JOPRO
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Good News, Looks like an early spring is due for the US could this help us get some cold weather in to the uk? However not certain how accurate this model is.......???
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3427649/Pennsylvania-groundhog-set-predict-winter-ends.html
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Given this winter so far, I would say miracle of biblical proportions!!
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You can just tell we are heading for a horrible wet and cold spring, which is a bout as much use as T**s on a bull....!
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Been out to the wood shed (no pun intened) all morning splitting firewood for the rest of the winter don't know why Ian bothering as it fells milder than when I did the last lot back at the end of September. It is disgustingly mild for the time of year but still plenty of time yet, after all we can always rely on that old wives tale that when it's cold in the US we get it two weeks later! Scientifically proven and guaranteeded to verify..................
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Love it, just as a few mild charts start knocking around people hit the panic button and say we are heading back to December!! Do people not realise how extreme and rare that event was same as November 2010 was for cold. Think we could see some interest for cold start showing up in the charts over the weekend.
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57 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
It's starting to look like we are looking at a mild / very mild outlook through to the end of Jan and into feb guys...so at least the daffs will be happy!
Like the arrival of swallows in spring we await the return of knocker and his red crayon to the mod thread!!
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I thought winter ended in December? How can it be over again!!? Just shows how foolish it can be to rite of f whole periods of weather and taking the models as given, wether they show cold or mild.
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Not a bad little cold spell some nice crisp days and frost (more still to come) and then a day or so of laying snow, got to take my 2 year old sledging at the same spot I first went during the 87 cold spell when I was 3 special memories! Not an epic cold spell but better than that abortion of a late autumn/early winter we had to suffer during November and December!
Looks like we wont have to long to wait for the next round, bring it on!
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Light snow in rural Northants now.
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3 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:
Are we sure that the models have got a good handle on that sub-tropical storm yet? Storm Alex?
It's just that @fergieweatheralluded to it causing a blocked Atlantic and low pressure tracking south of the UK. Unless the picture has changed overnight and we hear any different today then it's something to keep an eye on.
Can I also add that Ian has access to MOGREPS which has been absolutely rock solid in its outputs over the last few winters, when has he ever said it has done a GFS style flip??
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So after the longest battle between the models I can remember the cold spell begins tonight, let's see where it takes us! Good luck to everyone hopefully we will see some snow and heavy frosts, if it all goes down the toilet remeber it's just the weather!
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People still worrying about snow not showing on the charts,as has been said umpteen times get the cold in first. I can remember plenty of suprise snowfalls in the past for my area in 2010 and also 2013. Just chill (no pun intended!) once the cold is in the snow will follow.
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00hrs run seems to be a bit of an outlier from around the 19th, so lots of water to pass under the bridge as to where we are heading from next Monday/Tuesday, I really wouldn't be worrying about charts past 120/144Hrs. If we learn one thing from this episode it is that despite all the resent upgrades to the models they still struggle when we have cold synopsis for the UK, there just must be to many variables with us being right next door to the Atlantic to factor in. This mornings trend is for the cold spell to me extended by a couple of days, lets see if that continues.
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People at it again! Assuming charts post 120hrs are set in stone, think we have plenty more mileage left in this yet. Our man from the met office (Ian f)is still saying it's all to play for and he has access to the much hyped MOGREPS model and that has been almost rock solid with its output over the last few winters. Last time I think it struggled was Jan 2013 then what happend. I would treat any output post 120 with extreme caution and avoid absolute statements with regards to next week. Short term cold is on the way, after that all is up for grabs. Fascinating times!! Makes me think of the opion poll cock up during the last election, looks like it's going to take the exit poll to tell us where we are going!! Anyone for another GFS flip later??
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20 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:
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I wouldn't worry about those temps to much, we have been a good 1-2 degrees below at times what we where supposed to be today according to the bbc. Gives me a little bit of optimism regards Wednesday PPN and the chance of some surprise snowfall.
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I really think we shouldn't be worrying about what the models at showing after 120-144 hrs, what is agreed on is that we are looking a cold shot from Wednesday through to Saturday with a very good chance of snow. Beyond that is unknown as we lack and real concrete consensus between the models (yes we have some similarities but nothing you would bet your house on), those making statements about a return to Decembers abomination are very bold indeed. Still fascinating viewing and far from a done deal for a continuation of cold or a returne to mild. Anyone else feel a gfs upgrade coming later???
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Big swings again here from the GFS, anyone else think we could be in for a day of upgrades?? I must say this period of model watching has been one of the most fascinating in my 7 years of following this site. As a cold lover in winter so much uncertainty is a good sign as we have seen from December the models are very good at picking up mild set ups for the uk,which to be fair 80 % of the time in the uk is our default winter pattern. As i have said before uncertainty breeds opportunity for cold.
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Where is this rock solid consistency from the gfs some keep talking about? to my very ameturish eye every run seems to be heading in a different direction!!!
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Yes the GFS maybe consistent with the slow to clear troughing, but how do we know it isn't being consistently wrong??
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Bad news coldies, knocker has leaked the news of the cold spell to the express! Normally the deathnel of any cold spell when they run with these front page stories!!!
http://www.express.co.uk/ourpaper
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This run does show a warm up for the uk,but it is way out at 252hrs, as we all know how often do the models verify at that range??
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Awful charts this morning, if you like mike crap that is!!!
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Morning Ian!!!!!! What a load of tosh, we are the uk not Siberia, we seem to go through phases of mild winters and cold winters. We seem to be in a mild period at the mo, last winter was about average in my neck of the woods. This guff about low lying snow being confined to the history books is rubbish, as already mentioned we have been there and done this argument before. Does anyone have the link still to that article in the autumn of about 2008 writing off low level snow in the uk and that it was a thing of the past?? Think it was on the bcc news site .
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Good news coldies some of the news papers are running with the headline "washout winter", based on their past efforts at long range forcasts I suggest we prepare for for a bitterly cold dry period in the new year!!!
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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I think it was winter 2011/12 but we did manage a cold spell at the end of January/Start of February from what I remember with some snow and cold nights for a weeks or so. Seem to remember after what seemed like an eternity the Russian High back west and got us on the cold side of the bloc for a while before it was shunted east again. Maybe some can confirm this?