Derecho

WYorksWeather It's been overlooked on here (easy to see why it would be) but EC 12z member 7 goes for the most bonkers scenario for mid month with this early heatwave... The 20C hpa line covers much of the UK at the above point. If that scenario came off, we'd be looking at a CET of around 13.5C to the 18th and a CET of 17C from the 12th to 18th!! I doubt it will though it's a crazy run.

Cold and sunny without hesitation. In that kind of weather you often see good diurnal temperature ranges and slacker winds. So when the sun is shining it can feel deceptively warmer during the day then a mild, wet and windy pattern. Good weather for cycling, jogging etc too.

baddie Very windy every day... if it wasn't raining it'd be good weather for drying the laundry

Unless meteociels table tools are playing up it is looking like a remarkable start to April with a CET of 11.8C on the 7th according to the 00z EC control. Some cooler weather briefly after that but not for long (if that does indeed happen!) Note however, the EC is keenest to push some very warm air over us next weekend. Even with the biased EC maxes, they may be a bit too warm here.

Great month with the first 2 weeks in August being fantastic. Don't remember the second half as much but the heat did break down with thunderstorms that caused severe flooding in Lincolnshire. We got about half an hour of torrential rain here with a strong smell of petrichor after such a long period of dry weather.

Just seen a flash of lightning and gone through some hail on a train south of Doncaster

Based on the EC control this morning. the CET looks very warm indeed for the start of April. Gone is the push of cold air south and it is now being replaced with a very mild cyclonic south-westerly airflow. Maybe quite plumey at times if things allign right? There are still a few chilly ens in there but the Control isn't the warmest. So whilst still looking wet it is warm with minima holding up quite well. I think a lot of people should be upping their CET guesses (though I see quite a few have gone for 10C+. Worth noting however that the GFS has low pressure continuously crossing us on its output rather then slowly backing west like the EC does. UKMO and GFS also push some chillier air down a bit more in the middle of next week.

If I could rank all the Springs I remember well... 2009 and 2023 I was away for a good portion of May...

April 2022 I remember had some snow showers at the start when I was in Buckinghamshire. It became a lot better after the first week and was a very dry month in the end. This followed a great March. May was more on the unsettled side but was very warm and we had some decent storms mid-month. Spring 2021 saw some great weather at the end of March. April was very cold but mostly by night with many sunny days that felt quite nice. May 2021 however was a shocker.

Last year we got away with a reasonable April... however I think this one I could be heading into a stinker here too. This week funnily enough with the cyclonic SW winds has been pretty nice here at times but we have rode our luck so far.

Yup, I remember last April people were saying it was several degrees colder then average and terrible yet that wasn't the case at all. I can imagine if we saw an April like 1998 or 2012 people would be having a complete breakdown.

A CET of 8.1C is likely to finish the month if the EC00z control is anything to go by. The EC however tends to underestimate things a bit, even with me adding 1C to the raw maxes. I'll log the maxes and mins to see whether I can improve my adjustments from the raw model data. The EC raw model seems to particularly underestimate temps at Pershore College. Anything up to 8.3C is I think possible maybe even slightly higher. Last update from me though as I turn my attention to April next.

Yup I remember the stats in the south were poor for sunshine and rain in the far south but we was ok up here thankfully!

That's two EC runs in a row that have had a huge Greenland block to kick off April. We've not had a bad April here since 2016. 2017 was often good (though I was down south then). 2018 was more unsettled if I recall but very warm, especially around the London marathon. 2019 was great. 2020 was completely dry here I think and sunny throughout. 2021 saw a fine April, cold and wintry at the start but sunny and dry after that. 2022 had some snow showers at the start but rapidly improved and was yet again very dry. 2023 was decent in the end despite some unsettled weather earlier on. In the end it was quite dry here with plenty of decent days but no notable warmth. Could 2024 be my first poor April in 8 years?

Looks like the CET guesses on Sunday were pretty close to the mark. After a sharp rise over recent days, the CET looks to level off. Not particularly cold according to the EC control but the 27th cold have a cold night with the control a lot milder then other ens. The control is generally one of the less warm members later on. I'd say a guess in the early 8s is looking good now.

The rest of the month according to the 12z control: Should get into the 8s by the 20th and then some colder weather for around the 25th. The EC quickly goes milder again after that but if the cold stays we could be looking at mid 7s. If any cold is brief and it quickly turns milder, mid 8s are possible. Note the max the EC has for Pershore College is already underestimated by quite a bit for today.

Metwatch Yes I do find it interesting that papers which have looked back on the UK climate on longer timescales have mentioned previous centuries had more frequent and more damaging hailstorms.

The CET for today should come in at around 11.7C. According to the EC 12z control, it looks very mild from here in the closer term with the odd chilly night bringing in a closer to average daily CET. The 15th may fluctuate a bit depending on the timing of colder air. 13th: 11.7 (6.6) 14th: 10.7 (6.9) 15th: 10.6 (7.1) 16th: 6.3 (7.1) 17th: 11.8 (7.4) 18th: 10.6 (7.6) 19th: 10.1 (7.7) 20th: 9.5 (7.8) 21st: 5.5 (7.7) 22nd: 7.7 (7.7) 23rd: 9.8 (7.8) 24th: 9.7 (7.8) 25th: 10.8 (8.0) 26th: 12.4 (8.1) 27th: 13.1 (8.3) 28th: 11.9 (8.4) So high 7s looking like a good bet into the last week of March. After that is anybody's guess, the control is one of the warmest members in the later stages.

Will it equate to cold though? I think we'd have to go down the Greenland High route for that, April 2021 type synoptics. It's a contrast to late March 2013 when the continent was still very cold. I think there is too much of a focus on stratospheric winds sometimes, we can become hooked on these charts when the jigsaw pieces aren't in place for a cold spell to happen. Sure some northern blocking is a good bet... but easterly winds are common as we head into late March through to mid-june anyhow. Does the stratosphere get more focus and attention then it deserves? It's fascinating and there is some good science behind it but it's renewed focus in recent years is likely due to the BFTE and the succession of poor winters that have preceded and followed it.

raz.org.rain July 1808 had a particularly hot day with some interesting reports from the heatwave that month. Apparently Hull recorded 34C, Suffolk 37C and there was a historic hailstorm in SW England that did huge damage. 1808 United Kingdom heatwave - Wikipedia EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG Though the exposures of thermometers at this time and hyperbole in weather diaries means some information back then may not be so reliable...

We saw with July 2022 we don't even need heat in place for that long. If we get a scenario where it does linger in place I could see 43C possible in the SE or Cambridgeshire though like 2022 a prolonged period of drier weather in the months beforehand is a huge help.

This post aged like milk

damianslaw I think given few Marches have had a CET above 8C, I think it is notable in the context of the whole CET series. We can't just take the 1991-2020 period in isolation and play down the figure. We may see colder weather to end the month but a figure in the 7s would still be likely. We have an Ssw event to watch out for but that doesn't guarantee cold and with the continent so mild already we would need something sourced from the Arctic. Given the way this winter has gone and the record breaking global temperatures, persistent mild conditions are a safer bet.

You wouldn't want to be to the north of Iceland if that came off!

The CET should be up to 5.8C by the 10th I reckon, 7.8C for the 9th and 7.4C for the 10th looking likely figures. From here it looks like we are going to go through a prolonged very mild period, I've got the following daily means from the EC 12z Control with monthly means in brackets: 11th: 7.7 (6.0) 12th: 8.9 (6.2) 13th: 11.5 (6.6) 14th: 11.4 (7.0) 15th: 12.1 (7.3) 16th: 10.7 (7.5) 17th: 11.7 (7.8) 18th: 9.9 (7.9) 19th: 11.5 (8.1) 20th: 9.1 (8.1) 21st: 9.9 (8.2) 22nd: 10.7 (8.3) 23rd: 7.5 (8.3) 24th: 4.0 (8.1) 25th: 4.6 (8.0) So yet another exceptionally mild month most likely with those in the high 7s or early 8s looking good. Worth noting the EC 12z control makes less of a deal out of that colder sector on the 20th then the OP.