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booferking

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    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, chris55 said:

    Not very good?

     

    Im baffled by some members interpretations of the current synoptic pattern….

    Northern hemisphere’s profile is rare as hens teeth in mid winter.

    Split vortex with the thrust of energy to the eastern side of the globe. Not a Barlette in sight and the Atlantic onslaught non existent. 

    I’ll get my coat….and thermals ready;)

     

     

    Do you follow trends on NWP.

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Pembroke Dangler said:

    Exactly my thoughts, if we can get the low in the Azores and cold trough dropping down from the north to meet somewhere would get a decent snow event and I’m all about the risk reward, the uppers don’t need to be -10 for that -2 or below would suffice in this set up with frontal Snow, then watch the temps drop afterwards. 

    Would be nice to have a nice clean Greenland high and a clean northerly with snow showers for a few days then let the Atlantic come in for battleground situations later on.

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Chesil View said:

    Fair enough Booferking but in reality the hieghrs are more than enough to do what we want. The Atlantic is dead and the cold air is still coming south.

    Yea it's slowly coming but it's the delays i don't like hopefully not a trend setting in let's see where the mean sits definitely better than what's been on offer the last few years that's for sure.👍

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by booferking

    4 minutes ago, Chesil View said:

    No doubt there will be nervous nelly's getting worried. But in reality the 12z ecm is simply a slightly slower evolution to the same outcome as before and one that has always been in the ensemble envelope.

    Take your pick you don't want the trend to weaking the heights in Greenland hopefully an outlier which we will see later but gfs op been showing this for a couple of days now.

    ECH1-240 (2).gif

    ECH1-240 (3).gif

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

    Not very good at all? I’m genuinely astonished anyone can say that chart isn’t good… if you’re expecting 1963 charts at that stage then yes it’s not very good but if we got to that stage above on the 14th January I would be very happy with that.

    It’s all relative, not very good… I could post several NH profiles that are not very good and that’s definitely not one.

    Trust me what was offer previous runs compared to this yes this is not very good mate if you want frost knock yourself out you'll get that with Ecm tonight it might get there in the end but the trend to delay the northerly not good hopefully an outlier in the suit.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

    Surely the trough over scandi would be the main player here..shouldn't have to worry about that low West of iberia...

    The low west of iberia is helping to prop up the high Greenland low moving south of scandi this run is as clean as it gets enjoy winter is coming 🥶❄️

    ECM1-240 (2).gif

    • Like 6
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