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Isabellesnanny

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Posts posted by Isabellesnanny

  1. All looks pretty dramatic according to posters on here but BBC weather didn't really seem to forecast anything very severe - do the professionals have more information to look at than is available to the general public. There have been an awful lot of times when very severe conditons seem to be forecast on here but the forecasters haven't gone along with these and have been proven correct so wondered what additional information they might have available?

  2. What is the forecast on NW based on? - according to that I wil most likely not be able to leave the house for 3 days as it has my postcode under 95% risk of snow from tommorow afternoon all the way through till Tuesday evening - NOT the impression I got from the forecast on the BBC News a few minutes ago.

    Do any of you go by NW forecast - never seems very acurate to me - one day last week I had a 95% chance of snow late afternoon when there was no snow forecast anywhere and nor did it arrive - seems to me to be a bit of a white elephant.

  3. not learnt owt yet mate have you! blum.gif lol

    i wonder how many cold lovers would be so keen on freezing conditions if it cost them what its going to cost me? £600-£800 a week.

    Must admit I can't understand the obsession with the cold and snowy conditions - I am ready for the warm weather- to be able to get out and about and enjoy doing things - beats sitting indoors with the heating blasting not being able to get anywhere.

  4. Perhaps you feel UK Met is wrong as it does not give you the cold you wish for. Don't let science get in the way of a good story?

    I have no idea which model is correct and neither do probably any of us on here. No doubt Exeter are also scratching their heads as they try to decipher what is the most likely outcome.

    The one thing that strikes me as a complete novice is that whatever model shows the desired outcome (generally cold) this seems to be the best . All I have seen recently is how dreadful GFS is but now it is showing cold the other models are rubbish or should be bined - very confusing for us learners.

  5. The more I look at these forums the more confused I become - particular if I had looked at the MODS threads first.

    Can anybody give me more of an idea whether we are predicted snow here ( I am in the Croydon area) we have a family member currently undergoing Chemotherapy and being stuck and unable to get to where you need to go because of the weather in those circumstances is pretty worrying.

    Sorry meant to post this in the Regional thread - not sure how I move it

  6. Just showing my complete lack of knowledge here but are the models showing cold rather than snow - Met Office update for Day 6-15 which was updated at 16.00 hrs is as follows;

    'Predominantly dry weather is likely to prevail over the UK through to the end of the month. Cloud cover will vary from day to day, but most areas should see at least some sunny periods. Western and southwestern parts have the greatest chance of seeing any rain as weather systems try to push in from the west at times. There may also be some wintry showers in eastern counties too. It now seems increasingly likely that there will be little change in this pattern through to the end of the month. Temperatures in most places will be close to normal at first, with no more than patchy frost by night, but a downward trend is likely later in February, with frost becoming more widespread and daytimes feeling rather cold'

    Do the models show much snow or is it just the lower temperatures and frosts ? Met Office does not seem to give any indication of snow other than some wintry showers.

    Apologies for the questions.

  7. Forgive my ignorance as I am pretty poor (well very poor in fact) at translating the maps. Can you tell me when temperatures will start to get colder - looking at forecasts for the week through to next Weds/Thurs temperatures are showing double figures - is this not going to be the case and if not when will we see temperatures start to fall again after mild blip we are now due to get?

    Thanks

  8. Completely agree. I have followed this forum for several winters now, and whilst the number of hugely useful posts and knowledgable members has increased, so have the the pointless comments. Mods, will probably delete this, but I'm tuning out for the rest of the winter, as I can just see the amount of model complaining/binning going through the roof in these final few weeks, and sadly this needs to go. Hopefully when I return, the ratio of useful posts to 'I'm binning this chart because it's not showing the next ice age' has increased!

    I have to agree - as a newbie it is very difficult to actually follow the models and peoples perceptions of them because dependant on people's bias they will find cold or mild whichever is their preference in that model - in fact as soon as you see the name of a poster you can pretty much work out what their post will say :) It would be a lot easier for those of us who are new on the boards to get a handle on the whole thing if the emotion was taken out of some of the posts and an unbiased opinion given.

  9. Sorry if this is off topic - not sure where else to post. As a real amateur just wondered what the Netweather forecasts ( 7 day/10 day) are based on - they seem to change so dramatically with each 6 hour whereas with the Metoffice forecast you can generally think that the next 24 hours is pretty much correct - for example hardly any snow for my region on the 4am run whereas by 10.00am snow everyday for almost the next 10 days.

    I am still struggling with the models so rely on the forecast to know what is going on but I am just confused as to why such drastic changes occur on this particular forecast which are not showing on others.

    Again sorry if off topic but would be grateful for your thoughts.

  10. Does anybody use the 10 day forecast on the NW homepage as a guide to how the weather is going to be?

    I check this regularly but have to say it seems only to be believed on the day - for example snow risk this morning for my area was Tuesday only about 30% - 2 hours late Tues/Weds 80%, Thurs 60% - seems to be pretty useless as a tool other than a now-cast at which stage I can just look out of the window.

  11. Think I am spending to much time on theses forums - especially model discussion which is up and down so much it is giving me a headache. Seems from looking on there that a cold spell with snow is pretty much on the cards for nest week however I am in the Croydon area and the 10 day forecast which all day had said 80% snow next Tuesday and Wednesday is now showing 0% Tuesday and 30% Wednesday - what do you believe. Is it just that the model discusson is ongoing and changing literally all of the time and the actual forecasts take a wider view? Very confused

  12. Hopefully this is not too of topic - apologies if this is the case as I am very new to this.

    It amazes me how charts and models that seemed to show that a cold/wintery interlude was not forthcoming this morning seemed to do a complete u-turn and now show something that everyone is getting excited about . Bearing this in mind, how likely is it that this scenario could also change at this stage?

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