[Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/1/13 onwards.]

Can anyone confirm if this fax means it will be rain over the UK on Sunday away from North East Scotland ? The Damn 528 line is off the east coast and strong southerlies will see temps at the surface increasing. In fact ive just checked the met o outlook 3-5 dayer and it says snow on friday then milder weather.

Is that it then ? 1 day of snow, then a thaw and rain.

Now i know the ECM 12z is showing a colder prospect again on tuesday but will we have lost the cold pool over us by then.

making any precipitation marginal south of he m4 ?

I've read some posters SMurr i think talking of -20oC and snow fields - is that based on the fact the fax charts are wrong. Having read

from the professionals here - Eye in the sky - that they are one of the most accurate/reliable.

Have I got this right as im still learning, or are we in for a weekend of snow ?

Any help appreciated thanks.

Lottie.

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 13/1/13 onwards.]

Really bonkers charts, look at the uppers flooding across the Atlantic!

Those are hpa heights 500hpa

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 13/1/13 onwards.]

Those are 500hpa heights, not temperatures.

Most make this mistake when first hitting the model output threads so it's normal....

Thanks whats hpa heights ? 500 meters high or higher up ?

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 13/1/13 onwards.]

It is not a joke no, for the undercut we need the jet to head as far south as possible the GFS although going at a snails pace in the right direction, has shown a consistent picture in the last 4-5 runs, especially its ENS which are very bullish on bring the Atlantic back through for a short period of Zonality. Just my opinion like but at this stage I feel the jet isn't angled favourably and the Atlantic looks very strong, if I was a betting man I'd say major snow event for certain areas followed by a thaw for 2-3 days maybe then with a reload when the Jet finally heads south enough.

Surely with all those blues the air will be bitter cold ??

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 13/1/13 onwards.]

Ive noticed one thing. On the runs each day the Azores High is slowly edging away a little bit westwards each run, which seems to

allow the Atlantic lows to slip ESE around the eastern edge of the Azores High Pressure !

[South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 14/01/13, 12z onwards]

Ian F can only present on what information the models give/show him, and he also mentioned a degree of uncertainty. Also as many people on the NW forums, snow is difficult to predict, no one can be 100% correct all of the time..... I'm looking forward to see how the models develop over the next few days... Should be interesting to say the least

I understand, it must be a very tough job. Would love to see snow here, its so rare. When someone forecasts i get very excited . Do you think

i am in with a realistic chance of a good snowfall ?

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 13/1/13 onwards.]

This is very interesting about Sudden Stratospheric warming !

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/20998895

it actually shows where the current Scandinavia high pressure is

. If this carrys on do any of the experts here believe we will continue

to see the High pressure stay in place ?

its in the same place as this high

Also does the low pressures moving south east track that route because of this high on the chart ?

[South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 14/01/13, 12z onwards]

But Ian F also forecast a chance of snow for the weekend last week and said "It could be quite bothersome". But we didn't get any snow!!

It really is pointless commenting on possible snow chances for Friday, when its only MONDAY today!!!

Im glad someone posted this. He said last week that saturday night would see some snow to the north of here up in Somerset. And possible Sunday.

He then mentioned bothersome snow for today. And we've had none. Its been rain showers this evening, so i feel a bit let down. Tonight he mentions more

troublesome snow on Friday. Are we going to see any snow between now and fridays snow storm ?

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 13/1/13 onwards.]

Does anyone think the deep low over northern Scandinavia is helping keep the high pressure further south west

and in turn keeps the low pressure to our south west as well. Hope for South West England then

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 13/1/13 onwards.]

Hi everyone, really looking forward to this weeks promise of winter. Its 6oC here today, so I figure the cold and snow will arrive down here on wednesday perhaps.

Regarding the ecm chart model although the winds are from the south ? Would it still bring snow to the south because the air

is cutting under it from the east ?

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 13/1/13 onwards.]

Just another question. Why is it called a Fax chart ? Does FAX stand for something ?

Is this a this weeks fax chart = Seems like there is a high pressure moving towards us on Thursday.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/data/CoreProductCache/SurfacePressureChart/Item/ProductId/4419010

[Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)]

Hello, first time poster here, so im sorry if I ask any questions. I love weather and have been trying to follow this thread for most of the winter. Now it seems that the BBC have forecast

snow for the UK for all of this week. But when I look at some of the discussion and charts here some show southerly winds for later in the week. Does

matter if the winds come from the south if the air is cold it will still fall as snow ? We rarely get snow here, and Ian Fergusson on the BBC mentioned disruptive snow tomorrow and tuesday

I think on a forecast I saw yesterday or maybe the day before. It seems to be coming from the north. Will it become snow because of the easterly wind coming in ahead of it ?

And is this an unusual sequence of events for us to see snow here, as its been a few years since we had a covering. Thanks for the answers.

Carla