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Daniel*

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Everything posted by Daniel*

  1. Daniel*
    I do think there are a growing number in here who post for a reaction, ultimately not much has changed in last 24 hours at all. Much of next week will be cold Tuesday/Wednesday perhaps better snow opportunities further south from Thursday-Friday more Midlands north. The weekend probably less cold further south but it could still remain wintry further north with ongoing risk of snow.
  2. Daniel*
    Looking at EPS I get suspicion the cold might not ever really vacate the far north, and if it does turn less cold in far south it might only be temporary. March could be a very good month indeed for Scottish skiers. There’s no sign at the moment of an emphatic move to spring warmth. A colder than average March looks extremely likely, a question of to what extent?
  3. Daniel*
    The Atlantic influence into southern UK parts especially is good most in here want snow and a lot of it, the December cold spell was on paper a true cold spell but most have already forgotten about it as it was largely dry. Many people would be satisfied with a snow day. We have to remember it is March and we need to adjust our expectations. Next week is looking more hopeful than the entirety of the winter gone. We must be vigilant!
  4. Daniel*
    I noticed EPS was less inclined in bringing return of +NAO, maybe evidence the colder weather could be more prolonged than currently hinted. Still some work to do!
  5. Daniel*
    UKMO t168 looks wintry and very cold!
  6. Daniel*
    Think it’s going to be cold not as cold as 2013 though, 3.9C and 70mm thanks. Thinking maybe most disruptive winter weather arrives in this early spring month.
  7. Daniel*
    Yeah ICON slight upgrade the ridge strengthens again and further up to Greenland and pressure slightly lower to south. 120hr 18z v 123hr 12z
  8. Daniel*
    We could be on the cusp of a significant victory to UKMO, it has been a while since we have been able to say that. GFS is now looking very isolated.
  9. Daniel*
    I remember Dr Simon Lee tweeting about it recently, seems actually opinions vary a little 20 or 30 consecutive days it’s not completely settled.
  10. Daniel*
    According to literature for there to be a distinct new major SSW at least 30 days need to pass with zonal wind in westerly this will not be met, therefore the SSW seen in mid February and further easterly reversals are all part of the same SSW event.
  11. Daniel*
    No, the 510 dam is rare not even December 2010 achieved that. In last 30 years or so there has probably been two occasions and that’s 1991 beast and 2018 beast. How can we forget the latter unbelievably the 5 year anniversary is very soon, it was likely the latest on record too. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98326-model-output-discussion-into-february/?do=findComment&comment=4812346
  12. Daniel*
    No, the 510 dam is rare not even December 2010 achieved that. In last 30 years or so there has probably been two occasions and that’s 1991 beast and 2018 beast. How can we forget the latter unbelievably the 5 year anniversary is very soon, it was likely the latest on record too.
  13. Daniel*
    Battleground U.K. I think the weather soon might become much more interesting.
  14. Daniel*
    Hope I’m not tempting fate but this is looking good… cut off Greenland high, lows in Atlantic are heading southeastwards supporting block rather than west to east movement in 00z right.
  15. Daniel*
    UKMO T168 uppers. Not very springlike!
  16. Daniel*
    We could be looking at a big victory to the UKMO here.. See newest from GFS on left for 19:00 Saturday back to original retrogression. A good ECM and this place could be rocking.
  17. Daniel*
    I’d say at the moment FI is day 5-7 do not even bother looking any further than that, it is entirely fruitless exercise trying to pull anything from ensembles in FI. The fact this thread is busy at end of February is unusual, testament to what could be seen. It’s happened before and it will happen again not saying for sure it will happen this year but the risk is more elevated than usual.
  18. Daniel*
    All this talking about day 10 charts never verifying… well forecasts from ECM and GFS were pretty spot on with Atlantic ridging and cooler northerly winds. day 10 forecast for 24/02 actual
  19. Daniel*
    Looks pretty below average really while not massively ECM also showing some frostier night. Think you forget places in midlands/south average double figure maxes by end of the month. A max temperature of 7C is 3C below average, the equivalent of a 4C max in January.
  20. Daniel*
    Hi all, I went back to my old school profile pic, do you remember? I’m a feline again. Seems pretty clear going forward colder weather is favoured, temps looking more akin to January. The likelihood is it will be a delayed spring.
  21. Daniel*
    We had 5mm here overnight by far most significant rain in sometime, before this the month total was only 0.7mm it has been ridiculously dry generally it looks to remain dry. Seeing potential for some wintry showers in our region especially at night.
  22. Daniel*
    It did look quite hasty. The high backs northwest can see EPS out to T294. The extended will be cold again. 36 hours later ish…
  23. Daniel*
    A spell of -NAO is assured in first half of March but now also evidence of -AO which is also evidence the SSW has coupled to trop.
  24. Daniel*
    The thing is into March the weather east is not particularly relevant we’re looking towards Arctic. also max/mins for Moscow on ECM 12z if interested
  25. Daniel*
    At the moment it looks like it is going to come together in March the extended EPS seems to improve run by run. Greenland blocking looking likely, I suppose the only real danger is west based.
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