Derecho

We will see, I think it will probably remain chilly most days until the 27th. After that is more uncertain, at this time of the year if you cut off the Arctic feed, suddenly easterlies can turn very warm but no sign of that yet. Looks like the chillier air may gradually dissipate but a coldish outlook overall, especially in the east.

EC 12z control has the CET finishing on 9.6C. Pretty close to the ensemble mean overall with the monthly CET dipping below 10C on the 23rd. According to this, first half CET would be 11.1C, second half would be 8.0C so quite a contrast.

I can see those darker skies just to the east of Hull from the top of my office. It is grim.

Whether we get temperatures slightly below normal or more substantially colder then normal, will depend on cloud cover. Cloudy days will suppress maximums a lot with the cold uppers. You can imagine a setup with the same T850s... cloudy days and clear nights will return much colder values then sunny days and cloudy nights.

The chilly weather over Central Europe keeps subtly getting upgraded, so to be fair to @Daniel* this is looking like quite the transition now till the end of the month given recent exceptional warmth. The warmth of earlier in the month is transferred to central Asia instead. Some above average temperatures in the Arctic for the first time in a while as the cold air bottled up there is moving into Central Europe. Global temps nudging downwards a tad as well from the record highs we have been seeing this April. The El Nino feedback perhaps beginning to wane somewhat.

EC00z control this morning has us finishing at 10.2C but this is on the mild side of the ensemble with a warm day on the 30th. EC 00z control GFS 12z operational however... Finishes at just 9.2C however this is on the cold side of the ensemble mean. 9.7C would be a more sensible option right in the middle.

I remember the very first night in Buckinghamshire when the pubs opened. We went out to my local and even with a jacket on it was far too cold. We endured it for the sweet taste of a post lockdown pint however. We also got two falls of snow that led to accumulations. The first half of the month in particular, was really cold.

Yes chilly minima will be present in the west, though if away from the chillier easterly feed it could get quite warm during the day in these areas.... ... but looking at the model output this morning it does look a bit on the chilly side widely into the later stages of the month with less of an east-west split. A CET of under 10C is possible.

BlueSkies_do_I_see Yup it wouldn't take much. We will probably end up with a chilly east and mild west of the UK, so where that boundary ends up will have a big bearing on the CET as Pershore and Stonyhurst are more western sites.

I think April 2021 has to be synoptically one of the most unusual months I can remember.

reef Maybe that is some outflow from the dying shower that just passed your area? It has been very windy here today, lots of howling noises... I remember one night early last April that saw a lot of branches fall off trees and bins blown over. I'm pretty sure Hull would have seen a gust even higher then 47mph that night but that might have been within a heavy shower that passed.

Today feels like a classic April showers day here. A pretty brisk wind but plenty of sunshine as the showers have eased off recently. A tad on the chilly side.

Latest 12z control from the EC is pretty nondescript with high pressure but on the chilly side for a small number of days. More so in the east with Stonyhurst or Pershore often being the warmest site. Makes sense given the overall pattern and the cooler air from the continent grazing the SE. However the EC12z control was on the colder side of the ensemble mean from the 24th to the 29th. So the CET drops down to 9.9C here. Early 10s guesses are looking good at the moment.

Daniel* Fair enough, just goes to show how warm it has been there though with these cooler temperatures being only just below the 81-10 average. GFS looks depressingly familiar at D10 but the EC remains rather chilly at this time with a high to the NE

Don Yes some cooler weather is certain for next week but milder weather seems to occur far more effortlessly these days. It won't take much for it to return.

WYorksWeather Another problem is you have got warmer then average SSTs around the UK so that is going to moderate cooler airmasses. If we get a retrogressing high to Greenland you might get a few daily CETs in the 4s or 5s but I don't think that will happen. Remember at the start of April the models were expecting cold at one stage but that remained further north and we ended up with cyclonic SW winds instead. It wouldn't surprise me if the high ends up closer to the UK tbh

The latest EC control has the CET holding up to 10.3C on the 23rd. Next week looks average at worst and the 21st and 22nd on the control actually return daily means above 10C so not much of a drop in the CET overall to be honest.

Scorcher Yup I certainly wouldn't call it a spectacular change by any means.

It's a much more settled outlook for sure. I just hope the high doesn't end up being further west as it'd result in something pretty showery over the east coast. The EC keeps the coldest air further east whilst the GFS briefly turns showery from the north at times but is a settled run all in all. The AIFS is the best model as the high is a bit further east which may allow for some warmer days albeit with some larger diurnal temperature ranges. A decent outlook overall though and pretty normal synoptics for once after the Soaking South-Westerlies (SSWs) that we've endured over recent months.

The 00z EC control did come in colder this morning but its also on the colder side of the mean. Early to mid 10s would be a good looking estimate at this early stage.

Research indicates that the amount of water vapour added to the atmosphere as a result of that eruption will lead to only +0.035C warming. Global temperatures over the past few months have been around 0.4C higher then what they were in the lead up to that eruption. Take away the 0.035C and the influence of El Nino and you still get an accelerating warming trend, regardless of whether Hunga Tonga erupted or not. Did the Tonga undersea volcano eruption cause this year's extreme heat? | Space WWW.SPACE.COM The 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano eruption may have contributed to this year's heat, but it's not causing climate change.

Evening all. Based on the EC 12z control we have a mild 3 days coming up which should lift the CET up to an impressive 11.6C after that. The northerly early next week is toned down here though the op and control are on the milder side of things. CET returns are still slightly above average but we don't get anything impressive after that. High pressure looks set to build later next week but at the moment it looks like we will get increased diurnal temperature ranges which as it stands look to stop high CET returns. Expect the CET to be around the high 10s though as we head into the last third of April. I don't think we'll beat 2011 but something above 11C is possible.

It looks like the longer range outlook (next week) is more anticyclonic. With a more north-westerly flow likely into next week you may be more sheltered too. It ain't much but it's a shift away from the moisture rich south-westerlies we have often had for months on end! You'd have thought that pattern would have broken into late March... Late March to early June usually see just as many easterly days as westerly on average. Last time we had a prolonged period of anticyclonic weather must be late May and into June? A truly awful period of weather, early September the exception

Good morning all from a windy Humberside. Yesterday's CET should come in around the mid 14s. Remaining mild today but turning little cooler briefly for midweek. Then we get some very mild weather from the 11th to 13th with some daily CETs in the teens. The 14th may be very mild too but Stonyhurst looks set to see the colder air from the northerly come in at that point. A slower advance of the northerly will yield a higher return for this date and maybe over subsequent days too. The EC 00z control was on the more colder side of the ensemble for that northerly but it is possible. A return to some milder weather after that sees the CET up to 10.8C by the 21st so still a long way above average. If the northerly doesn't materialise I think we have a shot of the warmest April on record as the CET could be as high as 11.7C by the 14th.

WYorksWeather Perhaps the source of the air at the surface wasn't particularly warm, it was a southerly wind at midday over the surface. (Upper wind would have been SW'ly going along isobars) Back in June 2019 we had an area of +20C 850s and surface temps were not much higher. This is because the breeze at the surface was from the North Sea and that cooler air was undercutting the warm uppers. The 29th of Feb 1960 synoptics were quite different to the above but a similar process may have been at play.