[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

Don't often post these but I shall accept this from the 18Z.

http://cdn.nwstatic....ctypeuktopo.png

I just watched News 24 and according to the forecaster he mentioned a similar pattern but the graphics had it a fair bit

further south with the northern extent from Suffolk NW across to Birmingham, he did mentioned there could be isolated snow

flurries further north almost anywhere, but some places could get none. Going by his graphics the heaviest snow seemed to be from Kent

north west through London and up towards Oxford. But more like rain for Dorset, and somerset and Wiltshire.

[Winter Model Output Discussion 01/02/2013 12z onwards]

Very cold over Europe

Light winds

Well well well , are we in the brink of another significant cold spell?

I think Glacial Point (GP) forecast another very cold spell to occur at short notice around the end of the first

week of February, so not long to go. Changes can happen suddenly. I have read his post over a long time. So have

faith everyone \

X

[London & South East Regional Discussion 21st January 2013, 12z onwards]

About another 4cm here, filling in the gaps left by a thaw today, looks like the heaviest has passed over here

The snow band is running north west. Look to your South east, not south, thats whats heading towards you.

Really large snowflakes here now in Frimley

[London & South East Regional Discussion 21st January 2013, 12z onwards]

I'd ignore that tbh - think it hasn't been updated since 3PM - the five-day forecast which was updated at 5PM is showing something different.

it seems to be running north west along itself I think parts of Surrey and Hampshire could see unexpectedly high totals tonight !!

[London & South East Regional Discussion 21st January 2013, 12z onwards]

Well the Met office forecast on the Beeb this afternoon didnt get the snowfall area correct on its graphics.. Snowing like crazy here in Frimley. Had

an inch and a half nearly 4 cm fall now in a couple. At this rate we could see up to 8 cm or even more. All thawed areas now all white again. Amazing

real white out here now !

[London & South East Regional Discussion 21st January 2013, 12z onwards]

http://www.weatheron...S=0&WMO==

Back to the 0 PPN for most of our region for the next 48 hours

S

Cloud- & perhaps a bit of low level moisture in the air-

Good ol cloud deck hasnt shifted at all...

Also wind direction- E or SE isnt ideal- need a Northerly or NWesterly-

+++ you live on the coast!!!

S

Thanks Steve.. Im staying with my mum in Frimley for a couple of weeks. Its near Camberley in Surrey. Do you think we will get some snow tomorrow night as the fax

charts show a front lying across southern counties tomorrow evening ?

[London & South East Regional Discussion 21st January 2013, 12z onwards]

remember folks the steepest temp drop of the day is 5 until around 10.

I think, assuming skies keep clear we will be at minus 4 by 10pm and much much lower by dawn.

Tonights the night for a minus 10.

S

Hi Steve,

I've noticed a number of posts from you promising temps between -10 and -20oC for the south, covering the last week. The lowest we have had since last Friday is -1.8oC.

Why do you think there is such a big discrepancy. Have you been surprised how the temps havent fallen hardly at all ( about a 2oC variance) most days. I have to say I would

have expected lower temps over snow fields ? Very strange. Would appreciate your take on it ? Did it surprise you ?

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/1/13 onwards.]

ERM ??

920 MB LOW !! Don't think I have ever seen one of them on a GFS chart

Would that bring snow all the way across the atlantic because its soooo cold ?

[London and South East Regional Discussion - 20th January 2013 - 06z onwards]

And may be over earlier than we thought?? Clear spots coming up to the French coast ??

This is a France & UK rainfall loop, it will give a good idea of what is to come

http://meteox.co.uk/images.aspx?jaar=-3&voor=&soort=loop1uur&c=&n=&tijdid=20131201055

[London & South East Regional Discussion 18th January 2013, 12z onwards]

is the raintoday site not working for anyone else or is it just me?

Its slow, dont play with settings. let it settle for about a minute..

[London & South East Regional Discussion 18th January 2013, 12z onwards]

On the VERY latest www.raintoday.co.uk, you can see a trough starting to form diagonally across the county of Surrey, running along itself !!

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 16/1/13 onwards.]

WIll that Low off the SW cut under the shallow high over Northern England next Thursday pushing it away north bringing in another easterly ?

[London & South East Regional Discussion 18th January 2013, 12z onwards]

Kent.. And I think pretty much all... Amen!

Okay then... The low will not move that far south... In fact I think it might move out to the Atlantic TBH or sit there..

If you look at www.raintoday.co.uk you can see a small rotation forming between Guildford and Basingstoke. Southerly wind over Guildford and a NW Drift over Basingstoke. These small features often pep up the snow fall and could well drag the snow over Sussex in land over Surrey and he stuff over France North into

Kent !

[London & South East Regional Discussion 18th January 2013, 12z onwards]

Snowing like mad again near the hogs back in Surrey. A good 14 - 16cm of lying snow now. What a bonus started early at 8.00Am and has been snowing

constantly for 10 hours, with a small break around teatime for about 30 mins !! this snowy spell was better than forecast. Almost worthy of a red warning

[South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 18th January 2013, 06z Onwards]

Does anyone know if the reports of rain near filton are correct ( Bristol )

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 16/1/13 onwards.]

Evening all,

Looking at the front coming in for tomorrow, it doesnt look that impressive Id be surprised it that dropped

30 cm in one place ( 3 cm of rain / over an inch of rain equivalent ) ? Is this going to develop alot overnight ?

[London & South East Regional Discussion 17th January 2013, 12z onwards]

@ the ECM 144 trying to secure the cold out to day 10 on its model-

almost back to square one-

http://www.meteociel...H1-144.GIF?17-0

Stationary Bitter air over England with snowcover = Sub -10 nights

S

Hello Steve.

I always read your posts. I noticed you promised -20oC over snow fields yesterday.

Does that depend on snow cover and will that be in the Berkshire region ?

Lottie

[London & South East Regional Discussion 17th January 2013, 12z onwards]

This is amazing. Im staying with my mum up in Frimley off the M3 and its snowing !!! Yes I didnt expect to see

snow this evening in the south. Have many of you got snow too in the south east ?

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 16/1/13 onwards.]

That doesnt show a massive upgrade with a lot of snow in the SE. Bit misleading for some.

Its does indicate a decent angle of attack of the approaching low however.

oh sorry.. I was looking at the low over E Sussex.

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 16/1/13 onwards.]

GFS 18z a much better run for keeping the cold locked in, it shoots off to the south quickly. However the snow may not reach as far east ?

Also latest fax for Sunday is a huge upgrade for southern england, with a lot of snow in the south east

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 16/1/13 onwards.]

Still a lot of uncertainty over the snow on Friday. Latest News 24 forecast has 8oC just south of Bristol and the worst of the snow

in a line from Brighton up to Liverpool. Why are the temps so high when the 528 dam line is not far to the east over the eastern half of

England

[Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/1/13 onwards.]

this evening..

So if I got that right, the latest fax chart shows the front that piles in from the west on Friday, stalls somewhere over the southeast and east, and then backtracks west

again bringing more snow back across the country from the east this time ?

[Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/1/13 onwards.]

BBC will likely still be working off previously supplied data that very had it for as a snow to rain event (for many in the West and South at least) as the front bulldozed it's way through. Things have evolved a bit since then and (I would guess) would filter to the BBC etc as time goes on.

After the near time-frame faxes earlier on, tonight's fax updates are going to be fascinating!

S4 you are not far along the coast from me. Where do you think the front will stall, and will the southerlies from France keep us cold enough ?

[Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/1/13 onwards.]

Youve read the charts right, just to show you I think this is where you might have been wrong; the southerly winds are coming over a fairly cold UK, and bearing in mind the winds are coming from France (which is much colder than us as its connected to Europe and not fully surrounded by the sea) the air isnt as warm as one would think, also the air is coming from the continent this means the air is drier and therefore dew points are lower, low dp (below 0C)means there is a high chance for snow if the uppers are below -4C (which in this case they may very well be).

For example this the chart for Sunday from the GFS, it shows a low to the west bringing in a southerly wind, but because cold has been with us more than a week by then, the uppers stay cold.

So I would think past Saturday, snow is still a possibility away from the far S/SW.

Hi Panyotis.

I feel much more at ease now. That makes a lot of sense. Its just the Met office forecast says milder on sunday with rain, so i figure they are not as up to date

with the latest charts as you guys.. Fantastic..Ive never built a snow man, i am off work on Sunday, so just have to sit back and wait to let it snow...

Whooppeee ...

[Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/1/13 onwards.]

Hi Lottie

The FAX chart you show is last night's 120 chart and will be updated again later this evening. I suspect it will show a better picture for snow, although the chart you posted was still very good.

I'm not a big expert but as I understand it, the 528 DAM line is not so important in set ups like this, where frontal snow is forecast to meet cold uppers.

The ECM tonight is a very snowy chart and I don't think marginality would be an issue there.

I'm sure someone far more knowledgeable than me will correct me if I'm wrong, but it all looks good to me!

Exciting times to be model watching!

Thanks for your reply .. I thought 528 dam air meant the air was cold up there, and if it was higher

than 528 dam, then it wasnt so cold higher up ?

sorry for the question.