Daniel*

It’s important to maintain ventilation CO2 rapidly builds up, this affects the quality of your sleep. I open also for health.

A lot more of EC ens going for cooler continental undercut. 12z > 00z

Can you actually support that? GFS has maxes barely double figures on Sunday in London mostly single figures across UK.. similarly ECM not much higher. also lows forecast Monday AM a widespread air frost… this night is clearly going to be a frosty one, with a cold air mass, very light winds and clear spells. I think we should return to this once it passes.

Not sure what some are failing to understand we’re expecting a much colder than average air mass. It’s more than slight deviation. The likelihood of frost into next week is high it’s only cloud which can prevent this.

A very warm feeling day today in London, I don’t usually overthink things when we get these summer-like days in autumn but after that extraordinary warm September it feels like we are seeing too much of this. Need for balance.

Open your eyes Seb

Cold frosty nights and relatively cold by day also on ECM 12z it would be a huge flip.

Nice to see something cooler than average at last favoured from next weekend.. with some chilly nights, with mist and fog in morning burning back to bright sunshine?

Warmest days now looking Monday + Tuesday I wouldn't rule out 27C it’s impressive for time of year. More abnormal warmth restricted further SE though.

I never said it was impossible to see 20C just that if it were to occur it would occur in an extremely isolated location and would be unrepresentative of surrounding areas. The warmest air from winter is coming from a tropical maritime air mass from Azores. It’s not coming from south off continent. The UK is a very maritime influenced, surrounded by cooler water this will always have a moderating influence. The example of continental Europe is not a good one, and as for 40C, studies have shown this was possible even without global warming while very unlikely… but climate change has made it much more likely. Indeed the prospect was discussed more and more before the summer of 2022. It shouldn’t really have took anyone by surprise, I just thought the large geographic area was the more noteworthy feature. I for example did not think it was possible to see 40C as far north as Lincolnshire.

A 20c max in December and January where? Not realistic for UK winter climatology. The highest December temperature on record at Heathrow is 16.4C on 19/12/2015 and January 15.7C on 01/01/2022. Solar radiation is simply too weak that cannot be overcome, such winter warmth (excluding Feb) can only be seen on lee side of mountain with an extreme foehn effect that is 0.0001%.

Similarly, it’s time to put summer to bed… keep wishing for more anomalous warmth. This is October.

Quite possible this weekend into early next week will feature last warm days of year until spring 2024. No one can argue we have had a good run, time for something more appropriate.

March was an awful month, very unsettled and cloudy. In London lowest spring max since 1986.

The previous record average max was 22.8C from 1949... smashed apart.

September 2023 is hottest month of year in London, quite remarkable it never happened in Heathrow’s 75 year records till now. More here: r

Wrong

11.4C and 57mm thanks. This is difficult GFS going much colder.

Cold kills much more in Northern Europe that’s a fact. The idea the climate is going to transform enough for this to flip is idiotic. from data released in early 2023 “Over the last ten years (note many of these winters mild), the average number of deaths each winter in the UK caused by cold damp homes now stands at 7,409.” More deaths than hottest summer on record in England last year which I think was near 3k. Winter 2010/11 near 30,000 excess deaths. A lot!

Thanks mate, you’re Cheshire Freeze now? You’ll always be Crewe Cold to me let’s hope for a cracking old school winter, unusually the long range guidance is gravitating towards -NAO winter. Unusual blocking patterns this summer too! I’m thinking warm Atlantic SSTs with now widespread they are north and south, could be playing a role.

For Heathrow. July and August was slightly below average, an exceptionally warm June made a huge difference. June Mean Max: 25.3C (+3.7C) Mean Min: 13.5C (+1.5C) Mean T: 19.4C (+2.6C) July Mean Max: 22.9C (-1C) Mean Min: 14C (-0.2C) Mean T: 18.5C (-0.6C) August Mean Max: 23C (-0.4C) Mean Min: 13.8C (-0.3C) Mean T: 18.4C (-0.4C) Summer Mean T: 18.8C (+0.6C) Wrt 1991-2020 average

Happy birthday to me, the years seem to be going too fast now…. a very nice morning and early afternoon. Cloud cover becoming a bit more extensive now. I don’t remember the last rainy birthday to be honest.

Monthly record at London, Heathrow Airport. 33C overtakes 2016’s 32.8C.

Incredible stuff this is for September, not known anything like it in my lifetime. By near mid month the mean temp in London looks to be near 24C totally out this world. Good expectation for weather to turn closer to normal by next Tuesday but hints it could start warming again. A significantly warmer than average September is highly likely.