Daniel*

The met added this today, evidently this is rather unclear in guidance at present but they must be seeing something. Drivers look more supportive of colder weather patterns in next few weeks in context of dying +IOD.. robust eQBO, El Niño starting to moderate and more climatological support for back loaded cold. Only time will tell but I doubt models have captured this period very well especially with evolving MJO in a slow orbit in phase 7, I do think it’s unlikely we see something significant in first 10 days of February but I do think the month as a whole is still quite open. “There is a chance colder conditions could then become established more widely during the first full week of February, with increased chance of wintry weather, especially northern and central UK”

Wrong year

Hemispherically the latest GFS is very good albeit at day 10+… scrubs high heights in Europe, blocking extends our side of hemisphere. Trop vortex looks on ropes here.

Considerable pressure drop expected in Europe towards mid February if we can manage some high lat blocking courtesy of MJO, it’s looking more likely towards Greenland than Scandi the potential for wintry weather is there. The winter is not over with yet wouldn’t surprise me also if March is not without interest, but of course that’s not ideal for many.

@WYorksWeather I don’t completely agree while they are valid the unpredictable and sparse nature of these foehn records can be more easily blown away than low level sites. Perhaps in past we underachieved?

There was nothing particularly exceptional/unprecedented about air mass today. This is a case of the perfect wind direction ect for extreme foehn it should not be compared with February 2019.

First up ICON keen on something colder a week from now… tpv drained into Scandi…

Better before day 10 on GFS 18z, ultimately similar in our locale but upstream much more amplified.

Starting to head in right direction worth noting the GEFS seem to have identified the likely return of -NAO/-AO before EPS.

Hmmm this is a start, it’s been looking dire for ages…. the return of -NAO in early Feb? we can also see the stratospheric vortex looks to be more shoved away from North Atlantic into northern Russia thus more blocking opportunities for -NAO I’d say. MJO forecasts also consolidating on phase 7. I expect we will have some better output on the way very soon.

Not sure this is entirely relevant but I thought it would be of interest with recent discussion. I recently plotted January mean temperature the station is Heathrow and the trend for past 30 years has been rather flat, with 10 year moving average. This contrasts with December and February. The idea this winter month in particular is rapidly changing does not conform with temperature data, to have memories of those cold Januaries of 1980s for example you will have to be at least 40 years old. The reality is a rather large segment of the population has never experienced frequent cold midwinters. This is not a new revelation it has been happening for decades now. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5023136

Not sure this is entirely relevant but I thought it would be of interest with recent discussion. I recently plotted January mean temperature the station is Heathrow and the trend for past 30 years has been rather flat, with 10 year moving average. This contrasts with December and February. The idea this winter month in particular is rapidly changing does not conform with temperature data, to have memories of those cold Januaries of 1980s for example you will have to be at least 40 years old. The reality is a rather large segment of the population has never experienced frequent cold midwinters. This is not a new revelation it has been happening for decades now.

I think the met office update is more a reflection of what models are showing not that it’s necessarily right. ECMWF and most of guidance now converging on entering phase 7 this weekend factor a 10 day lag. Surely with rising AAM which I hear GFS especially has a low bias an opportunity can arise before mid point of Feb? Unless vortex scuppers northward blocking potential. Feeling sceptical at the moment in general.

GEFS seem more interested in hemispheric reshuffle... maybe there will be further vortex stress in February, although I suppose many would be against that with spring not far. Seasonal models have been pointing for months towards most extensive northern blocking in late winter and spring. It would be very predictable we get the synoptics we crave out of season.

That may be but El Niño winters are known for being more backloaded, so the dice is slightly more in our favour than it would be during Nina winter. GLOSEA was clearly very interested in -NAO this month which it usually isn't.

Murmurs of a less hostile state into early Feb… a work in progress! Still a long way to go….

Evidently a way to go with this but Met Office musing of a cold spell mid month would tie nicely with such a development.

Exceptionally mild average next week? I’m not wholly sold on that. Looks quite alternate on ECM 12z with nearer normal temps in second half of week. Birmingham fairly representative of CET zone mild days but cool nights.

It’s nothing to about ignoring it. That can still be done separately but it is the convention to compare with latest 30 year averages for current climate. The World Meteorological Organisation are not respected by climatologists. They maintain the 56.7°C in Death Valley in 1913 was highest temperature measured on Earth even though it has been totally disproven. Utterly useless.

Virtually all meteorological organisations all around the world have moved to 1991-2020. Wake up, good heavens that climate does not exist anymore. It is not representative of modern climate which we experience.

Recent runs from GFS has been taking AO negative in early Feb the latest especially so, I’d say this development is important. GEFS

This might have gone under some radars. Very noteworthy for such a strongly maritime influenced climate… info -11C was the confirmed low on morning of 18th.

Appears the El Niño is in terminal decline after peaking in late December as strong El Niño, it is the 2nd strongest El Niño of 21st century, will this have implications for late winter and early spring? I’m not sure over next few weeks, but a weakened El Niño is better for winter prospects in general. Our last strong El Niño being 2015/16 the mildest winter on record in London.

Yes Pershore -7.3C/5.3C = -1C Rothamsted -4.7C/4.6C = -0.1C Stonyhurst -2.1C/5C = 1.5C Gives 0.13C or 0.1C