Daniel*

I think the premature jitters is a good illustration to look at bigger picture the -NAO block is the biggest influencer on pattern forcing down cold troughing into Europe.

It’s coming south

There a few cold spots known to get much colder, ECM 12z had -41C near Sweden/Finland border on Thursday night.

I think most are unbothered but we really should be talking more about extreme cold forecast in northeastern Europe. ECMWF model is showing temps locally near to 30C below normals next Thursday a large area 20C below normal in coldest month of winter. Cold not seen in many years, goes to show what can still be seen in a warming world.

In full if you’re interested… there’s clearly appetite for further bite of cherry.

No, you seem to lack foresight low pressure is undercutting underneath the UK high that chart is a holding position it could evolve more favourably in days after, you’re ignoring the WAA wafting to our N/NE. It is not flat see yellows to our north that’s not insignificant heights.

Anyone would think Azores is ridging a death ridge into Europe that’s clearly not being shown, even lower heights are undercutting into Spain at the end of ECM 12z with finger of +ve heights stretching out to our north, could that go towards Scandi? Regardless let’s get medium range sorted out before fretting about day 10, there’s plenty of potential.

I honestly don’t know what people are talking about saying ‘delayed’ and using ECM 00z as an earlier guide which was on extreme end is not the way to go. This is most positive day so far, growing agreement of amplification towards our west pushing north with pressure lowering in Europe, how this amplification behaves is quite uncertain, but the direction is certainly cold if much colder to now. We will need to give it a few days but these colder synoptics are getting closer.

Impressive cold signal from GEFS the mean has 850hPa of temps of -6C by 9th in London, for over 10 days that is something of note. It would only likely trend colder the closer we get.

Things are tracking as expected the EPS has been revealing the change into second week of Jan for some days now and has been consistent, nothing has been pushed back and cold signal strengthens. Winds from NE direction early in following week seem to be favoured.

It’s all about following trend before you start picking up the minor details which is a pointless exercise, still a lot to iron out but the direction is certainly colder, here is 12z EPS from 27th, 28th and latest 29th for London.

I’d say you can bet a small fortune we will see a spell of -NAO, there seems to be no avoiding it.

Well if that doubted you, see GEFS the op is one of top of pack by 5th.

How so? Lows are in time more generally southerly tracking and weaker.

Classic GFS when it doesn’t know what it is doing, blowing up lows. This run is for the bin.

A late merry Christmas all, the weather has been so awful lately painful memories of 2015. Here’s to something representing winter in early 2024…

Typically when we see a SSW quite often it is preceded by +NAO/+AO, even following as strong westerlies are flushed down to the trop. The fact zonal flows are already weaker, helped by Canadian warming et al, and these indices are coming on board before a minor/major SSW is clearly a good thing. And it would be sensible to assume this would help to sustain -NAO/-AO for foreseeable. I don’t think that’s wishcasting just common sense clearly the probability of a colder than normal January is somewhat higher than normal on recent years with also potential for cold to establish on longer timescales.

No real complaints here.. 2m temp anomaly out to 11th Jan on 12z EPS mean the first week of Jan is looking overall colder than normal especially further north, with cold deepening and becoming more widespread into week 2.

Kasim no doubt would have dismissed cold potential in Jan 2013. On occasion things can work in surprising ways under the right background conditions.

I’m not totally following the mood of this run I don’t think it’s terrible and a fast quick to wintry cold is not expected within next 10 days so be realistic with your expectations. it’s quite ordinary evolution what leads into Scandi heights with Iberian ridge giving helpful WAA. See change in 48 hours… ridging is going north, low heights in Central/Southern Europe… we know with MJO and weakening zonal flow, heights will want to gravitate poleward….

Your post is off topic and the obvious does not need to be stated. This is a thread to discuss model output, this place would be dead if you policed it, whether description of otherwise at day 1 or 16 it is perfectly acceptable.

This is one of very last frames from EPS, Jan 10th, it’s noteworthy at such an advanced lead to see greens in Benelux near 5C below normals evidence there is a lot of appetite already to roll some decidedly cold air west. There is evidently an already a strong signal for a significant cold outbreak in western Russia near 10C below normal, on mean at day 16 is crazy. This looks to be where there will be a fragment of polar vortex. I can’t see us complaining about shortage of cold to east. I would expect us to see more beast style synoptics in future whether they verify I don’t know but the possibility is clearly much higher than normal.

24 hour change in 12z EPS for London this is start in right direction…. adding Birmingham

Pretty big change overnight EPS no longer favouring a mild start to New Year.

Latest EC46 is pornographic for winter enthusiasts, it intensifies the -NAO blocking into early February during major disruptions we tend to see several waves of much reduced zonal wind in trop. This is not your typical cold potential..