Daniel*

I don't think think that's quite right. 23.9C is the overall monthly high 1991-2020 at Heathrow, so I would imagine about 23C at start and 25C at end, warmest time of year into early August. And 25.3C which I calculated 2013-2022, is the overall July average max, so in theory on last decade we're probably looking at 26C in late July. This date is quite prone to hot weather.

Just a little below average..... NOT!

The final third of July 2012 the weather transformed was actually a decent spell of weather in London. Much better to this one.

Awful awful day in London worst day of summer. Even amongst all the rain still raining. The sky had such a heavy solemn look to it, totally far removed from late July climatology.

You’re forgetting it’s July, which is the warmest month of year. It’s never really going to be cold. Relatively speaking it was a cold day across many central, southern and eastern areas of England also max occurred in morning, you avoided the abnormally cool conditions in Cheshire but your back yard does not represent the entire country. i

Worst day of the summer… awful. Would have easily passed for October day.

More useful animation signs of Azores high bringing more settled weather from west unusually into August, it looks quite retrogressive here though so obviously we want to avoid that development, plenty of time for adjustments though.

It's not been a notably cool period. In fact our last significantly below average summer was 30 years ago. Even poor 2007-2012 period which perhaps this July is reminding some of, it was not temperatures which were the exceptional thing it was the rainfall some similarity there. For me in London this July has not been terrible not that unsettled, but poor for what we are used to need more sunshine!

Surely the month is favoured to be below average at least on 1991-2020? And probably 1981-2010 which we are yet to accomplish this year at least across U.K.. Looking at some cooler nights next week as well.

10 day precipitation total on ECM 12z, bleak for Lake District… previous runs believe it or not were more extreme. Not much rain in far SE more useable weather here but hardly great for high summer.

The raw value was not 244 hours it was 250.2 hours. The first June since 1996 to record over 250 sun hours. I personally don’t see a need for correction when I look at other stations in SE, why would Heathrow be so much above them?

Even that is looking more unlikely now Saturday looking unstable.. cloud cover could be an issue. It’s a blink and you miss it snap really. The model output is looking overall quite poor in next 10 days so that is first half of July gone.

They said it would be average but it’s coolest start to July since 2012 in London, with a average max of 21.2C to 5th.

And a cool night

Let’s not pretend the last week in London has been poor. Okay sure it’s not raining all time but grey skies really does not inspire much positivity from me. Today seemed unusually gloomy for early July and I’m on 17mm for the day still raining, temps slipped to 15C at Heathrow at 3pm under rain, this is really not one would expect. Much of this week will have been poor. And really after short plume there seems to be more or less an extension of westerly I’m finding it difficult to be encouraged at the moment in a core summer period as well. I think people are justified to feel a little uneasy at the moment even after that June. Remember many are yet to take their holidays.

14.6C the high at Pershore today - very cool indeed.

Somewhat yes but 23.7C is lowest average max in last decade (2015). Nothing cool. 2013: 27C 2014: 25.8C 2015: 23.7C 2016: 24C 2017: 23.8C 2018: 28.3C 2019: 25.5C 2020: 23.8C 2021: 24.2C 2022: 27.2C

16.9C and 45mm thanks, I think this month will either end up much warmer than average or never really get going. I’m sort of going in the middle.

For those interested June 1976 remains the king in London. Noticeable though how 3 of the top 5 warmest have occurred since only 2017, that’s quite alarming or pleasing to some.

I know, there was some late sunshine late temp boost. Pershore tonight looks set to have a relatively cool night. Does look like cloud will move in from west in early hours though, preventing it from getting that cool.

A below average day in part of CET zone at last, Pershore with 18.7C at 2pm unlikely to rise much more with cloud. The night was still quite mild though min 13C. My prediction a finish of 16.9C tied warmest with 1976.

The convective season in central London this year so far, has been nothing short of a disaster. It seems to be a good year for Midlands, again London & SE seeing worst of heat and nothing from it not a drop.

Minority solution clearly.

It’s interesting how in winter GFS is constantly dismissed, but in summer it suddenly becomes model of choice. As far as I know verification scores do not change. From what I see the weather is very likely to decline next week, the first bit of Atlantic influence since first half of May? The SE will hold better weather for longest might not be apparent till near weekend a change does appear to be coming.

There’s clear ensemble support for temps to cool into July the trend remains unchanged from previous days.