Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

philglossop

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,214

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

 Content Type 

Posts posted by philglossop

    Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by philglossop

    On 20/08/2021 at 11:26, SqueakheartLW said:

    Is something weird going on with the QBO again?

    Take a look at the latest QBO chart

    Untitled.thumb.png.1c7b1449d223aa361e2020bce35a7f66.png

    Now the delay to the EQBO descent is not unusual as I have seen this in many of the past EQBO phases where the WQBO takes some time to disappear from below 40hpa in particular

    1 - What appears to be unusual here is how the EQBO got down to 40hpa almost and just recently the WQBO appears to be pushing back upwards towards 30hpa again and a clear slowing down of the EQBO at 30hpa can be seen with the blues getting replaced by the light greens again. Hope this isn't the first signs of yet another failure of the EQBO

    2 - The last time the WQBO pushed back upwards in the 2019/2020 season we all know what happened next. The main bit of hope however is that this is happening lower down and so could have less bad of an effect on the EQBO prospects for winter 2021/2022

    Look at this QBO chart too and see the weird happening here too

    Untitled2.thumb.png.6e9e4e2ee147c77a46ceea9e8a685931.png

    Now the progression of the QBO on these charts should be anticlockwise lines drawn around the central point at varying speeds depending on the descent speed of the QBO

    1 - Notice how the line on this occasion first enters a weaker than average EQBO and initially almost follows the same weakness at the failed EQBO line before diverging on a better path. The strange part here is how we come to a stop then make an almost reverse path in recent times. This does look strange on this chart to see a backwards progression of the QBO.

    2 - It would seem this backwards progression isn't a unique event as it would seem it also happened early in 2018 as well.

    The big difference here is how much weaker the current EQBO is compared with the 2018 one. Our current EQBO appears to be amongst the weakest on record with only 2020 and a couple of other EQBO years as weak or weaker than this year compared with 2018 which was amongst the strongest EQBO's on the record.

    Agree- something is happening again. It's a very weak EQBO as you highlighted. The only similar year I could see like this is from summer 1988- and the WQBO came back very quickly following a weak rapid descent. Those brown colours in the very top of the stat around a month ago set me off wondering (even if some didn't think my concern was needed).

    If you do the animation on the QBO SIngapore- you'll see what I mean with 1988. and to a point 1991. Could this be the shorted EQBO as it was stuck in the stat from 2019 onwards I wonder?

     

    • Like 1

    August 1995 Hot dry and sunny

    in Historic Weather

    Posted

    August 1995 was a cracking end to a fabulous summer. I've got photos taken from Peak District around my late Nans home in Holmesfield and its brown fields everywhere- especially around the wooden pole above Totley.

    We lost my Aunt in the July after some horrendous thunderstorms on the night Monday 10th (the best display in my lifetime here in Plymouth)  and she died the following night- so I remember not sleeping much that week. Dartmoor was parched dry for weeks- and coming home from her funeral at Moretonhampstead- it was announced Robbie had left Take That (funny what you remember!). 

     

    Burrator reservoir was as low as 1976 and it was just as Roadford was coming online but we nearly went into rationing again like 1976. 

     

     

    Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    The QBO is something I’ve really got into the last few years- the eQBO failure last winter whilst strange wasn’t that unexpected- it was the powering up of the wQBO in the trop that was the surprise. 
     

    It may have done us as favour- as all things being equal, we should now be seeing a new WQBO developing in the Strat and whilst we’ve got some minimum development it’s nothing to worry about having done some checking- and this winter will hopefully be a developing strong EQBO.

    As northwest snow highlights if we get a weak or Western based enso El Niño that will influence some long range forecasts.

    I just personally wish the Pacific was a lot colder than it is currently - that’s a real fly in the ointment…..

    • Like 1

    Summer 1996

    in Historic Weather

    Posted

    Yes 1996 was another half decent Summer- all helped by Euro 96, lots of drinking in pubs watching England. August wasn't as good but I was in Derbyshire in July on holiday and it felt pretty close to 1995. 

    • Like 1

    Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by philglossop

    28 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

    Looks like we are now officially into the EQBO

    image.thumb.png.238c4e5f21a0dc5f3339a9fd8849a207.png

    When looking at the above chart we can see a clear EQBO now at 30hpa and it is looking close to reaching 40hpa now too. There are also clear signs at 10hpa of a weakening of the EQBO, no doubt a sign of the next WQBO getting ready higher up. Below 40hpa there's not a lot left of the remaining WQBO with a weak peak at 40hpa.

    Untitled.thumb.png.a6338e0a59ec9fb2e6be3f49ef42bece.png

    Time to take a more detailed look at the QBO chart itself

    1 - Finally after what must be 2 years at least we now appear to have a proper EQBO showing up and there appears to be no signs that this one is going to fail this time around. No sign of the weaker EQBO at 10hpa on this chart though

    2 - The last time we came close to an EQBO is still showing on this chart with the weak WQBO and the anomalous easterlies that formed underneath this too which was the main reason for number 3 zone happening

    3 - The ongoing WQBO which could have been the deciding factor in our near miss winter 2020/2021. How close we came to a big freeze setup potentially getting going and it just didn't quite come off in the end. What if we had had the EQBO which we should have had during last winter. Would that have just tipped the balance enough to give us a much colder winter than we ended up with.

    4 - It seems we have had an EQBO between 10 and 20hpa for ages now at various strengths and still it continues on up here but for how long

    Good stuff- the QBO was foxing last year- and last Summer especially with the WQBO down in the Trop. 

     

    I think we'll have the E QBO in the Strat for probably the rest of the year- with W starting to appear around the turn of the year. Little doubt this winter will be a mature E QBO- interesting stuff!!!!

    • Like 2

    Spring 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Funny how people are saying how things changed post 1987, because whilst out walking this weekend- the only similar year I can think of here for this spring is 1986.  My Dad has loads of photos of me on Dartmoor aged 12 and spring was as late as this year. That was a cold spring here, leading to a miserable Summer countrywide. But the winter 86-87 was pretty memorable!

    • Like 1
×
×
  • Create New...