Derbyshire Snow

The very end of the run shows some dramatic promise however(a winter storm) but that really is in deep FI Jet stream south of us at last, just

I know its FI but there are some heights developing in the Greenland, Canada area, and we are looking for trends towards cold, and not exact predictions of snow, frosts etc, and thats the time scale we are looking at . Apart from some pm air there will be no sustained cold for at least 10days. A SSW is the fastest way to a freeze now and thats not instantaneous, and even if we are lucky enough to have one of these and the jurys out on that one, there is still no guarantee of severe weather. The interesting area of the run on its way, what sort of ridge will this run show out of US Updated: jetstream wins again. Not as good a run as the 12z personally.

Evening, One positive before the run gets in to the more interesting stage. This is the jet stream through the US tomorrow. Note the split . This might be only temporary but it would give the Atlantic energy a slow down and maybe allow heights or a stronger ridge to occur which of course could lead to developments taking place near our shores. We need to watch after midrun to see if heights do develop. Previous runs have shown a ridge but never strong enough to keep the jet stream at bay. Lets see. Lots to overcome but lets start on a positive note the interesting time might be about t240

Morning, Quick look at models and very uninspiring for sustained cold over the next 2 weeks from any source apart from temporary cold blasts from the north west that are unlikely to give snow south of Scotland. Teleconnections not brilliant, SSW needed to dramatically alter this winter. Looking to see if any improvements this evening. Bye

the Atlantic is in turmoil at the end of the run. Lows everywhere and only one high and guess where that is but to add a touch of positivity deep in FI a split is about to develop in the jet stream over US, may be jet stream might push south. But it is all in la la land

energy if its possible is even stronger leaving the US at t252, thats not good at all. Good thing its only one run and a bad one

needs a lorry load of salt on that slug

Interesting but i think jet stream just too strong. Lets see end of this run. Arctic high is good if it can find a gap to head south

Its very difficult to see how this huge high is going to be moved with the present teleconnections. It will eventually. To be honest i am looking for glimmers of hope to shift it but its not easy.We are just not getting a break in the jet stream to allow a true northerly plunge enought to displace that high. PV set in concrete

No change so far this evenings run. Zonality as expected as strong as ever. i compare the present synoptics to a boxing match. In one corner we have the favourite a strong El Nino with a positive NAO- in the other corner the hopeful contender a SSW- who will win.

Evening all. My slight optimism last night of a stronger mid atlantic ridge forming late january doesnt look as promising now. We have several hurdles to overcome, generally linked NAO is persistent positive resulting in Azores high strong and occasionally pushing in to Europe. AO is generally positive, some models trending towards negativity in 7 days or so, that could be a help. Polar Jet Stream extremely strong this winter but at least the flow is now meridional and some parts of the North should have some wintriness No real positive indication of a SSW but that can happen very quickly , polar vortex obviously very strong and keeps wanting to return to its default position around Greenland this year. Siberian High virtually out of the equation because of the strong jet stream not allowing one to push west. On the face of all that, the chances of sustained cold is looking very poor. We are however only at January 25th and we can have severe winter weather during the next 7 weeks, and on the basis of that, we are only half way through the worst of winter. In 2 or 3 weeks if we get the luck the UK could be in the freezer. Looking forward to the run this evening. Synoptics are interesting, developments can take place any time. Personally i would rather have the atlantic like this than a whopping great high over the UK for weeks on end just meandering around and eating up the rest of Winter.

This is tomorrows jet stream forecast over US. Whats happened to it!!! This is the result i think of what the GFS shows mid term with the heights moving south over Canada and West Greenland. If only the jet stream did not kick back in again, there is a chance those heights might drop in to the Atlantic and produce a stronger ridge. This would obviously have a knock on affect as the PV would have to be pushed east and then who knows. Clutching at straws but i believe it is another scenario

That high pressure over Canada originating further north has really tried to link up to the Atlantic high but not quite making it. However we do have an almost full on meridional flow, and would expect heaps of snow on Northen hills, especially in Scotland. I would say the run shown some promise but no real signs of sustained cold. My hope at the moment would be keep an eye on the heights west of Greenland and Canada to see if future runs bring these in to play

It looks like being frigid in North East America. The GFS op run looks as though its showing an arctic high pushing down in the wake of the bad storms over there. Just a possibility it might put some sort of blocking in North Atlantic

Hi again My take on the run so far. Continuing zonal but meridional at times with some incursions of cold. So much of that cold is trapped up north, if only we could tap in to that. If the flow could become even more meridional it may just allow a stronger block to develop in the atlantic. Unfortunately up to t177 only temporary ridging is showing. The persistent Azores high is a major player as well. Our polar jet stream is less strong i am noticing mid run. Low pressure leaving US not as deep.Might be interesting end of run. We will see.

my very last downloaded sat image at 8.30pm of the us snowstorm saying goodbye to US. I thought it would be ok to just slip this one in before the evenings comments on the latest model run, hoping for a good one

Image downloaded 8.30pm from my sat system as the snowstorm departs US

Exactly, upstream is where the changes will take place first. The jet stream this winter has a lot to answer for... low pressure after low pressure on our shore bringing disruption and flooding. Whether the ENSO is partly responsible i am not so certain although it does affect weather patterns around the world. Certainly the models are showing some coldish interludes but nothing major. The runs in a few days may provide some interest for cold lovers, we will see.

ECM charts very similar to GFS, will be on later to comment on this evenings run I thought this might interest some, spectacular image downloaded at 6.30pm off my sat dish of the snowstorm leaving US. Its a pity it will all be rain when it gets over here.

While that jetstream is so strong, a PV weakening or slipping east will only be temporary, although welcome. The jetstream is the overriding problem. A proper SSW is required to break the flow and allow heights to the North and particularly Greenland. While the jetstream is so strong , any heights over Greenland will be shortlived. Unfortunately that stream runs right through the US. At this stage of Winter,the stratosphere is our hope now and time is ticking, but with a strong SSW within 7 to 10 days winter might be back.

Morning all although its quiet in here, but I think I know why. Jet stream in charge still, some cold zonal at times with snow on Scotland Hills, very windy in many areas Latest image downloaded 10.30AM off my sat dish of the US Snowstorm, cold front very visible. Jet stream is strong across the US again , you can see developing troughs in west of States. This doesn't augur well for the North Atlantic unless we can get heights to develop to break this jet stream . Interesting end to this run but well in to FI

Exactly as i see it. Unfortunately looking east and relying on a Scandinavian/ Siberian high stretching west may be a lost cause this year. I believe sustained cold of any sort will have to start from these polar maritime incursions and if the teleconnections are good causing a jet stream break then just maybe we can get a trough to swing down in to Europe with heights developing over Greenland

Once again in FI the jet stream is winning out but i believe the trend is for some sort of change showing in a week or two. At least we are now getting polar maritime incursions and that mass of cold air to the north is slowly slipping south at times. PV is still very reluctant to move far though but cold zonal is better than mild zonal. Its a start

Interesting split in the jetstream over the US behind the snowstorms, will this be enough to allow heights to develop over the west and north atalantic. Certainly encouraging heights to develop over Greenland on this run. is this a chink of light

What to make of outputs so far today Low pressure still dominant across Greenland locking in the cold air across high latitudes, jet stream showing no sign of easing. To save this winter we need a SSW event to split the PV and allow this cold air to filter in to mid latitudes i.e UK and Northern Europe. There are signs of minor stratospheric warming in early February which hopefully will displace the PV east or smash it in two. The other large factor is the huge Bartlett high but if we can get a SSW there is a possibility that these heights could be pushed out of the way very quickly with a trough from the North Some interest for the far north of Britain with occasional incursions of polar maritime air. Wintry showers particularly on the hills... probably feeling quite raw in those winds as well. 8.30pm downloaded image off my satellite showing US blizzard