Joe Levy

It is looking brilliant isn't it! I am feeling very nervous though haha, as I just want that band of precipitation to keep pivoting towards us all and keep intensifying! Once it does that, maybe then I can calm down haha

It's nice to see there is still optimism on here, and with good reason as we speak the system is pivoting a large band of precipitation into South Devon and as the low pressure system moves eastward, the areas affected will be further east. Since the South Coast rarely gets much snow, this may still turn out to be a comparatively notable event.

Your dew point needs to be a bit lower to be on the safe side, though I am sure they will fall below zero imminently

Well sleep is probably the best solution haha! We can't control the weather after all! I am personally optimistic about our chances for snow, since Exeter is in the area highlighted by the Met Office for snow potential, and that radar does have a lot of promise, so you never know! I live in London half the year, when I'm not at university, and a lot of snow there is aesthetically equivalent to a little snow here, since at least we have some countryside near Exeter where it looks pretty and won't go slushy as quickly!

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but on the basis of that satellite image, I'd say that the low pressure is perhaps slightly further north than some of the 18z runs were modelling it to be. It's only very tiny if at all, but that makes a huge difference to who gets snow.

I would say that the opposite is happening at the moment from what I'm observing on the radar, at least in the last couple of hours. What at first looked like mostly showery activity has now become a very organised band and is pivoting northwards.

I was actually referring to other parts of the UK that are receiving snow currently and will continue to do so! and what about the Channel Islands? In any case, Cornwall and many parts of Devon have seen less snow than almost anyone else in the country so I do think we're owed a bit from this system haha!

My experience of these events is that a lot more precipitation develops ahead of the main band in the form of some hefty shower activity, and given how slowly the low pressure is moving, there are further opportunities for snow throughout tomorrow and even later. Besides, these events are so rare so the best we can do is congratulate those who get snow tonight! Good luck everyone!

The radar has picked up significantly in the last few hours. Also, the main precipitation forecast to reach the South-West is still leaving the coast of Brittany, pretty much as forecast. The issue is how far north it will get. For once, the closer to the coast you are, the more likely you will be to see snow. I would guess that it will reach us early tomorrow morning in its most substantial form.

I wouldn't be so sure. The radar is the most useful tool at the moment and I would see what shows up on that in the next few hours, as that is where any snow will come from. Also, the specifics of precipitation distribution are an entirely nowcast type situation, so we can only watch, wait and hope really!

Hopefully this link should give everyone a better picture of the precipitation potential for tonight and tomorrow http://www.meteox.co.uk/gmapstatic.aspx?zoom=7&type=zoom&x=167&y=303 if you have a look towards Brittany, you can see where the main low pressure system is and it is this which is forecast to head northwards. How far north, thus how much snow we get, is open to debate.

I would ignore the BBC graphics and the computer models now and look at the radar http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ and out your window, as they are always the best tools for short term snow forecasts.

It often feels like that! Though I think most of the South-West will have to wait a bit longer before any significant snow shows its hand this evening.

It is entirely possible that this is the case, as they haven't got precipitation forecasts right in other parts of the country today. Additionally, they may well have not picked up on the precipitation that can develop ahead of a weather front. By the way, if anyone wants to see how much snow falls on Dartmoor, where the amber warning is located, then this link is very good! http://www.dartcom.co.uk/dartcam/index.php

The colder uppers are arriving in the region as we speak. The main risk for snow is later tonight and especially after midnight into tomorrow morning, depending on the position of the low pressure system. So you will probably see at least some snow, just not quite yet!

From what I've gathered, the current bands of precipitation visible on the radar are ahead of the main low pressure system. The main precipitation band is due to arrive very early tomorrow morning, though the northerly extent of this is highly uncertain.

Some people are posting as if the ECM 12z is an exact forecast and will definitely happen. In my opinion, and for my location, it is potentially brilliant for cold and snow, but either way, it is too far away to be certain of anything! At this stage we can at least look forward to some drier colder weather, with a significant risk of more than that. Besides, we need some dry weather down here so as long as high pressure is somewhere nearby, I am happy!

It seems to me that since people are reading the charts in so many different ways, and matching different computer models in an equally diverse range of ways, that it may be better to continue waiting until a little more consistency emerges in the models. At the moment, the GFS is changing frequently between runs and so whilst it may well be picking up on certain key features, it clearly is struggling to model them correctly. We shall see...

I imagine many of those posts have been deleted. I completely agree - the scatter on the ensembles is proof of this inconsistency if nothing else, no matter where you look in the country! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php

Oh I understand. Thanks for clearing that one up well I still maintain that there is too much uncertainty for people to be giving up hope on chances of cold or to be affirming that there will be cold!

Yes that is true! Mind you, given experience from recent model output, FI can change position so much that t84 and t156 have been equally uncertain at times! I think it will be very difficult to gauge the chances of sustained cold until much closer to the time, possibly only a couple of days away, especially since slight changes in the positioning of the Azores high and the strength of the Canadian vortex can have extensive repercussions.

Yes you do make a very good point about the low at the weekend. However, I would say that given that the strength of any low pressure systems has an effect on the formation of high pressure (I think it's called WAA or something like that?) small features can make a big difference. On the 6z all low pressure systems seem to be much stronger in my eyes at least and consequently the high in south-western Greenland is at 1025mb at 156hrs as opposed to 1015mb from the previous run.

New poster on this thread here. I think this clearly highlights how we need to be careful about taking individual runs as the truth - if they can't manage to agree on what will happen in 90 hours time, how can they possibly be expected to give a conclusive answer on the chances of cold in 10 days time?

Yeah I thought it would do that, though the next lot of showers is much further wider and equally intense so you never know!

Yes I think I may head up towards Stoke Woods later as there will be some good snow up there. I went up there last night and it was beautiful! I've also just noticed a large mass of heavy precipitation to the south of Newton Abbot and I would imagine, based on its current movements, it is heading towards Exeter! Fingers crossed!!