daveinSB
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Posts posted by daveinSB
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Judging by the movement of the rain on the radar, the centre would appear to be over the top of me in North London currently
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Some heavy showers breaking out ahead of the initial rain band
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3 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:
Where did you see this?
Here you go Beka!
Hampshire authorities to declare major incident as Storm Ciarán heads to Hampshire
WWW.HAMPSHIRECHRONICLE.CO.UK
Local authorities; emergency services and partner agencies are ready to support residents across Hampshire & Isle of Wight, ahead of Storm…-
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It's quite staggering how much model divergence there still is at this point.
I'm never 100% sure whether we should give the high resolution, short range models more credence at this point. Intuition says yes?
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Interesting to see the details of Ciaran as the high resolution models get in closer range, with the latest UKV - albeit a single run, and to be taken with a pinch of salt without human input - bringing 2 distinct periods of high winds over our neck of the woods.
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6 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:“It’s north” “it’s south” “it’s west” “it’s east “
can anyone with any actual credibility here comment on how this may be affecting us as some people (not me this far north) are actually worried.
the storm has barely formed yet so saying it’s a french event is silly. Please, anyone?Ignore people commenting on individual model runs, and pay attention to the Met Office text and video forecast that are produced with expert human input from a blend of the computer models.
There will be significant impacts from wind and rain across a large part of southern England and Wales.
The Met Office deep dive, and the attendant charts are your best bet for now.
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Just now, James Maidstone said:
Why would there be an amber warning extension for winds northwards when the models are trending further South?
Part of the reason will be because despite individual movements between runs, the Metoffices blended forecast, with human input, has remained broadly the same throughout.
Combined with the fact that the fact that it's been very wet recently, the trees are in full leaf, and the storm will be at its peak in populated areas in the daytime.
It's much more than absolute data from individual model runs
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1 minute ago, ChannelThunder said:
Well, that didn't age well. Just 6 hours later and it's back south-shifted instead.
Is the 18z Arpege even out yet? Or are you referring to another model?
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Staying in Boscombe this weekend, got a direct hit from the cell just now, round 2 has no T&L so far, but here comes the rain
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29 minutes ago, stripeyfox said:
where abouts are you? I'm in Melton and remember the Good Friday flood of 1998. Hopefully the dams constructed since then will prevent a repeat.
I remember heading down to the country park that day and seeing the water right up against the top of the only natural dam that was there at the time, in the visitor center car park.
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15 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:
Was heavier down here than the radar was showing, do it's probably just showing right. I'm soaked lol
I really noticed how it was under-reporting the intensity of the rain in North London earlier
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7 minutes ago, Nick L said:
Really should be warnings out for central, southern and eastern England for Friday IMO. Really quite a nasty rain event possible, soils will be saturated over the next couple of days.
There's a yellow warning for the south east, unless it's been cancelled?
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Yellow warning for London and the South East for rain on Friday. Also a wind warning up the east coast
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Warnings removed elsewhere, presumably just while they update them?
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6 minutes ago, snow raven said:
So why the weather warnings about rain and flooding?
The big elephant in the room when it comes to global warming is restricting how many children we can have. If we carry on the way we are, with no limit, earth simply cannot cope.
I'm very much on your side regarding overpopulation, but the weather warnings for rain and flooding are because its raining and flooding
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I don't think there's any disputing that June was hot. The hottest on record by almost a whole degree.
Whether that is hot enough for people's personal preference is another thing entirely.
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I was just woken up by the rain in Shepherds Bush, a serious downpour!
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Not sure of the temperature, but there was a pleasant chill in Mill Hill this morning as I arrived at work, perhaps too cold for just my polo shirt. Also noticed some dew, it felt rather autumnal indeed
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Looking south from Melton Mowbray
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Delighted to see initiation around the Swindon area, looking good for me in Melton Mowbray later this afternoon
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5 minutes ago, Metwatch said:
Cumulus building
Yep, some cumulus bubbling up looking east from Melton Mowbray currently
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Torrential rain in W12 (Shepherds Bush) last 10 minutes, just letting up now.
Our balcony is thoroughly flooded
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I've been out of the model thread for a bit, what does CCKW stand for?
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6 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:
For those is London and the South East going into meltdown over today's weather. It's just a nice drop of much needed summer rain.
I actually don't mind the weather today and what's forecast for tomorrow, I enjoy interesting weather and the strong winds later today (potentially) and tomorrow's wind and convection interest me just as much as a severe heatwave.
I also run extremely hot and suffer from hyperhidrosis on my face and head, so a bit of cool, rainy weather doesn't bother me as much.
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Storm Ciarán
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
It's all about Hazard and Risk though, if more people are aware of the hazards via the warning system, then there should be a lower risk of harm to the population overall.
People seem to think that warnings apply to them specifically, when it's more about probability of impacts