[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, Geordiesnow said:

That shortwave has always been there, maybe it was not picked up on the 00Z run hence the clean northerly. Apart from a couple of the minor models hinting at the clean northerly flow, a less cold sector was always predicted by the other models including UKMO. It's a reason why the initial northerly collapses, always forecast as far I have seen.

Yes that's why i said its been there but its growing and the mild sector growing with it.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

11 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Where has this stupid shortwave come from across the suites today.

Hopefully it disappears again, but at 72 hours it's likely not going too!

That shortwave is growing and so is the mild sector across the suits all different timing on when it pushes south but its visble across all nice cold rain for many could'nt make it up.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Ukmo the best but you can see its slowly moving faster at closing lobe separations off compared to earlier.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, Rob 79812010 said:

Interesting! Thanks so much for that

Surely a slip of the finger on the wrong emoji

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Gefs 7 has it right.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Ultra consistent on the rise to average and then ????.

Would average be enough with all the telconnections to blow them out of the water?

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It looks like we will have a brief weak reversal around the 18th but it’s not going to make any difference being a tech reversal. The strat is suffering irrespective of whether it actually happens at 10 hpa 60 N 

Thanks and would the NWP react to uptake in zonal wind as per chart or would there be a lag effect.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

24 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Thats yesterday's zonal chart.. and let's be honest it's been about as useful as a 1 legged bloke at a butt kicking contest.

Sorry but this has been showing every update western momentum takes off after near reversal ?

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Lets be honest Zonal flow goes after the near reversal or did it reverse at 10pha?

[Ireland Regional Weather Discussion]

Ecm gives us snow Tuesday morning if only.

[Ireland Regional Weather Discussion]

29 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

12z update before the ECM.

UKMO- dry and cold, very little snow

GEM- mainly dry and cold, perhaps some snow in a weeks time

GFS- Dry and cold, no snow at all.

Looks crap to be honest.

UKMO looks unbelievable to you see the snow graph for us only precipitation that comes in has a mild sector i really do give up.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Difference between gfs v icon @120hr a slight backtrack on last gfs run 96hr is the fi.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

2 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Block does look weaker though so Atlantic may come in sooner on this if it ran on further

Much better run clean northerly and that bluge is gone and low esb sliding better.

[Ireland Regional Weather Discussion]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

At least England,  Wales and Scotland have snow coming.

The latest GFS has pretty much no snow for us until next Friday and even then it's a brief affair. 

Every run precipitation all around us and when it looks like coming in it decays before it hits us one thing for sure rain never misses our wee island.

[Ireland Regional Weather Discussion]

There some craic in the mad thread

[Ireland Regional Weather Discussion]

Just now, mountain shadow said:

Well, even a stopped clock is right twice a day, and if the GFS does turn out to be right, its through chance. It's still the fourth best performing model after the ECM, UKMO and GEM.

Hopefully tomorrow will be a better day.

I always cast myself back to the end of last years northerly it got correct when the others disregarded it only to come onside these short waves up north around Iceland are killing the cold not the low from the south they need to do one.

[Ireland Regional Weather Discussion]

7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Poor ECM and GFS for Ulster tonight with a failed Northerly and no snow about. The trough on Monday night is rain for us as we're in the mild sector.

UKMO and GEM are better.

More runs needed.

It has to be said the gfs was getting slated and once again this winter it's been a useful tool to use can never disregard it middle ground always the most likely outcome.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, Scott Ingham said:

Day 7 is an imby chart if I’ve ever seen one! Nail biting if your in the south!

It's a step in the wrong direction hopefully outlier in its suit.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, RainAllNight said:

I don't know what this means 

Rain plenty of cold rain for south coast.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

14 minutes ago, Jacob said:

Yeah a whole foot of snow is definitely a just a dusting 

Looks legit.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

ARPEGE clean flow direct northerly.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Cleanas a whistle EC control and mean boom

[Ireland Regional Weather Discussion]

8 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Good to see it getting busier in here now that snow is on the way.

Let's hope for a better NNW to N Northerly with frequent snow showers to kick things off early next week.

That northerly is being shortened run by run the gfs was on to something collapsing that Greenland high early now watch the lows slide and mess us.

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Jma 18z clean northerly.

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

1 minute ago, LRD said:

If that ECM run comes off at Day 10 (which it won't) you won't need snow shovels. The rain will wash the snow away by Day 11!

But the cold might be back again shortly after

The cold will whip around the low all gold north west

If only this was in reliable