The Post-modern Winter

You don't half mention this exact issue a lot. . Realistically though, I think 'lots of people' don't have any idea that the PV sitting to our NW producing cold for the U.S has any bearing on our weather and those who do care or take any interest in meterology, are more than likely listening to some of the wonderful posters of this forum who state that in the long term, this will have little bearing on our weather (See Tamara's post in the model thread). Of course there are the few that will relentlessly espouse negativity and unscientific, baseless talk of 'a repeat of last winter' and those who will have their hopes elevated and dashed with each model run. 'Lots of people' who matter though will sit back, view the models objectively and wait patiently in the understanding that the weather is an organic, complex process that makes fools of us all. But of course, keep banging the repetitive drum if you like the sound of it.

I have to agree SSIB. It reminds me of the time I produced a research paper a few years back - incredibly lengthy, thoroughly researched and wonderfully written. I broached it from an entirely objective viewpoint however - I let my prior knowledge, assumptions and beliefs dictate my approach to research and writing - It was swiftly discredited. I then examined the same subject a year later with the same vigour and thoroughness but also an open mind. It was subsequently published and widely acclaimed. I am no meteorologist, it is simply the research methods I am taking issues with I.e. Ignoring of the strat profile is the equivalent to my mistakenly objective approach to my work. I mean no offence to Ian on this front; I'm just surprised people are so incredibly willing to believe it is almost certainly correct. In all fairness, looking at Ian's dislikes as stated in his bio, I think he would thoroughly disagree with much of my academic work; each to their own though.

On the regional weather forecast for the North West on ITV last night, the forecaster stated that there is "no sign of it turning any colder, not until the end of November anyway". I'm aware this maybe nothing, but I am hearing many televised weather reports mentioning colder weather and the end of the month in to December. Does this tie in with Snowballz rather tantalising titbits concerning interest moving into December from yesterday, or am I clutching straws . .

Note how he's picked the chart showing Europe in isolation, whilst completely ignoring the incredible Northern hemispheric picture on the date in question. Purga's certainly not stupid, despite constantly playing dumb regarding posters looking/commenting on the bigger picture. . Edit: He is incredibly predictable though. A sharper, subtler Terrier if you will.

I'm entirely with NorthernRab here. Netweather, as a forum, but particularly with this thread, has an intellectual integrity that I think should be kept intact. I've been tempted to post at a number of points, but didn't want to interrupt the organic flow of the discussion. I think the work on the OPI is quite spectacular, but just as notable is the discussion within the thread form passionate and incredibly knowledgable people which I'm sure has impressed the research team working on this project. What this thread doesn't need is Terrier coming out from under his bridge, trolling the forum and ruining the intellectual and academic tone of the forum as mentioned above. All well and good doing so in the model thread where emotions run high, but this is different. Surprised the mods have let him get away with it really - A blot on what is a wonderful read. He really is the 'WORST POSTER EVER' . .

I'd like to congratulate you Terrier on finally posting the correct reference to Rodger's thoughts on Winter. Only took three attempts . . Additionally, seems to be an interesting amount of potential for a few decent/good cold spells, particularly in my location. A very satisfying forecast from my viewpoint.

Others will know better but I think Ian Brown stated that we'd never see a winter with anything more than transient snow events, with most people in the Uk getting little to no snow ever again. He thought of it as a epochal statement - an absolute truth which he termed T H E M-O-D-E-R-N W-I-N-T-E-R. My name is a nod towards the years after 2008 which have made him look like an absolute fool. I don't think he ever really recovered after 09-10. As I know too well whenever somebody quotes my bloody name. .

Much appreciated Summersun. I had a little inkling when I saw the forecast on the TWO thread that Terrier would jump the gun and post it as RJS' thoughts. Classic Terrier.

I think you said something similar about Roger predicting a mild winter a while back Terrier, when he hadn't even discussed his early thoughts. . I asked you to provide me with a link last time, but you ignored my request. Additionally, I'm not entirely sure that Roger63 of Theweatheroutlook forums is Roger J. Smith? Perhaps he is and I'm mistaken, but I'd imagine he would have also posted any preliminary winter thoughts on here if so as many do look out for them. .

Hello Terrier, could you possibly point me towards Rogers forecast? As you can see above, he posted only four days ago that he's not done much work on it but will do over the next few weeks. He also says that the output is near long-term averages but this is variable. Must have had a real break through over the past three days to decide winter will be warmer and wetter than average . .

Heavy snow again here, sticking on all surfaces.

Yep, no part of Wrexham centre is above 100M. It is mostly around 80. A few miles from the centre at almost 300m we have 3/4 centimetres. Very nice surprise.

I seem to recall that around the end of December into January he was liking every post that mentioned the word 'zonal' regardless of the level of analysis in it (i.e. "I think this winter through to march is going to continue to be zonal" - Ian Brown likes this), yet wasn't posting anything. I assume he'd had his posting rights revoked by this point for whatever reason. Incidentally, I was looking through some of the archives at his posts pre-2009 the other day. . The past few winters must have really bothered him. He was like a alternate universe James Madden. Completely mental.

I think we can all assume that Coram is attempting some sort of subtle (but unsuccessful) humour here. . Can't we?? Surely??

As is often the case Bobby's post conflicts with many of the above in a dramatic way. I'm aware I may sound like a broken record and that the models can be interpreted in a number of ways but surely as meteorology is a science the opinions should not differ to the extent of the above if a relevant level of knowledge is possessed (awful for snow/great for snow) With the subjectivity in here sometimes we may as well be discussing politics.

My reply was much more reserved than yours but we're essentially saying the same thing. Trolling or a poor level of knowledge considering the number of posts

Without many posts (95%) supporting my interpretation of the models I would otherwise assume I was very wrong when reading your post. Could you possibly spare the time to produce a slightly more detailed post (obviously not Murr detailed) to explain your interpretation. It would really help with my learning process. Thanks EML

Considering the number of posts stating that it is difficult to call what would occur beyond this and the absolute certainty with which you state this outcome, you really should be working for the Met office Purga. Ally this with the confidence you place on the zonal FI outcomes you often post in here, I'm surprised you haven't already been head-hunted by them.

This is very true. Whenever zonal outcomes are shown way in to FI Purga posts them and makes a statement about how "the westerly onslaught looks set to continue" or other such nonsense in a definitive manner. Never any statement of "It won't happen" then.

Thanks for posting this Bobby. Really cheered me up as I look in line to see something.

As we are on the topic of BBC forecasts is there usually this much uncertainty past 5 days in the possible minimum/maximum temperatures? For my location there there is a difference of 10 degrees between possible minimum and maximum temps for Friday and the same for the following week. Surely the BBC forecast isn't usually so non-committal and must reflect the current uncertainty that exists despite some advocating a certain continuation of Atlantic dominance. If it is always like that at day 6 I apologise for this post.

There's no maybe about it.

Do you think there is a reason why those who are ones for the "technical side of the weather" see the cold potential you don't? Clue: Answer is above in bold. There seems to be a lot of negativity from a group of posters tonight towards those who are very versed in the nature of the models, who don't take things at 240 hours at face value and attempt to see beyond what is showing based on vast experience and deep knowledge. These people, such as Steve Murr, Tamara, Snow King, Nick Sussex, Chino and Bluearmy (to name a few) are Netweather's best posters and without them the forum would be a much, much worse place. The disparaging comments, albeit indirectly, towards them are very much out of line and something that I feel should be pointed out.