Joe Levy
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It would be nice if we got some thundery downpours here! I hope Dartmoor doesn't kill off or reduce the intensity of those showers too much.
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Currently the upper air temperatures are coldest in the south of england, and with low dewpoints, snow is by far the most likely form of precipitation for today at least. Tomorrow is a different story though.
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It seems to be doing a pretty good job of progressing south-westward - it's already reached Worcestershire and is approaching the Severn Valley. Perhaps, as you say, the sun will be on our side this time.
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I do like the look of that mass of convective precipitation over the west midlands that is growing and heading directly towards the South-West
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Just had a brief snow shower in Exeter. They seem to be getting slightly more lively each time they pass us now. Before, they were mostly just occasional flakes, but this last one had some notable flurries in it.
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I am hoping that as the wind veers more north-easterly, the showers from the Wash northwards will affect a wider area of the South-West in their progression. They are already reaching northern coasts of the peninsula and the front has barely moved away.
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I think that as the frontal precipitation moves away, there will be a lot more convective precipitation developing in the region, exactly as you've observed.
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The cloud is now thickening, having had bright sunshine this morning, and there are increasing numbers of snow grains on the breeze. EDIT: there are now some bigger flakes as well occasionally
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Well if they can make it over the Welsh mountains then they can make it over Salisbury Plain, currently the first obstacle for the showers. Maybe around tea time we will see something from those showers.
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It's so hard to know! Showers can turn up almost anywhere and they can also change their track or fizzle out so it is a case of watching and waiting
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Yes, although I am watching that cluster of showers moving south-west of Reading, as it has gained some intensity recently and is not slowing down yet.
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Well there hasn't been snow here, but in compensation we do have some glorious sunshine with lovely fluffy white cumulus clouds drifting about! And, you never know, we might even see some snow showers!
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Well at least there is more than one way we can have snow today!
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Oh I see well let's hope that the low keeps sending precipitation northwards and doesn't move east too quickly! It will be interesting to see what the situation is in a few hours!
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Oh I completely agree! It helps us as well. If the low pressure drifts too far east then we won't get much snow either. I should point out that it's not just you that has catching up to do! In Devon and Cornwall there has been some snow but very little except over high ground.
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It's almost static at the moment. It's scarcely moved from the West coast of Brittany for several hours now.
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Snow still light but a bit more persistent now and the flakes are a bit bigger too.
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Absolutely tiny flakes of snow blowing in on the wind.
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I am watching as the precipitation band pivots and it is agonizingly close to Exeter, I just hope it makes it!!
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Yes it did, though I was more referring to the short range computer models than the professionals. I think Ian's prediction will be the closest to reality, though perhaps snow will be more extensive in Cornwall judging by the radar, as well as perhaps a tiny bit further north elsewhere.
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It would seem that Lyme Bay is the best place for snow in the next few hours i.e. anywhere from Eastern Dartmoor, round across the Exe Valley, the rest of East Devon and into West Dorset. After that is anyone's guess! The precipitation distribution is most definitely different to what has been forecast so far, even on the 18z runs
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Could it not just be delaying the pivoting motion by slowing the whole low pressure system down a bit? Forecasts often overstate the eastward track of low pressure in such scenarios. I remember one occasion in London where snow was forecast to reach London by the morning but it got stuck over South-West England because the low pressure system moved much slower.
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I would guess that you would see some by 2 o'clock though it probably won't start for another half an hour or so from now.
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I don't think that was a movement north-eastwards, I think it was more that the precipitation band expanded, as it did the same thing on the western flank as well. The pivot movement is still north-westwards, and as the low pressure is slow moving, it will be in our region for some time, no matter how far north it gets.
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The radar is really coming to life, much more than I thought it would. I think that pretty much anywhere from Dorset westwards on the South Coast stands to do well from this tonight, but who knows! Anything could happen! I have my fingers crossed for all of us!
