The Post-modern Winter

Simply put - ???

Do you not think your above comment slightly contradicts the below? If 'eye candy' in FI is worthless due to record 'Shannon Entropy', can't the same be said for the more zonal outlook which you 'wouldn't be surprised' to see?

Sorry to quote you both, however I'm confused as to whether the ECM mean is blinkin' woeful or very encouraging. I'm naturally inclined towards the assessment of SK for a number of reasons but can anybody clarify why it can be construed to fall into either of these categories? Thank you

In all seriousness though Frosty and echoing the thoughts of many in here, please continue posting in the same positive manner that you do. I genuinely imagine you look like this in real life (or Roadrunner actually), so don't ruin a main part of my Netweather world. Hope to see you posting some positive charts in the morning!

Right, own up. Who told emotional rollercoaster Frosty's password?

Hmm, the other day you were saying the charts were very poor and you believed them over the Met Office's 16-13 forecast for potential cold in a few weeks time. Then you were championing the GFS stating that it was far more reliable than the ECM and probably had the pattern correct when the ECM was showing cold. Now the GFS is showing such solutions you've moved on to the BBC forecast. Where to next Terrier?

Completely irrelevant retort. If anything you are defending my point. Cheers for the support.

Exactly what I was just about to post. Thanks for saving me the time with a concise and clear argument.

Why are we waiting for their ECM32 update now? This is an issue which constantly arises with certain posters. When cold is suggested via any avenue, be it any various models or the MO, we must always wait for some other juncture. Then once this has passed, we must wait for something else. The Met Offices updates change daily so they are clearly receiving regularly updated information and making judgements based on it - today's updates seems to signify an increased confidence and wider scope (no longer just the North) for wintery weather towards the end of the month. Additionally, if I remember correctly, the last ECM32 was deemed poor for any cold throughout the next month yet the Met Office are continuing with the theme of increasingly colder weather towards the months end. So indeed we can wait for their next update, but I don't believe it wise to do so. It could show a decrease in the cold signal, a period to rival 1947 and if it does, the Met Office may take a different view to it as they seem to have done this month. Why can we not just accept what the premier weather organisation the world are saying at this moment and be positive about it without caveats from the same people over and over again.

Could you possibly point me towards Ian F's hints Terrier? If they are as you say they are, poor for colder weather, then it seems he is increasingly at odds with the Met office who have just mentioned 'rather cold' weather potentially appearing in the next two weeks and increasingly wintery weather in the 16-30 day forecast. Additionally, since Ian Brown has liked your post I assume you haven't interpreted Ian's thoughts incorrectly. Sorry to be a bother; just interested in his thoughts in light of this and I am struggling to find anything of relevance.

So much for relentless zonality and mild tempertures "at least until the end of January". A mention of cold in the further outlook is a step in the right direction for more seasonal weather; earlier than I had been hoping too.

Exactly, there is no right answer. So don't make definitive statements with supporting them.

In fairness he said "there's only one way from there". No 50/50 caveats stated or suggested. Simply a misleading statement which appears far to often on this forum. How I can come to the same (correct) conclusion as many of the experienced people on here with regards to that chart, considering my very limited exposure to the models, while somebody so accustomed to them can differ from them so much is strange. Really doesn't help with the learning process that so many on here, such as JH, attempt to aid. Charts to back up the statement would help in this regard

What Joe says is completely true. Let the mildies and doomsayers have their moment as it is clear from the Strat thread and the Met Office updates (something certain posters cling to when attempting to challenge those calling for a pattern change to colder conditons) that the third week of january onwards is brimming with potential. Perhaps CreweCold will be at least half right as a cold end to january moves into february

Completely agree. Both times there were people stating that those months had a feel of pre 08 winters, often alluding to a return to IB's MW. There was complete despondency last year and the year before in the MT around the Christmas period. Exactly one month and three months later, almost to the date last year, I had 10 inches (January) and 30 inches of level snow on the ground (March).

Again though, it's not actually mild is it? I'd imagine temperatures would remain below average? Or am I misreading the charts?

The GFS has been dismissed by NOAA - it is simply too flat (see Nick Sussex's post). Still going to keep banging the GFS drum?

Im not saying he shouldn't stick to his theories however people who believe the moon landing was faked and that Elvis isn't dead often stick to theirs, doesnt mean they are not a) completely wrong, b) completely mad, c) rather annoying, d) using such nonsense in the face of evidence suggesting otherwise to annoy.

I think people forget that the second time ian brown signed up to this site it was under a pseudonym with the initials TMW (the even larger teapot) before people recognised it was him. He often gets away with his comments in the MOD thread as people defend his right to present his interpretation of the models, however I think the way he signed up to the site the second time suggests some sort of bias to his old theories or motive to annoy.

You're either attempting to annoy people with your constant pessimism or you love cold but have a severe case of negativity bias. Either way I'm sure many people would appreciate you backing up your thoughts with charts or at least presenting a more realistic and balanced (not pessimistic - many people on here seem to confuse the two) view of what is actually being shown. Today you are taking the Met's word as gospel yet yesterday you were inclined towards Gibby's assessment and ignored Ian F saying the 'cold snap' may develop into something more sustained. At least many of the coldies on here, even the hopelessly optimistic, do acknowledge when mild is the most likely option or at least on the table.

I think you need to take a look at the updates in the strat thread from today. Do you think Chino's rather upbeat from this morning is entirely baseless?

John, I think you often try to provide rational, educated answers or responses to irrational, emotion-led statements. Admirable but must leave you banging your head against the wall.

Ah, Mr Roller coaster. . Certainly lives up to his name. Sheer Elation to crushing despair from one run to the next.

I have noticed some very speculative and OTT reactions towards this (relatively) short period of Atlantic dominated weather from some established members, including a number who are suggesting it marks a transition into Winters more reminiscent of the the 90's/early 2000's and away from the colder winters of the last five years. Thank god we have sensible posters like John Holmes advising people to calm down as it is only October. Predicting a month ahead is incredibly difficult, predicting a climatic shift is ludicrous.