Daniel*

I don’t think I’ve posted here in over a week… there are evidently strong hints of weakened Atlantic flows into early March quite a strong blocky signal in EPS. Pressure also looking higher over Scandinavia, it points to me an above average chance of winds to draw from east or southeast, there is though a big spread in potential temps but definitely drier. Meteorological winter might well end shortly, but as we saw in 2013 and 2018. March on occasion rare thing down here, can remind us of proper winter, which this winter has failed to do so. NAO

It should drop 0.1C today and stay there I can’t see it being stuck at 8C we’re probably looking at a very tiny difference with warmest.

Derecho hi I use meteociel as far as I know it’s official station. WWW.METEOCIEL.FR Relevés horaires des observations météo de Pershore ( United Kingdom ) . Températures, pression, précipitations, vent en temps réel

Min this morning -2.6C Pershore -2C Rothamsted 0.2C Stonyhurst looks to return a very similar mean to yesterday around 3C which is colder than what Derecho has.

quite cold today… Pershore 3.1C Rothamsted 2.7C Stonyhurst 3.4C = 3.1C

5C Rothamsted 4.7C Stonyhurst 5C Pershore

I don't agree, assuming Feb finished now it would be 1.6C above the record warmest (1990) at Heathrow. December 2015... practically 3C above second warmest 2023 closely followed by 1974. That was a level up I'd say while this month is still exceptional.

Simple. Those are continental climates, different climate to ours much less maritime influenced. What are you expecting?

Yes my mistake but fact remains it’s exceptional for relatively dry London.

Awful

30C in March? That’s hilarious we haven’t even had 30C in May in 19 years in London (2005).

Of course EPS experienced a massive bust but similarly to latest GFS run interest in -NAO in early March.

The man has spoken…

No. Slacker winds are in forecast later this week if anything if clear skies… temps are likely to be comfortably subzero. We all know all models are poor with nocturnal cooling especially GFS,

Mate that’s exactly what you’re doing going by GFS op. The ultimate cherry pick. There is consensus amongst EC and GEFS for a generally unsettled cool ish westerly flow into early March. Models do a better job with these more normal patterns.

It was at very top end of ensemble vast majority are maintaining the cooler and more unsettled weather into early March.

That’s clearly not based on ECM 00z E.g. Birmingham 23rd 6C 24th 4C 25th 2.5C 26th 4.5C 27th 2C

For all said about background signals ultimately this winter have experienced a strong El Niño… the most hostile ENSO for cold weather. Since 1950 there has been only 4 such winters…1972/73, 1982/83, 1997/98, 2015/16 none of these were cold, often very mild. In midst of already higher global temperatures, it cannot be startling to see why we have struggled and southern air streams have been powerful with record warm SSTs. Next winter it’s very likely we will see La Niña conditions so hopefully a fresh slate…

Well seasonal models did say backloaded winter?

I’ll have to correct you 7C maxes is not average in London at end of February the lowest average max is 8.4C in January. The normal in late Feb is 10C. It’s below average evidently if it was January, it would be a bit colder say 5C.

Never said anything about settling….

More of your classical cold zonal further on pub run, snow would be able to fall at lower levels.

The cooler and cyclonic weather is here to stay according to EPS with heights remaining withdrawn from Europe in Atlantic Ocean. I’d expect the modelling to perform much better with these more zonal patterns.

T168 looks rather slidey there, it can still be possible to see a snow event from an unremarkable cold set up. Low heights/thicknesses help.

One thing for sure it’s going to feel markedly colder after all this much milder weather. The skiers in Scotland will be delighted by outlook.