Blake

Chinese at D10... interesting. Wonder if as the low edges E/SE we may get blocking to the west in behind linking up with GL and the low stalling and sinking S/SE coming up against HP to east... FI of course but something to tease us.

FI only... sorry... IF only... I was scrolling through thinking it was early Feb and got a little excited. That depicts perfection for snow lovers. Uppers -8 to -12 UK wide too. One day we'll get our rewards. You know we could just all move abroad rather than moan!

If it isn't, I shall quote you on this and perhaps add it to my signature Heading SE...cold NW/N'erly potentially.

But he could be a model... Anyway... this has put me off my breakfast http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016011900/gfsnh-0-300.png?0?0 That could be difficult to budge if it verifies.

I didn't say it was a 24hr accumulation chart, but the accumulations for "about" 24 hour's worth,... well especially SE. As you hover over timeframes, 1-2mm per hour from around T+60 to T+94 (34 hours in fact), IF, and only if it falls as just snow, and the 1mm precip = 1cm snow... more likely to be half that amount, but still a nice dumping. Precip comes in from West, stalls and sinks S/SE almost a day and a half after it begins. No doubt it'll change by then, hopefully for the better!

It's the total accumulations from start of snow on Monday until date and time on chart, covering about 24 hours.

Clearly no point posting this really with the next 3 or 4 days unclear but this would be nice... -6 to -10s pushing back over the UK right at the end of the 12z with possible Thames streamer? Eastern areas and home counties would be most favoured.

12z 18z HP building over Siberia...?

Minor positive changes I see in the 18z... 12z 18z Heights impoving over GL and weakening to our S and SE. Seems to be less energy out west. 540dam a good 400m further south. If similar improvements occur on the 0z, what we may see on the 18z could end up another 400m further south yet again. Unlikely but not impossible? I wonder if it would be possible for the low out west to end up sinking towards the med forcing HP north over Scandi? Straw clutching at it's finest. Exciting though.

ECM 12z Monday for next Thurs Tues for next Thurs Yesterday for next Thurs Today for next Thurs Really no point in looking beyond the weekend to what is happening next week. It'll be at least Saturday evening when we have clear indication of what the trend for next week really is.

T+186 12z 18z More precip nearby, Europe colder in general, blocking not as strong.

It's 35/1 but we'll forgive him for his input is valuable to many Minor change in GFS 18z with precip marginally further east on Monday with frontal snow edging a bit further inland.

Will only know if it's been poor of late come T+0! Watching GFS roll out now...

Thames streamer from the GEM anyone? Could be nice for some of the home counties, myself included!

I for one am feeling slightly underwhelmed by this morning's runs, to me they don't show as much promise as a couple of days ago. So I have been looking through the GFS Ens and it took until P20 to find some real eye candy... If only... and that low will just sink further south and drag in -12s or better and stall for a couple more days. It's a shame it's 2 weeks out but as we know, last week we saw no signs of change until final third of Jan and now we're seeing something a little more promising. Only a matter of time until we hit the jackpot. Happy cold hunting all!

Shame there is no 264 but as it sinks further south it should bring in colder air from NE. Over all a fairly good picture for cold and perhaps snow. LP 400 miles further south would be lovely and maybe 200 further east.

Here we go! Ok over a week away but something to keep us talking!...and dreaming. This could edge further SE and stall potentially...

Down she goes...watch those -8 or better uppers come in from the east on the 216 and 240...

OR the GFS is hinting at blocking to our north with the Low off Greenland undercutting a few days later than the Euro...? Would prefer that myself, looks to me that from 9th onwards we get the cold and snow from the 12z so far...

Did just message PM but seems to have gone offline... a new thread before the 12z perhaps if any mods reading as we anticipate the change to cooler conditions in a week or so.

Even the JMA picking something up now. Yesterday's 12z for next Sunday... Today's 12z for next Sunday... Plenty of rain but differences a plenty over Scandi...

Hi all, been browsing past few weeks, but finally starting to see trends changing to something a bit more seasonal. Nice run in FI in P12 on the ensembles. HP building over Scandi with jet to the south, would expect the low off south of Greenland to slide south of the UK between HP to NE and SW towards the Mediterranean. Cold beginning to flow from the East, -8's not far away, thickness could be improved. Let battle commence!

Probably need 3/4 days from when the Scandi forms for the colder air to reach us. If the Scandi is still showing come T240 on this run, should see -6/-8 uppers moving in! EDIT: It's more of an Eastern Europe high, but signs of a change, something to keep an eye on here, couple of tweak in the next couple of days and we could be getting excited again!

What's the GFS up to now? In the semi-reliable too... 0h run 6h run All eyes on the East...

18th Jan 2013 started at 8.05am where I was by Guildford Cathedral and 5 inches fell and covered the ground for 10 days with two lots of 1-2 inch top ups. I was on crutches at the time following a leg operation! Hoping for a streamer tonight as winds are more Easterly. Won't be like Feb 2009 however.