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Daniel*

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Everything posted by Daniel*

  1. Daniel*
    Pretty clear OP was somewhat of an outlier with ridging into Europe at day 10. Appears trop vortex is going to migrate eastwards to Scandinavia which is in line with GFS. EPS
  2. Daniel*
    Perhaps for more northern areas but the euro heights are clearly a problem with a strong jet stream, you want the low heights to dig into Europe there’s a clear barrier. High pressure on near continent is one of biggest red flags there is cold will always struggle to advance south.
  3. Daniel*
    Very dismal ECM 12z, it doesn’t get much more +NAO. Trop vortex looks very strong I suspect it’s being over-egged.
  4. Daniel*
    Some fairly strong similarities there with day 10 ECM 12z and late Jan 2003 this was also an El Niño winter, the strong Azores high is not typical of El Niño winter though, but perhaps we could see a similar evolution more generally cold and wintry in nearby continent.
  5. Daniel*
    Can’t fault the consistency from GFS… newest on the left. Monster Atlantic ridge.
  6. Daniel*
    Seems pretty clear to me something at fundamental level needs to change. EPS strongly supporting a spell of +NAO. I think we are pinning on our hopes models underestimating this MJO cycle and the polar vortex… because I’m seeing a lot of “purples” upstream it’s as if we have a strong vortex meanwhile this is increasingly further into December not the reality.
  7. Daniel*
    That’s a very powerful North Atlantic block on GFS 18z making better inroads poleward.
  8. Daniel*
    Too much emotional commentary in here, nothing has really changed, the signal remains for retrogression of ridge beyond day 10. Colder N flows are favoured, this is long range so to expect the NWP to have figured out MJO et al is baffling.
  9. Daniel*
    The period of interest is still out ECM op range, so I wouldn’t feel concerned right now. I also have a sneaky suspicion it’s not yet quite capturing MJO passage that well we have been here before with ECMWF.
  10. Daniel*
    Normality is restoring midweek next week, weeks of mild weather it’s not. the far north though looks to get milder with southwesterly flow over the top of the high. Inverness
  11. Daniel*
    Hi John for a netwx legend of course! Hope that’s better.
  12. Daniel*
    Yes, here as animation nice bit of retrogression. Seems to align with EC46.
  13. Daniel*
    It’s definitely true the medium range has trended milder, it’s probably correct we will not see a wintry pattern until second half of December. 15-day EPS precip yesterday Today It’s not as rainy looking as 24 hours ago…. Good to see!
  14. Daniel*
    Thanks John forgot to reply. Seems likes it’s been a good start with a good base already? Cairngorm (4 hours ago)
  15. Daniel*
    Snow flurries here in Docklands near central London fantastic to see so early
  16. Daniel*
    I’ve never seen such anomalous cold modelled in vast expanse of continental Russia. The signal from EPS is overwhelming if that spills into Europe it really could be historic I do not say that lightly.
  17. Daniel*
    change 3.9c nd 75mm thanks
  18. Daniel*
    4.3c and 80mm thanks
  19. Daniel*
    I have produced my winter forecast for winter 2023/24. I am quite bold but I think I justify it well enough. Winter 2023/24: A Winter to Remember? WWW.THESNOWDREAMER.BLOG Winter Forecast Headlines: Overall, over the course of the meteorological winter encompassing the months of December, January and February. Temperatures are favoured to be colder than normal to...
  20. Daniel*
    EPS less mild in FI if anything compared to 00z big spread though. More questions than answers at the moment. Likely to turn less cold into next week though.
  21. Daniel*
    The cold “block” to northeast looks very entrenched on ECM 12z, while it might not influence our weather in nearer term it is interesting to see what will come of it, turning less cold probably for NW Europe but will the pattern sustain? I’m not sure.
  22. Daniel*
    The cold spell lives on in GFS 12z WAA pumping north with significant cold to our northeast. That’s more what we want.
  23. Daniel*
    Interesting how we all interpret things differently I see a lot of promise on GFS 18z it remains cold and heights reemerging to north with a slidey look to it.
  24. Daniel*
    Cold seems to be upgrading and prolonging although this is rather unsurprising with experience of these patterns in low solar. Clearly if it was January we would be seeing a more substantial cold spell, nonetheless wintry hazards will be possible quite widely. Not a bad start to winter London, Heathrow Birmingham
  25. Daniel*
    Short term upgrades on GFS more meaningful blocking into Greenland and colder T850s, it appears on Friday any precip will fall as snow.
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