Derbyshire Snow

Hi TEITS, I am mainly a watcher but i thought i would involve myself a little. Your comments over the years are great to encourage the cold lovers, keep it going. Weather makes a fool of us all. I do feel as though February this year is our time for severe weather PS these chart are a great improvement

If this occurs be special . Some adjustments still required but starting to fit in to place now for proper cold. WE still need the heights better over Greenland but a much improved position to work from.

I am liking this run at the moment... much better heights over Greenland. jet stream weakening ..low trying to push west of greenland .. interesting where this leads to on this run Our European high being pushed away and allowing better heights up north

Looking at the models i would still rather see substantial heights to develop over Greenland to deflect the jet stream further south or to send some energy out of North America to west of Greenland. This morning early model runs still show a succession of depressions being forced over our European High ( which i believe can only sink south east eventually) and stopping any heights really developing over Scandinavia. If we can get these heights and halt the flow of depressions there must be a good chance of a Siberian/Scandinavian developing better and extending west and linking to the heights over Greenland region. If that did occur what a February we would have. The flow of atlantic would then be deflected to the south, much better for us. Something on the lines of this image off last nights GFS run,almost cutting off North Atlantic attack , These are my take on synoptics to bring on substantial and long lasting cold. Todays outputs should be interesting to see how models behave after this moderate effort of a cold snap we have had. 3 degrees this morning, no overnight frost here, and our 1 inch of snow all gone

interesting theories tonight . It should be a muddling week of synoptics and then lets hope we get some positive cold agreement in about a weeks time. The interest in this cold spell has now waned , just a few nice frosts.

if that high pressure would weaken in Europe and allow the energy( lows) in the atlantic to push south

thats what i have been trying to explain this evening. that is the perfect chart. High pressure over Greenland > Low pressure in to central Europe and atlantic jet cut off. That must have been severe cold

Hi Nick, What i am finding a problem with is i cant see in the near future how a scandi high will develop unless something extends from Siberia. The high over Europe will struggle to reposition itself over Scandinavia unless we can get these depressions to be cut off, heights needed to develop from Greenland to push them south or cut them off so that one tracks west Greenland instead. I do agree though, synoptics not easy for that as well. We have such a poor area to get the ideal synoptics , but makes model; watching not boring

this chart is what i mean... superb!!

What i was trying to convey. we need heights to build over Greenland and push the jet stream further south, sending depressions tracking further south. Hopefully the Greenland high would link up to a then building Scandi high and we would gradually get to be on the north side of the jet stream, giving us lots of snow prospects on east and north easterlies.. Heights to the north , lows to our south, and if one of those lows could track in to Europe . Decades ago this often occurred. This stubborn European high is one of the obstacles, and thats what i mean by a reset. But its my thought on the way forward.

absolutely. I dont often post but i have had 40 years of looking at synoptics and just enjoy lurking at what others come up tih. I tend to use some of my previous experience of charts when i comment. Great to see the snow( for some) this week although its been hard work. We really need better synoptics to produce the goods, but we are heading to historically the best time for it. I just have the feeling it will be our turn this year. I will keep looking for those Greenland heights building and not so much to Scandinavia yet. Although i do agree it will have to link up to the Scandinavian/ Siberian high to produce a sustained bitter cold spell.

Agreed I believe thats where our next blast of cold needs the greenland high to develop.. Jet stream needs to push south or even better cut off more runs needed:-)

that is a great set up for a long cold spell. Can we get there, long way to go

my thinking was that we need some heights to develop over Greenland and to the north and then depressions would therefore gradually have to move on a more southerly track, eventually far enough south to bring in north easterlies and easterlies. I think theres a much better chance of cold reaching our shores than trying to get this easterly through just a Scandinavian high developing. This high pressure over GReenland would then hopefully encourage a SCandinavian high to develop and then give a real true potent blast. Interesting GFS developing but those heights still needed over Greenland to give encouragement to the European high. Depressions are trying to track further south

My take on the synoptics for what its worth .We really need this stubborn high to retreat east over Europe ( which is doing no favours now just delaying this eventual mild spell) to allow the depressions in the atlantic to move right through and reset our area of the world, possibly then allow a north and eventually north easterly to develop. While thats there i believe we will struggle to get any real cold as its unlikely to move north. There are little heights over SCandinavia so depressions will keep trying to push north of us. I think reset needed.

It was a surprise to have a bit of snow this evening , but any moderate r precipitation has now finished in this area, just a few lighter flurries to come. still looks good around Barnsley and Rotherham for an hour or so

i am situated Hady, near chesterfield. snowing better now and settling . I still think this incoming precipitation will break up to some degree but hope to get a cm or two. Looking good for a couple of hours though

It now looks like our turn for some moderate snow ,,( fingers and toes crossed now) amazingly the very eastern edge of snow almost reached the humber Chez..shake the dust off your ruler

I am getting more confident that the main and last batch of snow tracking down from the northwest will hit our area and most of Derbyshire head on ,as the movement is definitely south east, not south. The question is it will stay strong, decay or dare i say intensify

Not much happening here, we are too far west.. just very very light snow. Rotherham and Barnsley looks the area to be rather than Chesterfield with this first batch. Our snow we hope to get is now heading south east .out of cumbria. Unfortunately it is liable to turn south and we could be too far east for that one. still very light snow here temp 1.5 dew point - 2.0

i think if the heavier material over Yorkshire would just shift more south(its still shifting just to our east ), we should get a direct hit. I hope the precip that you refer to over the lakes intensifies because that looks very interesting for us. WE have a very light covering on cars here

Latest radar show that any heavier precipitation will be east of Chesterfield. Quite a shift in position from this mornings predictions. Some areas there may have an unexpected covering . For awhile we were in the firing line but that long run of precipitation has shifted again eastwards although we now have steady very light snow, settled

Here in Chesterfield amazingly i think we are too far west to get the best of this fragmented band of precipitation which is still on a sse track , Could do with it heading south before it dies out

the whole mass of precipitation seems to be slowly breaking up although its still heading SSE through the spine of England towards Derbyshire. I hate to say it but not sure if this will amount to anything in this area as most of it is dispersing after exiting the dales and pennine areas. However we do have some snow grains falling here. but if it holds up we should get a light covering

a few very light snow grains in Chesterfield Temp 1.7 Dew Point -3.5