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Everything posted by Daniel*
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Daniel* replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
People follow output too black and white the situation is fluid and finely poised looking at EPS there does seem to be appetite for NAO to go more negative mid month onwards and so colder weather has potential to lock in. Quite possible we could be looking at a cold February the coldest since 2018, albeit with a very mild beginning the possibility is there and I don’t think tiny. El Niño winters are more backloaded on average. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Daniel* replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The trend is our friend at the moment number of colder runs increasing. 12z eps yesterday and today for Birmingham. -
February 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests
Daniel* replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
This is really tough the month will begin exceptionally mild but I can see some cold weather perhaps most persistent of winter. I’ll go with 3.9C and 65mm thanks. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Daniel* replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think some need to use some common sense, if there is significant uncertainty for the period around 8th this will have a knock on effect further on. While models might be generally showing the same thing after the period of high uncertainty it might be read totally wrong. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Daniel* replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
There seems to be more enthusiasm for progression into phase 8 mid month - timing wise this feels like 2018. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Daniel* replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Us hardcore snow enthusiasts will take it any time of the year!….
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Daniel* replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Day 10 mean 00z and latest 12z, low heights are pushing further south. Notice again Scandinavia becoming very cold. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Daniel* replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
No surprise to see det runs GFS & ECM playing with a wedge.. MJO has moved into phase 7 at decent amplitude this would manifest into second week of Feb with heights expected to fall to our south. February has been delivering more than January in recent years 2018, 2021 and 2024??? -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Daniel* replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Daniel* replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Was shown on ECM 12z yesterday but dropped overnight. Clearly NWP are toying with something they don’t yet have a good grip on. Likely MJO related I’d say. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Daniel* replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Daniel* replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I’m just reading the output how you perceive it is another matter. These are the very basics as far as I’m concerned. Let me post this again. There’s an already quite a robust signal for a fall of pressure in Iberian peninsula, wetter weather from ~10th Feb there is no wishful thinking about that. Let these charts speak for themselves. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Daniel* replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Using 10th Feb to illustrate the previous three EPS means oldest to newest. Becoming increasingly clear it will become more cyclonic in Europe. MSLP in Madrid …. 1035mb to ~1015mb good signal for wetter weather down there… -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Daniel* replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Wrong, it’s taken from EPS mean and has been quite consistent of late of scrubbing euro heights. -
January 2024 CET and E.W.P. forecast contests
Daniel* replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Daniel* replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Daniel* replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This is unfair… cold weather was identified in January weeks in advance the timing of onset was also correct how it unravelled is another discussion the MJO lost amplitude this was not foreseen by models at beginning, but to say the teleconnections have been useless is totally wrong it helps give a broad picture not a back yard perspective. It doesn’t tell you if you’re going to see a big dumping of snow. I’d rather say you go by gut than anything else, it’s what experience taught you? Well weather forecasting does not work like that that’s not forecasting. Scientific explanations have been outlined you’re the one purposely ignoring them as junk. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Daniel* replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
What will be said though February will be ultimate test of seasonal models and the winter really as a whole. It was this month the seasonal models went to town with potential for prolonged cold spell and more durable northern blocking. Not other months where cyclonic Atlantic dominated weather was more favoured and that has verified in most part. Hopefully late winter can restore some faith in NWP which has taken a knock. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Daniel* replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You’re making a serious mistake just focusing on UK. Look at bigger picture ECM 12z is best run in 2 weeks? Trop vortex vacates from Greenland, euro heights eroding to south, heights opening up in North Atlantic possibly MJO related. It shows it doesn’t require spectacular blocking to drastically changes our fortunes. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Daniel* replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Definitely feels model fatigue has crept in ECM not without interest… wintry in far north, pressure needs to drop to south. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Daniel* replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Daniel* replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The met added this today, evidently this is rather unclear in guidance at present but they must be seeing something. Drivers look more supportive of colder weather patterns in next few weeks in context of dying +IOD.. robust eQBO, El Niño starting to moderate and more climatological support for back loaded cold. Only time will tell but I doubt models have captured this period very well especially with evolving MJO in a slow orbit in phase 7, I do think it’s unlikely we see something significant in first 10 days of February but I do think the month as a whole is still quite open. “There is a chance colder conditions could then become established more widely during the first full week of February, with increased chance of wintry weather, especially northern and central UK” -
Late January-early February 1954 freeze
Daniel* replied to Weather-history's topic in Historic Weather
Wrong year