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booferking

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Posts posted by booferking

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, TEITS said:

    Have to say regardless of your location the current output is excellent and to be fair you will never get a set up that will deliver for everyone. Only the likes of 1947 do this when blocking alternates between Scandi & Greenland.

    So the initial surge of cold N,lys around 14th/15th Jan looks likely despite some dodgy ECM runs a few days ago. At this stage snowfall looks limited but you never know what will develop in the N,ly flow.

    Now onto my favourite part which reminds me of the late 1970s, 80s. The classic old skool situation of a blizzard for some, snow to rain for others, and then some seeing snow to rain and then back to snow again. At the moment impossible to say who will hit the jackpot but based on the current output and my own personal experiences I would say the bullseye is slightly further S than the ECM has this.

    My reasoning is this. Note for my location the ECM operational is very close to the mean.

    image.thumb.png.cc72db6f506202cc1e2d4a9998da3304.png

    Now look for the S coast of England. This is way higher than the operational.

    image.thumb.png.5ecf7c33603cd7e38e5fa4e6fce298e2.png 

    So the above combined with my own personal experience of these set ups suggest the main risk of heavy snow is further S with the N limit being around 30miles N of London. Subject to change though!!

    More like france main risk for heavy snow for me.

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

    Taking the GEFS12z and GEFS18z on face value, the percentage of ending up with what I would describe as being a 'stinker' run (significantly above the mean by the middle of the run without sustained recovery thereafter e.g. 12z control & 18z P20) remains about the same for both suites - 22%.

    Yea trend not good and zonal winds on the uptake quite quickly after the near reversal seen this all before doesn’t bode well cast yourself back to last cold spell end Nov start Dec the SPV reorganised itself and the rest was history one of the wettest December on record.

    GDWgwMNWMAAf8u6.png.9edb19db72947ebc8325fd1e1b934101.png

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, frosty ground said:

    That doesn’t really make any sense, what energy is being sent south east?

    the lack of heights over the Atlantic and Greenland causes the issue the higher heights to the south east have been on many a run these last few days.

     

    If you discount the wedge that’s going to form and keep the UK cold 

    Sorry if you don't like what i say just hit the ignore button i just say what i see I'm taking the runs as face value and that's what i see hopefully ecm is sniffing up the wrong agenda and falls in line with gfs & gem.

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