captaincroc
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Posts posted by captaincroc
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We're going to go through a gap in the precipitation. It's all swung N-S too soon! Couldn't make it up! Lol
I know!!!! Hahah. As soon as I saw that I went bed! Got a dusting in Nantwich though.
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Haha sure is! Just hoping we can get a good shower to lay a covering down. I don't ask for much!
Looking at the radar the band of showers still look strong with only about 30 mins until impact I reckon. Will be nice to have a good dusting at least!
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Looks like the showers are on their way to South Cheshire, everything is frozen solid here so hopefully every flake will stick...
Crewe Cold, this is like the old days eh?
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Aye, I can imagine Crewe. It's been like that all day here, just showers feeding through Manchester all day, although winds later on tonight are set to shift from this currently Westerley feed, so god knows how long it will last, maybe that's why the Euro4 was picking up on a more Cheshire Gap Streamer later on?
I am hoping the winds do take a slightly more NW feed sooner rather than later. If so then we could be in for some fun tonight, if not then Frost it is.....
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The games begin on Saturday
Snow for the north and south if the GFS is correct.
This chart for me sums up why we shouldn't look too far ahead in regards to snow and where it is forecast. A day or so ago the wind wasn't as 'Northwesterly' so the Cheshire Gap posse had no snow forecast (Trust me, I have been watching these charts!
) and now a slight change in wind direction has caused hours of potential showers coming down the gap..... in less than 48 hours away.Hold on to your hats people, it's nearly play time.
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We had snow for hours in Nantwich but minimal stuck....so went for a Snow Hunt up Mow Cop!
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Although I haven't posted on this thread for a long time I have been following the model output and I feel the quest for cold/snow is allowing some to miss the bigger picture. I also read a comment saying this is typical November output!!
Let me assure you todays ECM especially at +240 is far from the norm for November and is far more likely in late winter/early spring. If the ECM went out further than +240 you can be sure a very cold NE,ly would set in.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recmnh2401.gif
If you look back at previous significant cold spells you can see the building blocks being put in place some distance away from when the cold actually arrived. I feel the same is happening now with the output and it may take until the last week of November to arrive.
Very exciting times ahead!
Exactly! Yes, if we look out the window it is 'normal' November weather (Wet n Windy), but the charts are far from that. The Black holes on the anomaly charts back that up! (Off the scale/chart!)
Exciting times for sure.
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I would SO prefer this 'mild'....
...than this mild...
The key word is potential. There is blocking all over the place, it wouldn't take much of a shift for us to be in a totally different airmass.
Exciting times.
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Exactly! If we were aware of the OPI last October we would know that a mild winter was likely.
Yes, I remember watching many vids on GavsWeatherVideo site and seeing such reds. No disrespect to Gavin obviously, he was just commenting on the models but they couldn't have been further from the truth. So not really fussed in them, especially as the accuracy seems so high for the OPI.
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I think most long term models are generally preset to a more mobile, traditional pattern and any notable differences will be tempered by its signals.
I'm sure the OPI and SAI will override some signals; and the general correlation is strong enough to suggest that.
I remember last year a lot of the long term signals were going for a blocked winter. I remember many a deep red anomaly to the north of us....and we know how last winter turned out.
So fingers crossed here....
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The latest monthly outlook from the Met. is the usual "we don't have a clue, just look out the window " type of stuff.
I am a big supporter of the Met O as they have a VERY tough job to do, everything is with all the pressure for the public/media on top. But I really question the need for the monthly outlook, it really is kinda pointless in every way. Yes, the odd time it may be right, but we hardly knew what was going to happen next week (Showers/no showers etc) let alone a month. Plus they are so vague, again defies the point of having them. They are just opening themselves up for Joe Public reading it and saying, "Well they got it wrong again!" as soon as the forecast is amended. As most wont take into account that it is a general forecast so to speak.
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Content not available C. Must be friends only.
Dammit. Will do screen grabs later and post them on here, as have to shoot off now. Cheers for letting me know.
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Post just disappeared. Weird! haha
Anyways, I just posted that from friends have posted some videos of their snow in Vivod 300m hill near Llangollen. The snow is on average 1m deep.
Here is the video after the first day... ( just notice their fence....)
http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=148014462041841&set=vb.100004998630179&type=2&theater
Then today, the fence is nearly gone and its over 1m high normally...
http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=148843551958932&set=vb.100004998630179&type=2&theater
Scottish Power have said they have seen nothing like it in the area before. Even Llangollen itself is shut off as such, people panic buying etc...
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Managed to get to Somerset, there was absolutely no snow betweeen Knutsford and Sandbach on the M6 and then all hell was let loose!!
Snow in Bacup this morning was unbelievable, well I should say that the wind was. Pictures following.
Coming back on Monday which could be fun!!
Eh?! Don't rub it in! We could have told you that!!!
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Just found through just zooming in on Google Maps! haha nearly 300m ASL
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Still snowing in Mold in N E Wales. Up to 47cm now on level ground, well, the garden table anyway. Very wierd and sure I won't see it again in my lifetime.
Well if you have half a metre then 1 metre for a little village up in the hills sounds pretty plausible i suppose.
P.s Been out all day, can anyone help with that belt of snow to the east, is it suppose to move across to us. Going by its trajectory it looks like it could but is i forecast to or is it meant to die out?
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Had my friends on the phone from Vivod hill near Lllangollen, they are really panicking as there is a level meter in snow and 9ft snow drifts. They have no power, nothing, so when they send me pics i will send them over. She said that she can't see her fence anymore and that is 1m high, she seems pretty scared. I've been trying to find how high that hill is but can't find it. I doubt she is lying as it is a very high hill in north east Wales where it didnt stop for two days.
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Nothing, I'll go take a pic
OOooooh, the cars have started to go the tiniest bit white! hahaha. It been snowing for hours but nothing is settling properly, maybe it's starting now! hahah
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Just looking at the 18Z NAE for 6am in the morning and the Met Office Amber Warning, a striking similarity wouldn't you say?
It does look good from that perspective but if you compare the rainfall tallys....
Now..
6am.....
That's a lot less than what we have now, and if now is only producing wet, not-sticking snow for the majority then 6am doesnt hold out much hope. The only glimmer of hope is if the temps can drop to below 0c . Then we might be ok with whats falling....
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Ive been looking at Raintoday most of the evening but just checked the MetO radar and it shows the disappearance of any proper heavy snowfall in the last few hours. Also checked the NAE and the amount of precipitation is only going to go down. Not to put a damper on things but I can't see where the intensification is coming from?
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The wind has suddenly changed direction in the past 10 mins? Weird.
...by that I mean the snow is blowing a different way past the lamp post.
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Cheers Backtrack! Really appreciate it.
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Yeah man, give me a sec to draw up a couple radar shots for you.
Cheers buddy
P.s the biggest issue is the temps, if the temps were just that few degrees lower (hence why the altitude is helping other folk) then we would have a LOT as lots fell last night and some this evening. But everything that has fallen has literally melted, even now. It is getting lower though as slush is starting to appear on tops of cars, just that bit more please universe! haha
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The back build is REALLY interesting me, look at how much energy is being injected as it's crossing Wales, that could turn out to be the holy grain of this whole event.
Hey mate
Can you possibly explain/show what you are on about please? Sounds interesting.
) and now a slight change in wind direction has caused hours of potential showers coming down the gap..... in less than 48 hours away.
North West England - Weather chat
in Regional
Posted
Is that a Polar Low I see heading south??!?!?! It has the 'hook'.