[South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion 23rd July 2013 onwards]

Well it will either be imported storms along the frontal band, or a band of light rain and drizzle.

I'm going for raging in the drizzle over singing in the rain 

In positive news, the 30C mark was broken at Heathrow again today. Which was well forecast, well except the bbc

Aww thanks for replying. I cant seem to see the cold front on the rainfall radar at the moment, or even the clouds. Is it a developing

feature do you think ?

[South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion 23rd July 2013 onwards]

I hope so too, MT...I just find it less traumatic if I 'prepare for the worst and hope for the best... 

Thanks lets hope.. huh  xx

[South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion 23rd July 2013 onwards]

Based on recent experience, you might be better assuming a big zilch, but keeping an ear open, just in case? 

Aww.. :(  I hope you are kidding.  The fax chart shows a cold front moving over London around dawn, do you not think

this will be the main band of thundery rain ? I do hope so..

[South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion 23rd July 2013 onwards]

Hi can anyone kind enough offer me a few words of  hope.  I stayed at mums last night in Fleet, Hants. I stayed up pretty much all night.

And watched the full moon for most of the night . Saw a couple of very distant flickers of lightning to the east, but no storms at all or rain.

So far its been a non event for me. I know last nights home grown storms were great for many, and a bonus before the main event.

Can any kind soul offer some advice for me as to when the main thunderstorms and thundery rain as per the MO forecast for the south,

should get going ? Will it be this evening or overnight. ? Its 28oC here at moment and after a sunny morning its a uniform overcast sky

very humid but no signs of any storms...yet.  Any insight as to timings later would be gratefully appreciated. Just dont want to risk missing

out on the big one by falling asleep...

 

Thanks

 

X

[Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 23rd July 2013 onwards]

Can anyone tell me more specifically what time we are expecting this evening and overnights storms to arrive in central southern England.

The MO forecast was for increasing thunderstorms and thundery rain over night. I stayed over at my mums near Fleet in Hants, and have yet 

see any of the home grown storms, so I'm hoping this evening and overnight will make up for that .  Any help would be appreciated.

 

xx

[Model Output Discussion 00z 19/07/13]

Today's thundery trough seems to be clearing the SE and E and is moving into Scotland the latest fax charts had the front moving through this evening - is the general consensus that the from is ahead of schedule ? Whilst still hot and humid on the south it has a fresher feel to yesterday and temps are 5 to 6 degrees down on yesterday although still hot. Will the low to the Sw throw up another plume this eve ?

[South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion 22nd July 2013 onwards]

Very disappointing night stayed up most of the night a few flashes around 3.30 almost no rain. Was no where near as good as forecast. Was at least hoping for some rain as ground hard baked.

Is the main event supposed to be this eve when the front comes through ? Hopefully better luck this eve.

[South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion 22nd July 2013 onwards]

Tonights overnight MCS look like heading up to East Sussex, Kent and maybe Suffolk. London should just escape these as they move

north eastwards.. Unless anything develops later over NW France

[Model Output Discussion 00z 19/07/13]

Hi,

 

Looking to the south there are clusters of storms over France. None of charts are showing a low pressure per say over 

France, or are they part of a developing LOW, and will this Low track north or north east, as our the charts seem

to show the weather moving up from between SSW and SW. Sorry for any confusion. Just trying to use the rainfall and

pressure charts to anticipate tonights storms.

 

Thanks

[Model Output Discussion 00z 19/07/13]

There seems to be a veil of cirrostratus over parts or southern England. How's does this affect the cape values for today. Where can I find the cape values modelled for today and tomorrow ?

[Model Output Discussion 00z 19/07/13]

come on rob, that has to be the most OTT post since netweather started

Glad the storms cleared. With the 564 damn line here we should see 90oF under these clear skies

[Model Output Discussion 00z 19/07/13]

who will rid us of this troublesome stratus?its cold, dull and breezy again here

Already had thunderstorm pass over this morning with some very large spots of rain. Seems to be linked to a shallow trough moving NE and connected to a bigger storm moving along the northern coast of France.

[Model Output Discussion 00z 19/07/13]

Another plume on Friday ??  

 

 

Those two lows could spiral around one another and fill in situ eventually keeping a warm or even hot SSW flow over us ?

[Model Output Discussion 00z 19/07/13]

ECM 12z  at T+72 seems to have the low pressure further west and north a bit than the 00z, with a continental thundery low 

moving north close to Kent. Could see some continental imports in Kent and East Anglia on Weds afternoon 

[Model Output Discussion 00z 19/07/13]

if you're going to quote me, at least be accurate. I never used the word major, i stated a breakdown was rather likely, as gfs was showing low pressure consistently near us just after the reliable time frame last week. To be honest, nothing really has changed. A breakdown by midweek, with cooler freaher weather sweeping in to all parts thereafter. Sure, the SE may hold onto some warmth, but the days of 30C wont be repeated by the weekend! Gfs FI then shows the Azores high being flattened for the remainder of its run!I remember many members questioning this flow to cooler fresher weather, and by midweek, this heatwave that has left many exhausted and feeling unwell will be gone. Look forward to fresher weather

Hi are we looking at an active cold front sweepingEast pushing all the warm and hot air away or couldIt be a slow moving front that takes a whole to move north eastWith warmth hanging on in the east and south ?

[Model Output Discussion 00z 19/07/13]

The met office have now issued early warnings for Thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday most of north west England and north east England are in the clear at this stage along with all of Scotland and Northern Ireland all other parts of England and wales are under a yellow warning- http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&fcTime=1374274800

 

 

Will there be any thunderstorms in the south east if this low cloud continues to drift in over us. As its keeping the temps down almost 10oC compared to recent days. WIll the storms still form above the low cloud, or will we miss out ?

[Model Output Discussion 00z 19/07/13]

A clear shift today in the models.

 

At first it appeared like a classic breakdown of storms followed quickly by fresher W,lys. The output today suggests the low pressure makes less eastward progress so we remain under a warm, humid, unstable S,ly flow. At this stage the fresher W,lys might not arrive until early next week and this is subject to change.

 

What is certain is a thundery breakdown is looking very likely and the long hot, dry, sunny days will vanish. However keep an eye on the models extending the warmth and storm risk though.

 

One thing is certain though. During next week we have plenty of exciting weather coming our way and at times, especially at night, it will feel as though the UK is in a tropical rainforest!

I was beginning to wonder if the long hot sunny days have gone already as London is a very overcast and cooler day today at 21oC.. i.e Has the breakdown commenced already from the north east..

 

The other question I have for the experts is when the cold front crosses the UK from the west on Wednesday will this be where the thunderstorms are and will they

increase as thundery showers just behind the cold front ?

[South East/East Anglia Regional Discussion 10/02/13 19z ----->]

Pouring down with heavy rain near Frimley. Temp now -0.2oC :o Cant even see any sleetiness in the rain. Must be due to the southerly feed ?

[South East/East Anglia Regional Discussion 10/02/13 19z ----->]

Def. more snow than sleet here now. That 0c dew point line sliding west towards us here in S.E.London and areas to our N.W.

\

Is that -292 in the Alps !!!?????

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

I've had a day of rain rain and rain...now snow....but not snow that's going to stick around for any length of time.

Was the chart for today a "boom" chart on the ECM five days ago?

There is some very cold air across the Thames estuary at present. It must be the occlusion on the 18z fax chart moving west. Snowing now

in Kent, Suffolk and on the outskirts of North and NW London !! :o

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

Based on the latest Fax chart for tomorrow morning the Met Office has issue a new warning for an area of snow, moving WEST across Southern Englnad, southern Midlands and South east wales, with an easterly flow. Some of these areas could well awake to a covering tomorrow morning ! :o

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=uk&tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-4.50&lat=55.74&fcTime=1360497600

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

3pm Sunday, everywhere has rain http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

There is snow falling over mountains of scotland, and eskaldalmuir, and also at altitude in Bingley.

Everywhere else has rain, but the snow is forecast to move in around midnight as the system

starts to move away south east. Its still 5.5oC the temp has someway to drop before it will turn to snow.

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

Latest NAE charts,

Sunday 12pm Northern England looks good for snow,

Monday 12am Snow reaching into Scotland and parts of Northern England, Midlands and South East,

Monday 6am Snow affecting the same parts but Southern England could see more at this time,

In the longer term the Atlantic does look really weak as the GFS shows,

And UKMO at 144h not as flat as last nights run as it also makes the Atlantic weaker,

Looks like the sweet spot will be central southern england a fair bit in land from the coast

Why is there a blue rain area at midnight over parts of Cambs, and norfolk ? Is this signs

of a warm sector or less cold air being drawn in down the wash ? It then turns light pink

around dawn !?!

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

Actually look at the very latest rainfall radar, there appears to be a circulation developing over Sussex with a rotational flow evident

on the radar ?

http://www.raintoday.co.uk

Although it is not shown on the 18z Fax ( 1st frame )? Could this steer the precipitation and track around the low, away from the east ? Or is this

a small surface feature that could be gone tomorrow ? We had something similar on the snow day on that friday some weeks back

and the snow ended up being further west and south ? Any thoughts welcome ?

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

hi teits.

The GFS will be to far NE/E.

It always is.

S

Hello Steve.

News 24 just quoted exactly what you are saying. He mentioned a stalling front moving away South east. What charts was the EITS showing ?

Maybe the charts posted above have been updated since then ?