Daniel*

EPS goes very strongly with extensive high lat blocking further into February something is brewing here.

UKMO looks snowy at face value but lack of cold air is concern.

All looking swell from the fundamentals did anyone see EC control? It must have been quite the spectacle AO nosedives off the map. No doubt major SSW from that. A cold March surely doesn’t have an insignificant probability this year.

People follow output too black and white the situation is fluid and finely poised looking at EPS there does seem to be appetite for NAO to go more negative mid month onwards and so colder weather has potential to lock in. Quite possible we could be looking at a cold February the coldest since 2018, albeit with a very mild beginning the possibility is there and I don’t think tiny. El Niño winters are more backloaded on average.

The trend is our friend at the moment number of colder runs increasing. 12z eps yesterday and today for Birmingham.

This is really tough the month will begin exceptionally mild but I can see some cold weather perhaps most persistent of winter. I’ll go with 3.9C and 65mm thanks.

I think some need to use some common sense, if there is significant uncertainty for the period around 8th this will have a knock on effect further on. While models might be generally showing the same thing after the period of high uncertainty it might be read totally wrong.

There seems to be more enthusiasm for progression into phase 8 mid month - timing wise this feels like 2018.

Generally the overnight guidance was an improvement. GEM latest and previous UKMO ICON

Us hardcore snow enthusiasts will take it any time of the year!….

Day 10 mean 00z and latest 12z, low heights are pushing further south. Notice again Scandinavia becoming very cold.

No surprise to see det runs GFS & ECM playing with a wedge.. MJO has moved into phase 7 at decent amplitude this would manifest into second week of Feb with heights expected to fall to our south. February has been delivering more than January in recent years 2018, 2021 and 2024???

GFS making more of a colder northerly builds on from 06z. Not a silly timeframe either.

Was shown on ECM 12z yesterday but dropped overnight. Clearly NWP are toying with something they don’t yet have a good grip on. Likely MJO related I’d say.

Almighty differences between this run and ECM 00z turns wintry in Scotland from day 6.

I’m just reading the output how you perceive it is another matter. These are the very basics as far as I’m concerned. Let me post this again. There’s an already quite a robust signal for a fall of pressure in Iberian peninsula, wetter weather from ~10th Feb there is no wishful thinking about that. Let these charts speak for themselves.

Using 10th Feb to illustrate the previous three EPS means oldest to newest. Becoming increasingly clear it will become more cyclonic in Europe. MSLP in Madrid …. 1035mb to ~1015mb good signal for wetter weather down there…

Wrong, it’s taken from EPS mean and has been quite consistent of late of scrubbing euro heights.

Looks like a frosty end to January in CET zone.

Strong signal for Euro heights to dissipate..

Cold and sunny well into spring is a delight April 2021 was a great month. I live in middle of London I don't crave warmth we have plenty of that.

This is unfair… cold weather was identified in January weeks in advance the timing of onset was also correct how it unravelled is another discussion the MJO lost amplitude this was not foreseen by models at beginning, but to say the teleconnections have been useless is totally wrong it helps give a broad picture not a back yard perspective. It doesn’t tell you if you’re going to see a big dumping of snow. I’d rather say you go by gut than anything else, it’s what experience taught you? Well weather forecasting does not work like that that’s not forecasting. Scientific explanations have been outlined you’re the one purposely ignoring them as junk.

What will be said though February will be ultimate test of seasonal models and the winter really as a whole. It was this month the seasonal models went to town with potential for prolonged cold spell and more durable northern blocking. Not other months where cyclonic Atlantic dominated weather was more favoured and that has verified in most part. Hopefully late winter can restore some faith in NWP which has taken a knock.

You’re making a serious mistake just focusing on UK. Look at bigger picture ECM 12z is best run in 2 weeks? Trop vortex vacates from Greenland, euro heights eroding to south, heights opening up in North Atlantic possibly MJO related. It shows it doesn’t require spectacular blocking to drastically changes our fortunes.

Definitely feels model fatigue has crept in ECM not without interest… wintry in far north, pressure needs to drop to south.