Daniel*

Odds on to be a record warm September in London, already seems quite clear which is alarming…. https://x.com/thesnowdreamer/status/1699165354113499222?s=61&t=cYYkjFDEgIgUESXd7oZvxg

16.1C and 56mm thanks

Eh? London including central London has its most significant fall of December snow since 2010. In my part of zone 2 we had cover for a week longer than BFTE. https://x.com/joyce_karam/status/1602078654791843840?s=61&t=cYYkjFDEgIgUESXd7oZvxg

Surprised this thread is this busy that just tells you everything about the state of this convective season intense rain here in central London after 10pm, had about 10mm in half a hour of course nothing electrical.

Howdy all, I’m currently in Rome as of yesterday, it’s hot here… 32C today after weeks of low 20s gloom in London, it is a bit of an adjustment. Finding a shady spot in afternoon is important to stay cool, it can be a challenge, and eating out late when sun is down. I see ECM 12z takes temps here to 40s late next week, thankfully I’ll be well gone, here 4 nights! No doubt there will be significant heat in near continent again. In contrast to July perhaps we have a better chance of it advecting our way especially in SE with less strong Atlantic influence. Nothing particularly warm from tonight’s Euro although we can usually add 1-2C to daytime values, but it does have a widespread tropical night, highlighting the very real potential for very high minima. I do find late summer nights are some of most sticky and uncomfortable as the seas at at their warmest, the lengthening night not yet significant enough for much cooling.

Stunning summers day in London literally we have had to wait a whole month! And my perfect temperature 23C

This July gone was duller than 1988 in London. it was dullest since 1981. Let's be real it's been pants for high summer, 31 days since central London last had 25C.

Are you listening to yourself? 20 years ago was only 2003 of which this year remains record breaking in European countries like France, the climate has not warmed as much as you speak of in this time not even by 1C, so where you get additional 3C from I have no idea. Estonia further east has been on warm side of jet stream lately while much of Europe has seen much below average temperatures.

I think cloud is anticipated maybe it’s pessimistic.

What on earth is that 14 day forecast based on? EPS mean for London

Very poor start to August… Heathrow is at 70% of average August rainfall only 5 days in, continuing on from a crappy cloudy July I don’t think anyone can say it has been cold, but today did feel rather fresh could have passed for October. Not enjoying this weather but this thread is active and is a source of daily entertainment.

It’s the evolution of ENSO which is unprecedented in all our lifetimes, first 3 year La Niña (rare) this stores a lot heat in oceans of mild latitudes as wind evaporation is reduced but then now with abrupt —> El Niño it is now being expelled also into atmosphere, meanwhile the tropics aggressively warm with quick formation of El Niño, typically we see a year or two of neutral ENSO, this allows mid latitudes to cool in time of developing El Niño we have not seen this and this is reason why global temperatures are particularly elevated right now. The good news this is temporary by next La Niña possibly in 2024/2025 things should normalise a tad.

I don’t agree remember the U.K. former all-time highest temperature of 38.5C was set on August 10, 2003. On average with late July, early August brings hottest days of summer.

I had 90mm in my part of central ish London very wet. I had 130mm in 2021 though, with 54mm on one day!

Relevant!

A cool first half but warmer second half. 16C and 80mm thanks.

Seriously dull July in London dullest in 48 years, even if you add a correction as sun recorder changed in 2005 it’s still the dullest July of 21st century so far and there has been some shockers. 48

Real bad in London as well. Mean max of 19.3C, rain 86mm and 129.9 sun hours 1980 was last year with a mean max of <20C in July.

The July has been a washout, okay not everywhere especially further SE, but it’s expected to be third wettest July on record in U.K. Thanks to Dan Harris the combination of poor sunshine and well above average rainfall excluding temperature, 2023 only has company with 1936, 1939 and 1988. Maybe many in here are not appreciating just how untypical the July has been. A glimmer of something warmer in long range, we have been here before but surely after this many weeks the pattern will relax.

It has been a warm year till now, this below average spell is looking quite prolonged. I guess this is overdue but unfortunate for it to occur in height of summer. I wouldn’t feel confident predicting a warm or settled August at this stage.

Plenty eh?

Also..

You shouldn’t be so dismissive, it’s likely parts of country will see their dullest July on record it has also been very unsettled for many. This is extremely poor for height of summer. End of. What do average temperatures mean when you cannot enjoy the outdoors? likely

A growing area of central-southern U.K. is now 1C below 1991-2020 average, not sure near average cuts it. If the nights were cooler the anomaly would be more stark, that is what has been average.

I picked for yesterday July 24th maximum temperatures at Heathrow 2013-2022, and I got an average temperature of 25.8C for this date of course picking a single day is not exactly proper, despite some notably cool weather e.g. in 2015 17.3C high. 32.8C in 2019. The 17.7C at Heathrow is significantly below average.......