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JOPRO

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    Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Can we Start the winter 2014-15 Thread now? as this one is proving to be an utter waste of time! Still I did have 10mins of wet snow this morning. Was thinking about it earlier we are stuck in the total opposite of the to the 1962-3 Winter,3-4 Months of westerly/S westerly dross with short (Very Short!!!) interludes of cold northerly or easterly flow.

    • Like 1

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    yes March was very cold last year i agree, but the snow we did have didnt linger for very long despite the cold temperatures.  the sun is getting too strong by march for any snow to last long.  if we don't get any snow by mid february then this winter is over.

    Really? I live in northants and we had lying snow and drifts for a good 10 days last march, got a good three weeks from some of the drifts. But iam fairly rural, if you live in town you prob wouldn't get lying snow for as long because of the urban warming effect.

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    And before you know it.....winter weather will be....wait for it...(drum roll)......TEN DAYS AWAY.....ta daaaa...backed up by a chart showing stratospheric warming at t+288 or further out still.

     

    December was an epic fail of a winter month...January goes in the bin as well....February??? Does anyone have any faith that it will turn out any different? I don't...I reckon winter 2013/14 will go down as the worst since 1988/89...in terms of rainfall possibly even worse.

     

    Must mean it will be cold next winter for sure!! White xmas a dead cert. Posted Image (Yeah Rite....)

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by JOPRO

    I tried to PM but it appears you've blocked me for sending PM's to you for some reasonIan's account is no longer active on the forum, however he is on twitter

    so he has been a naughty boy then. Will unblock you when iam looking for warm in the summer,no offence meant, just am on the look out for cold during the winter months, mild dry weather doesn't float my boat this time of year that's all.
    • Like 1

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    As one of those people, I just thought I would say (as others have pointed out already) that I am NOT liking it due to the fact we could have yet more potential flooding and copious amounts of rain. I liked it because Ian (who no doubt is already busy enough) takes his spare time to post valuable information on this forum, which could even act as a pre-warning for areas potentially affected. This could allow them a little head start in making preparations just in case...

    Ok maybe we need another button, maybe a like the post but not the content lol. Calmed down a bit now, had to go and re do the sand bags in my garage for the thrid time in 2 months, hench my rant earlier.
    • Like 1

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I'm on the brink of giving up on january bringing anything wintry, so that would be 66 percent of winter gone without any winter. There is not one crumb of comfort from the latest met office outlook, just more of the same autumnal wind and rain with snow on the scottish mountains if they are lucky. I have lost all my enthusiasm. :-(

    Wouldn't read to much into the met outlook. Still waiting for my BBQ summer! Does anyone need any charcoal got a shed load thanks to that oulook, stacked next to all the salt I brought after reading maddens winter forcast back in October.....
    • Like 5

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    If the models have been so inconsistent over the last week why are we writing off anything beyond day 4 is beyond me? I for one am looking forward to a flip back to cold synopsis. Remember how many runs did we have showing an easterly or cold weather last week for the end of this week coming? Balance in our arguments people not flapping over a couple of runs. PS still waiting for the dead cert barttlet that was odds on to take hold of things for months on end before christmas??

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by JOPRO

    Ignor button on overtime this morning,normal doom merchants at it again! Can't we just see what rolls out of the models rather than having hysterical responses to each run/MO/CFS/EC 32dayer update. Stop flapping people and just see what transpires,if every model was right we would not be on here talking about the weather.

    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I can understand the sentiment but don't give up just yet. There is still enough variability run to run and noise in the ensembles for something to turn up at short notice even if it isn't the Easterly we were originally looking at and even that isn't completely off the menu either.

    I agree I feel there is still much to be decieded with the current pattern, could this be a normal pre cold spell wobble? Am still not convineced with how that low just sits out there in the Atlantic forming an almost perfect football. But what do I know iam still learning!
    • Like 1
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