Blake

I posted on my forum last night the possibility of this happening... any thoughts on it at all? Low pressure (red circle) to the west to head north east with high pressure breaking off from the Altantic high (black circle) following behind and building again over Scandinavia with low pressure sinking south into Southern Europe. It would probably take a good 4-5 days from this to get into place so at best I would predict a chance of colder conditions around the 25th January onwards. I'm no expert but is this something that could happen to bring us that easterly we're looking for?

GEM and JMA also keen on the idea of the LP splitting and sinking south but a little earlier, the latter with a larger part of the LP sinking south than the other models. GEM JMA

ECM and GFS in unison for next weekend/Monday splitting the low and sending it S/SE? ECM GFS Could get a short cold snap with some gentle SE/E'erly? Potential for any wintriness anyone? Hopefully the HP can re-establish itself to the north eventually!

I wrote a post on my forum earlier following the GFS developments over the last few days and today's output for the next few days suggesting we need the high with the kink over SW Norway to send/split the LP south to be in with a shout of some cold/snow. I then looked at the ECM and it appears to show exactly that! So I wrote another post about that. Hopefully the other models pick up the low splitting/dropping south too. Interesting couple of days to come!

Just wondering if you are able to add a "next" and "prev" button in the GFS chart archive to save selecting a date etc each time? Maybe even a + and - "x" days button too?

Hopefully not posting this in the wrong thread, but just so people can keep an eye on it and how things develop over the coming few days, I found this relating to what Ian mentioned regarding 1953. With the potential gusts and sea level rises there is definitely concern over safety to residents and structures in low lying coastal regions. This on 30th Jan... ...to this on 31st Jan.... ...and this on the 1st Feb. Something for sure to keep an eye on!

Just wondering if we could have a new thread for the weekend? It's getting a bit tired now and off topic at times! Speaking of off topic slightly... If I may add, I think there was more confidence in FI this time round because there was a general agreement from most models of a similar set up? We've seen before how it looks cool/cold with no snow at T-120 to several inches of snow at T0 so let's wait until at least Monday before write anything off. I distinctly remember SM telling us to bin anything but the ECM a couple of weeks ago because they didn't show what many of us wanted to see and as soon as the ECM went the other way at about T-120 SM went quiet for a few days which goes to show that even the most experienced, respected and knowledgeable amongst use can find themselves with egg on their face. I myself do get a little excited when I see the "S" word, but rarely over the 6 years of browsing here does it coming to fruit in the places or days models show at T-144 or beyond. It's normally looks to miss us marginally or be less snowfest looking at T-144 when it ends up striking us fully or missing us completely. Perhaps we should be more interested at runs hinting at a near miss 7+ days out because there tends to be a good 500 mile shift come T0. It would be much better if we took a leaf out of Gibby's book to say what we see rather than saying "this model will show this later" or "this model will play catch up with this one in a couple of days because of its previous form". It would help a lot of those learning to understand what charts are showing and how things change from one run to another. Perhaps, Gibby (or SS), if you wouldn't mind, post the chart for each model and run you're analysing. It for one would help me and perhaps others too? No intent to rattle cages or get anyone's back up here I spend a good 2 hours a day during the winter season, it's like a second home, but I'm not going to start paying rent Have a good weekend, folks!

This may be in the wrong place, but this was GFS output for 18th Jan 2013 144 hours out and 24 hours out. Could someone more able than myself dissect these two charts to explain what each showed at the time. Where is the wind coming from in each and to what areas? Is the first showing a westerly flow for western areas and more of a NE'erly for eastern parts with showers for the east and in the second pretty much Southerly/SE'erly winds UK and a line of precipitation through Ireland down through the Bay of Biscay heading from W to E? If I am on the right tracks, I am starting to understand a little more, if not, I need to go back and do some more research. But if we take a look at the GFS from 20th for 26th (Today) and yesterday for today, could someone post these images and do the same for me? Thanks in advance (p.s. if this is in the wrong place, move it and drop me a PM to where it has been moved to?)

GEM & NAVGEM similar for next weekend, if I am reading this correct, bring the low further South than UKMO, ECM & GFS anticipate. Strong cold(?) winds from the NW/W. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2013112300/gem-0-198.png http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2013112300/navgem-0-180.png Looking into the start of December, would this be likely to bring in wintry showers, maybe something more substantial across the north and west pushing further south perhaps as far as the M4 corridor? Dam lines ranging from mid 530's near south coast down to 512 at the north of Scotland. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2013112300/gem-0-240.png Generally just a browser here, still learning but like many on here, a cold fan in search of snow If I'm wrong, would appreciate some indication as to where I may have gone wrong P.S. html didn't work. Oops.

Raintoday radar in last 4 x 15 min updates showing precip starting to budge south. This should fall in line with what the NAE is showing in regards to wintriness in the home counties tomorrow.

I would go with this too, I think the SSW was about a 6 week period or so. On that basis, today is 7th Feb or thereabouts. Would it have been colder had there not have been a SSW?

15th I believe. Sister's 8th birthday, woke up to an inch of snow when I lived back in Bournemouth. Was just after Easter weekend and during Easter hols? As for this weekend, didn't expect a few days ago that there would be borderline chance of snow here in Guildford, if these southward corrections continue we could end up a coupe of inches, just hope ground is dry enough for snow lovers here. Charts posted in last few hours show risk from as early as Sat morning here now.

It wasn't the amounts or locations as such as I am more than aware that it means little when in FI but moreso the return of cold again with ppn over parts of the UK as mentioned by a few that suggests this may be one of many more chances to see the white stuff before winter leaves us. I think winter is playing catch up after the SSW. Are spring months usually cooler when SSW takes place around the turn of the year?

This was the chart from the link I posted that I wished to share. Less cold blip after Tues looks to make way for more cold to filter in from north/west with snow over western areas (some central) next weekend which backs up some if what has been discussed the last couple of days regarding the 6-15 day forecasts, moreso 168-240hrs.

Link did not have malware FYI. For those who didn't see the link, it is http://www.weatherweb.net but you will just have to find the snow depth chart yourself. As I mentioned in that deleted post, the snow depths from 15-17th fall in line with suggestions of return tocold after milder air later this week. Depths up to 8 inches near cotswolds and south and west mids.

I would imagine from this time next week. Tuesday would be the last "mild" day of this less cold period.

First post! Been reading as a non-member for several years now and what baffles me is how many of the "more experienced" folk are telling us not to look beyond T120 days as things can change and often leave us disappointed yet many of those people contradict themselves by posting charts and predictions based on T168 to T336 models. And then there are those making predictions based on ifs and buts. If you are commenting on a T120 and saying "if the LP moves this way and this happens, then we could end up with this....". In my eyes, if the GFS, GEM, ECM, UKMO etc aren't showing this in the T144 or T168 then people need to stop hopecasting or dismissing what the future may hold. As someone posted, "say what you see". Many of us want the snow and cold but there seems to be a little too much competition between posters to undermime the professionals and computers so they can boost their ego and say "what do they know, eh?". I don't know an awful lot about the weather, but keen to learn! Oh. And regarding Saturday, I fear ground temperatures and the rain on Friday (or before it turns to snow on Sat) may lower the chances of any potential snow on the back edge from settling or worth getting excited about.