Tom D

An interesting article on BBC News this morning. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8615789.stm

An overcast start, quite dim. Temp: 7.4c Overnight low: 5.8c Dew point: 3c Humidity: 73% Wind: 4.3mph NNE Barometer: 1022mb 24hr rainfall: 1.1mm

Cool but bright and sunny, out of the wind feeling warm. Temp: 15.2c Feels like 12c Dew point: 3c Humidity: 42% Wind: 7mph N Barometer: 1025mb falling 24hr precip: 0mm

Overcast and cool with a chilly breeze, Temp: 14.2c Dew Point: 5c Humidity: 53% Wind: 4mph NE Barometer: 1028 falling 24hr rainfall: 0mm

Mostly cloudy, cool breeze. Temp: 13.8c DP: 2c Humidity: 45% Wind: 10mph NNE Barometer: 1028mb falling 24hr precip: 0mm

Top temp: 18.9c Min temp: 2.4c Current temp: 5.8c Dew Point: 2c Humidity: 75% Barometer: 1032mb Wind: Calm

Another beautiful day. Max temp: 19.9c Min temp: 1.1c Current: 8.0c Dewpoint: 4c Humidity: 74% Barometer: 1034mb steady 24hr precip: 0.0mm Wind: Calm

Mostly cloudy but bright, spells of sunshine. Feeling mild with a light breeze. Temp: 18.4c Overnight low: 1.1c Dew Point: 4.0c Humidity: 39% Wind: Variable 2.3mph Barometer: 1033mb steady 24hr Precip: 0mm

I'm hoping for a bright, dry and mild week from the 19th... which the ECM is not showing. It won't be too fun walking around Dartmoor with a northerly going.

A fine, bright start although more cloudy than yesterday. Temp: 14.7c Humidity: 66% Barometer: 1035mb steady. Wind: Calm Just noticed it fell to 1.1c last night!

Top temp: 17.1c Current temp: 5.9c Humidity: 70% Pressure : 1032mb steady Wind: 0mph/na Past 24hrs rainfall: 0mm.

Got my shiny new weather station today Much better than my old one which just gave temperatures! Anyway.. A beautiful sunny day here, pleasantly warm with a light breeze.

Really really heavy shower here right now, absolutely pelting down with a very gusty wind. Thermometer didn't survive the winter, but it's around 7c.

It's about time we had some warm weather, this winter has been fantastic but I'm sure I'm not alone in wanting to not have to wrap up every time I go out now. I'd still like the month to come out just below average in CET terms however it depends on how mild it gets next week and for how long. Currently March is 3.5c below average!

A glorious day here today - sunny and bright, feeling fresh in the air. There was a hard frost this morning. Currently 7c.

If this set up with heights to our north continues, how long will it be before any easterly flow becomes exceptionally warm? Surely by around May the continent will be getting a lot warmer; if our present set up occurred in July it would be scorching wouldn't it? As for the general outlook at present, I'd also back March at being below average. As long as we keep cold, clear nights it's going to prevent the CET getting too much above 5c.

+72 ECM looks VERY nice :lol: Looks like the GFS is on its own for this time so it's going to have to move in line, probably at the 18z. I can't imagine the ECM/UKMO moving away from this at that range.

It's been a glorious day here in Leicester; sunny almost all day, a light breeze and it actually felt spring like for the first time this year. Currently 6c.

People should have no doubt over snow possibilities in March, especially this early in March. We had snow in mid April in 2008 and in October of the same year in Hertfordshire, and not just snow falling, a good 3/4cm settling too. I wouldn't be surprised to see the 18z going with the ECM this evening, but then GFS is always full of surprises.

I quite like the ECM tonight - a short, potentially snowy event for England and Wales, then some settled sunshine and frosty weather. Perfect start to March IMO, some sunshine.

Something brief I've noticed this winter wrt to the major models (GFS, UKMO and ECM) is that the GFS usually picks up on blocking first, but then also shows the potential easterly with far too much potency compared to what ends up happening, so it inevitably downgrades the strength nearer the time. The UKMO has been reluctant to show an easterly even when both ECM/GFS have done (not sure how often this model has been correct in that situation though). The ECM usually progged an easterly further out in the run than the GFS and then bought it into the near/reliable timeframe with less potency than the GFS. That's just what I've noticed about the models and please disagree if I've said anything too idealistic.

The problem this evening is some of the biggest disagreement at +120 I've ever seen, so looking further is pointless. t+120 ECM UKMO GFS http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-120.png?12 The changes actually start around t+84.

I've just read this story on BBC News; http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8538060.stm It couldn't have already affected weather patterns could it?

It's puzzling how the GFS op has weakened the low so it is hardly a worthy feature of the synoptic setup by Sunday, whereas the ECM and COMAPS above show it to be at the other end of extreme. It's slightly worrying too as with a depth close to the ECM/COMAPs it would be a dangerous storm for NW Spain, France and possibly the south coast, not really something people should get excited about as loss of life would be a serious possibility with that storm. Looking through the ensembles, it's a mixed bag with some going for an ECM style deep low, some even shallower than the op. A little further out and uncertainty with the possible easterly; GFS pushes most of the cold over France again, whereas the ECM and UKMO look promising in the more reliable timeframe. As ever... we'll have to wait and see.

I said 5.3 for February and ended up well off the mark. I think it will stay cool, so I'm going to say 5.3c for March.