philglossop
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Posts posted by philglossop
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Roads starting to be call in with flooding. Usual suspects- Embankment Road, Lipson Road, Albert Gate Devonport.
Power issues in South Hams in Newton and Noss, Yealmpton. -
So this is what an MCS is like!
It’s horrendous frequent lightning and heavy rain.
All lads off street!
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Looks like a mast has been hit on Derrys Cross roundabout. 100m away. Whole area just shook!
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This is better than Christmas!!!
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Jesé it’s bouncing down and like night outside!
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Here comes the rain!!!
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All the lights are on at ground level!
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Amazing flash towards the Barbican!!
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from top of theatre royal mscp. Thundering heavily and really electric atmosphere
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Turning black as ace of spades and a few rumbles. I’ll nip up top of car park to see what’s happening
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That Plymouth strike was right over my old house!
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Sky has that pink look to it this morning in Plymouth City centre…
A few strikes out Start Point way already
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Best times - bear in mind I have Summer Sads.
1. Early October - that sweet spot of a couple of weeks when here normally the trees are just turning and if it’s dry it can be magical.
2. Mid December- party season, the looking forward to Christmas.
3. Early May. It’s just before I need to start my meds but it’s usable nice period normally.
Funny I don’t hate much but this Summer hasn’t been too bad for my condition but I did get twitchy early August- which I expected and worked some leave around. Give it a couple of weeks and I’ll be happy as Larry again!
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Storm Corrie?
That's going to led to issues with tabloids surely?
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So th
e QBO keeps us guessing. The last week has seen a definite weakening of the Westerlies in the Strat and a move of the Easterly finally down to 40 HPA. Looks much more promising than a fortnight ago.
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Whilst at football on Wednesday night- it was odd to think a mere month ago- you could just about get to fulltime without the floodlights- we certainly did down at Wadebridge Town.
Now they're on at half time and sunset was before halftime 2015hrs. Ironically floodlights failed at Wadebridge Wednesday night!!
I'm still hoping to get to Greece the last week of September, but when I get home- then it'll be full on Autumn- and my favourite time of year.
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I see the local Horse chestnuts have their rust now- so they'll be gone in a couple of weeks max depending on wind and rain.
All other trees are very much into the darkest shade of green now.
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17 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:
Hope that doesn't lead to a feedback like in 2019 that ends up giving us a polar vortex of doom again. Don't want another one of those to happen and ruin winter for us do we?
I’ve just read that article and it’s click bate. The southern polar vortex is still firmly in place and will come under some pressure towards the end of the latest model run (which is a bit like our polar vortex having a warming in March). As you read it, you’d think a suddenly strat warming was the like the world ending!
Yes it may effect Australia weather for early Spring - ie Wetter than normal but I’m not concerned for us at this stage.
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On 20/08/2021 at 11:26, SqueakheartLW said:
Is something weird going on with the QBO again?
Take a look at the latest QBO chart
Now the delay to the EQBO descent is not unusual as I have seen this in many of the past EQBO phases where the WQBO takes some time to disappear from below 40hpa in particular
1 - What appears to be unusual here is how the EQBO got down to 40hpa almost and just recently the WQBO appears to be pushing back upwards towards 30hpa again and a clear slowing down of the EQBO at 30hpa can be seen with the blues getting replaced by the light greens again. Hope this isn't the first signs of yet another failure of the EQBO
2 - The last time the WQBO pushed back upwards in the 2019/2020 season we all know what happened next. The main bit of hope however is that this is happening lower down and so could have less bad of an effect on the EQBO prospects for winter 2021/2022
Look at this QBO chart too and see the weird happening here too
Now the progression of the QBO on these charts should be anticlockwise lines drawn around the central point at varying speeds depending on the descent speed of the QBO
1 - Notice how the line on this occasion first enters a weaker than average EQBO and initially almost follows the same weakness at the failed EQBO line before diverging on a better path. The strange part here is how we come to a stop then make an almost reverse path in recent times. This does look strange on this chart to see a backwards progression of the QBO.
2 - It would seem this backwards progression isn't a unique event as it would seem it also happened early in 2018 as well.
The big difference here is how much weaker the current EQBO is compared with the 2018 one. Our current EQBO appears to be amongst the weakest on record with only 2020 and a couple of other EQBO years as weak or weaker than this year compared with 2018 which was amongst the strongest EQBO's on the record.
Agree- something is happening again. It's a very weak EQBO as you highlighted. The only similar year I could see like this is from summer 1988- and the WQBO came back very quickly following a weak rapid descent. Those brown colours in the very top of the stat around a month ago set me off wondering (even if some didn't think my concern was needed).
If you do the animation on the QBO SIngapore- you'll see what I mean with 1988. and to a point 1991. Could this be the shorted EQBO as it was stuck in the stat from 2019 onwards I wonder?
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Its galloping now- sunset was 2023 last night and having been in bed with bad back to wake up to darkness at 9pm was a surprise.
I'm not used to Septembers in UK as normally I've been in Greece for 2 or 3 weeks for the last 10 years but I think this year with work back to normal, I'll really notice it.
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August 1995 was a cracking end to a fabulous summer. I've got photos taken from Peak District around my late Nans home in Holmesfield and its brown fields everywhere- especially around the wooden pole above Totley.
We lost my Aunt in the July after some horrendous thunderstorms on the night Monday 10th (the best display in my lifetime here in Plymouth) and she died the following night- so I remember not sleeping much that week. Dartmoor was parched dry for weeks- and coming home from her funeral at Moretonhampstead- it was announced Robbie had left Take That (funny what you remember!).
Burrator reservoir was as low as 1976 and it was just as Roadford was coming online but we nearly went into rationing again like 1976.
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Sorry apologies for last post was in work in a hurry - yup weak La Niña is the current form card for ENSO this winter.
I think this talk of front loaded - whilst very early doors- may well be correct. More data needed in coming months mind
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The QBO is something I’ve really got into the last few years- the eQBO failure last winter whilst strange wasn’t that unexpected- it was the powering up of the wQBO in the trop that was the surprise.
It may have done us as favour- as all things being equal, we should now be seeing a new WQBO developing in the Strat and whilst we’ve got some minimum development it’s nothing to worry about having done some checking- and this winter will hopefully be a developing strong EQBO.
As northwest snow highlights if we get a weak or Western based enso El Niño that will influence some long range forecasts.
I just personally wish the Pacific was a lot colder than it is currently - that’s a real fly in the ointment…..
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Storms and Convective discussion - 25th July 2021 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
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Yup a few flashes towards Saltash and Callington. I thought it was calming down here but another massive rumble and flash close by.