Derecho

The sun is out here! Morning Sunshine GIF – Morning Sunshine Blind – discover and share GIFs TENOR.COM Click to view the GIF

The absence of a CET update may be explained by a pause in the obs in Rothamstad later on yesterday, though the max had probably already been achieved by this point. Anyhow the CET estimates are as follows (monthly means in brackets): 5th: 6.8 (4.8) 6th: 5.7 (4.9) 7th: 6.5 (5.1) 8th: 6.5 (5.3) 9th: 8.3 (5.6) 10th: 7.6 (5.8) 11th: 6.7 (5.9) 12th: 5.6 (5.9) 13th: 4.4 (5.8) 14th: 4.5 (5.7) 15th: 5.2 (5.7) 16th: 8.1 (5.8) 17th: 9.7 (6.0) 18th: 8.7 (6.2) 19th: 9.7 (6.4) 20th: 8.6 (6.5) 21st: 7.3 (6.5) So according to the 12z EC control, rather mild this weekend, a cooler blip into next week and perhaps milder again after that. Nothing remarkable temperature wise but above average overall and a CET in the 7s still stands as a reasonable bet at this point.

I'm pretty sure this time last year there was a thread called 'worryingly dry' after that February and then that's when our unsettled rut began (excepting mid-May to late June - that feels like a very long time ago now!). So hopefully this thread will initiate the change to worryingly dry and sunny weather again.

Bear in mind Sudden South Westerlies usually bring warmth across the UK In all seriousness however, I expect we will see a blocked pattern throughout this Spring but we are getting to the time of year where that doesn't automatically equate to cold...

Just to add some further interest to this thread. The new EC weather model which incorporates AI machine learning is now available on WZ. Will be interesting to see how it performs!: Wetterzentrale - Top Karten - AIFS Europe 06Z WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE Wetterkarten AIFS Europe 06Z It's on the colder side of things for its latest run.

Yesterday came in with a CET of 3.4C so a rather chilly opening to the month. Turning gradually milder up until the 9th/10th looks a reasonable bet at the moment but it could go either way. I think we are going to go down the mild route with March bringing in yet another CET well above average. The EC 00z control goes for each day... (with monthly mean in brackets) 3rd: 4.1 (3.9) 4th: 4.8 (4.1) 5th: 6.3 (4.6) 6th: 5.9 (4.8) 7th: 7.8 (5.2) 8th: 7.8 (5.5) 9th: 7.7 (5.8) 10th: 8.4 (6.0) 11th: 7.0 (6.1) 12th: 5.1 (6.0) 13th: 2.1 (5.7) 14th: 4.7 (5.7) 15th: 7.1 (5.8) 16th: 8.5 (5.9) 17th: 9.1 (6.1)

CET yesterday should come out to around 7.6C, so a monthly mean of 7.77C, about 0.1C short of 1779.

That's a brave prediction in this day and age... (depending on the average period you are looking at)

Addicks Fan 1981 March 1995 was dominated by a chilly polar maritime flow from the west or north-west rather then easterlies.

Ironically the 18z GFS is milder, could go anywhere this month but the safe bet is probably to go in the 7s like many seem to be doing.

If we were to treat the MJO as gospel we should see an easterly flow around the 10th but the composites are weak: Phase 3 Phase 4 Not much of a signal there at all. Phase 5 has a mild signal but we wouldn't notice the impacts of that till the end of the month. At that point the SSW may also be having an impact. It's difficult to predict how March will turn out at the moment. The good news is it looks more settled after the low pressure clears away but we don't know if we will get a chilly easterly or a warm SE / Southerly wind. It's all just random chaos at the moment but with westerlies receding as they usually do come spring.

How can you trust the MJO if you can't trust the models producing the forecasts?

Worth noting the EC control is pretty cold with an easterly setting up through FI, the forecast CETs are: 1) 5.5 2) 3.8 3) 4.0 4) 5.0 5) 7.9 6) 7.0 7) 7.0 The CET up to this point is 5.8C then it gets cold dropping to 4.2C on the 15th... 8th) 3.8 9) 3.0 10) 3.9 11) 3.9 12) 2.6 13) 1.4 14) 1.7 15) 1.8 GFS has a CET of 5.2C to the 7th but then remains steady only climbing to 5.6C by the 15th. So not looking particularly mild for this first half.

What you've said contradicts the data I've got above though and using the method I've got above the value is indeed very close to 6.4C for the 28th. Otherwise how can the below freezing minima for the 27th be explained if they occurred before 0900? I don't think there is any need for that tone, people are only trying to understand some data that is poorly documented.

This has been the most accurate forecast so far....

So just some stuff I found on the CET series. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/releases/HadCET_v2_guidance_notes.pdf The above documentation confirms it is Rothamstad, Pershore College and Stonyhurst. Here is also the paper about the construction of the CET series https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/Parker_etalIJOC1992_dailyCET.pdf This bit does seem to confirm that the maxima and minima obs have been taken up to 9am since 1877. However what confuses me is that the max and min CET yesterday came out at 8.2C and -0.7C respectively. The minimums yesterday at Rothamstad, Pershore College and Stonyhurst were 1.7C, 2.6C and 3.8C respectively all recorded at 9am yesterday morning. So they are too mild but the minimums the earlier in the night at hourly points were -0.1C, -0.8C and -0.6C at these 3 sites. So it must be the minimum from the previous night up to 9am and the maximum on the day up to 9pm... that can be the only explanation...

Rheidolinflood It must have been Pershore college that was used because the 0900 to 0900 CET from yesterday according to the Meto was 4.8C. The minimum from this morning won't come into play for todays mean too much. It was already up to 2.6C by 9am this morning.

BlueSkies_do_I_see The morning of the 28th drags down the CET a bit with it turning increasingly milder as the day progresses, however with yesterday's mean coming in higher then expected I believe the record will go. I've got 5.8, 8.7 and 6.2 as the estimated means for the last 3 days. The 29th will hinge quite a bit on the timing of the cold front, just like on the 23rd. However that mean also came in higher then expected. It'd be interesting to see how exactly the Met Office record the CET, it seems to be 0900 to 0900 max+min / 2 but going by the weatherobs data there are still some differences. Annoyingly the EC tables on meteociel only have 6h increments, whilst the GFS pretty much always runs too cool anyway.

Summer Sun Thanks, a CET of 6.9C for the rest of the month is required to beat the record. EC00z has a mean of 6.9C for the last 3 days...

Metwatch I used to be a denier as well up until about 18 because I just found global warming too depressing and looked for arguments against the predictions. Uni sorted that out for me but ironically trying to find holes in the CC argument is one of the things that really got me into studying weather and climate as a whole.

BlueSkies_do_I_see It's still close, today should return another CET in the 3s though rather then the 6s because of the forecast minima for tonight. Based on 24 hour means from 0000 to 0000 I have the CET finishing at 7.87C. Based on the max/min from 0600 to 0600 I have 7.81C February 1779 had a CET OF 7.87C so it is very very close. 1779 wins it to 3 decimal places

WYorksWeather I agree totally but the fact I think we will resort to geoengineering sums up how bleak my view on climate change is. We are already geoengineering it to become warmer but I think out of desperation and an unwillingness to implement sufficient action, that's unfortunately what it will come to. We all know how much of a joke the Paris agreement was. I have no confidence in politicians ability to deal with the matter.

I think this is the biggest concern, positive feedback mechanisms which only serve to amplify the impacts we are having. Sadly I think geoengineering is going to become the last resort option we will exercise. Otherwise there will be mass migration out of areas that are too difficult to live in (rising sea levels, extreme heat, drought) and warfare over water and food shortages. I've looked at forum posts from around 15 years ago at times and they have aged so badly, there has definitely been an attitude shift. Numerous posts back then were hyping up a mini ice age or something along those lines.

Scorcher Agreed, I just like to follow things with close interest when there are potential records to be set! The analysis just a conclusion of what a model is showing but we know of course there are caveats - especially when it comes to cloud and overnight minima... working as a winter roads forecaster in the past makes me painfully aware of that It was similar to September last year when we were uncertain of whether the record would go or not.