Tom D

Looking at the GEFS it appears we'll start off quite mild but there are signs that high pressure could build over northern Europe mid-month which may eventually lead to chillier weather (at last!). I'll go with a slightly above average 6.9c.

My punt of 11.9 seems to be slightly off the mark for the month... it seems to have gone like a flash, with some very very mild conditions all month.

Sorry it's a bit late but I'll go for 11.9c. Currently the NW tracker is on 19.58... 9.8c above average, love that. Imagine the downward trend we could have. UK wide snow by the end of October anyone? Also, just looking at the year so far on the NW temp tracker page , I wonder if Mr Data could reveal whether there has been a year when the 4 months of June to September have ever had such a small difference in average daytime temperature? That page has it at 1.36 but the official statistics may be different. What is the 61-90 average range for these months?

Apart from their confusion about the Gulf Stream and Jet Stream, it's not that sensationalist until the 'deadly swells' part. I'm looking forward to a blustery day; isn't it going to be windier than what they got in New York with Irene, especially in the north-west...

Haha when can I book?

Just a bit too far north west of the small London storm here, although it's dark and raining, I can't hear any thunder. It's been a drenching day though, 10mm so far although there's been some heavy bursts of rain and sunshine in between.

Amazing. I agree that this could become just as popular as tornado chasing!

Another torrential downpour here, streams down the road and all just like earlier. So far 15mm of rain today.

Torrential rain with thunder and lightning here... proper soaking!!!

Surprised this rainfall hasn't got a warning out... looks like flash flooding in Dorset, Somerset and Hampshire. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-14575270

Overcast here this morning, 17.8c.

Wish I was at Wimbledon right now... the sound of the rain on the roof is incredible! Thunder and lightning too! Oh to be at home too in Herts... bit of a dull day here in Leicester...

Where the rain/storms are now is more west to where they were predicted, no? Still, most models see this current area moving over the Midlands with perhaps some homegrown storms later this evening SE of this region. Loving these charts... large hail and tornado warning from ESTOFEX.

That's interesting. Is there any particular reason why so many times in the 70s/80s this happened?

I've got a question that Mr Data may be able to answer... Has the 30c barrier been reached yet this year? If not.... In the records for the UK, what is (and when was) the longest delay between a 20c recording and a 30c recording? I have a recollection that this year 20c was reached in early April and it's only just now at the end of June that 30c is possibly going to be reached. Is there any information on this? Challenge: Answer that one

The best explanation I can offer is netweather's own... http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=stormforecast;sess= So on that chart, the reds/yellows/whites show the amount of energy where the numbers (like -11) show the Lifted Index. Pretty much good potential for storms to explode from apparently nothing, rather than so-called 'imports' where storms form over France and move up over the Channel. -11 LI is very good for the UK; you'd rarely see it below -4 usually and most often it's above 0.

Loving the Cape/LI charts for early next week. This is easily the best Cape/LI chart I've seen in my life. Bloody hell it could be good on Monday and Tuesday... I'm going to Leicester next week and it looks like my home county of Hertfordshire might do very well from this. Will be keeping an eye on this over the weekend.

This is easily the best Cape/LI chart I've seen in my life. Bloody hell it could be good on Monday and Tuesday... I'm going to Leicester next week and it looks like my home county of Hertfordshire might do very well from this. Will be keeping an eye on this over the weekend.

Seems to be a turning point in the charts as to whether it will be cooler or warmer again come the 18th onwards, the ECM going against the GFS. In any case, I think it will take something quite cool to get back down to my prediction of 11.5c by the end of the month.

Bit of thunder here in Leicester, sun has remained out the whole time it's been chucking it down.

With April looking like it's going to end up 12.2c+, I'll have a punt at May being fairly average, with cool and warm spells. 11.5c.

Let us not forget April 2008, when we had snowfall here early in the month. https://picasaweb.google.com/dupplawt/Snow6thApril2008?authkey=Gv1sRgCOSlh9DlnqyzGw#

How many months of March have been colder than the previous month of January...?

I've been well out the last two months, so hoping for a change in fortunes! My guess is 5.1c.