Daniel*

First up ICON nice and clean with uppers more supportive of wintry precip. Set to see coldest start to meteorological winter since 2010.

Much better from GFS this morning seems -NAO Greenland high is having a bit of a resurgence in modelling and it does look more east than west based which favours NW Europe, Greenland blocking also helps with southern push of Euro cold trough. Anyone else seeing some similarities with December 2022?

The trend is a coldies friend… follow the trend. 19th 00z EPS 21st 00z 22nd 12z EPS

It’s based on model data no human input or sensationalism. And you are misunderstanding it incorporates windchill.

This is quite a significant breakthrough in NWP world an AI model called GraphCast developed by Google is best performing at day 5 while ECMWF and GFS performance bombed this was not shared with this model. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99428-model-output-discussion-mid-autumn/?do=findComment&comment=4955750

This is quite a significant breakthrough in NWP world an AI model called GraphCast developed by Google is best performing at day 5 while ECMWF and GFS performance bombed this was not shared with this model.

It’s amusing who remembers back in day we all spoke of ECM amplification bias at day 10? All those rogue Scandi highs which never materialised. Did that evaporate suddenly…

Reloading pattern seems favoured in modelling with renewed amplification in North Atlantic sector. Who knows perhaps take 2 will be more successful. I wouldn’t say this is your typical output to end November.

Let’s remind ourselves what ECM was showing nearly 48 hours ago a flat mild westerly typical +NAO pattern. The vast majority of EPS did not have much interest either. So it strikes me this model underestimated MJO forcing meanwhile GFS more effectively expressed it. It’s fair to say this has not been the models finest hour. Verifications stats are posted but in reality there is not an actual significance difference between them, perhaps some models excel better in North Atlantic region. None is perfect. now for 24th

ECM definitely shifted to GFS this morning finding more amplification upstream to Greenland. Poor show from best performing model at such short timeframe. Compare 120hrs with 12z

The first half was very good it really fell apart in second half. July was worst month that summer in central London, in fact July 2021 is my wettest month on record.

I haven’t felt cold once this autumn.

Little interest from EPS keeps the Arctic intrusion well east. Flat and uninspiring profile into Europe.

That's not the latest. Not that warm now a bit of a tripole anomaly has developed.

One GFS run against an entire ensemble of 50 from best performing model. Please, you should know better by now.

Been a while since I’ve seen a quite prolonged spell signalled for cooler than average weather in time extending across most of Europe. Scandinavia has been cold for a number of weeks now and no sign of this breaking.

Happy birthday @stainesbloke halfway to 100 I've been staying in Winchelsea, East Sussex since Friday I've never seen such flooding here. Many Caravans are encircled in water and the water is not going anywhere. A wet winter would be disastrous.

October 1987 was the wettest month on record in London, Heathrow. 174.8mm!

Seeing chillier weather 6.4C and 80mm thanks perhaps first below average month on 1961-1990.

63mm at Dungeness

EPS going in a chilly direction further into November… winter coming early?

Yes I’m in Winchelsea what a wet night 50mm+ since midnight. Bounced it down. Serious flooding issues if this continues, Hastings is flooding. @Tamara thought you might be interested.

Relevant

It was cold this morning I'd go as far to say very cold for mid October with an overnight low of 1.5C been keeping records since 2020 and previous coolest night in 2022 was 4.2C so quite a bit colder.

Hi Seb, you were saying? England has also seen its lowest October temperature in 20 years (2003). The CET for yesterday's date was the lowest in 30 years (1993). So this snap has been a bit more than little below average.