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stratty

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    Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by stratty

    20 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    If the ECM ensembles are wrong, this will be a bigger fail than "That ECM" in Dec 2012. But on the other hand, we need several hands on which to count all of the GFS fails from over the years. 

    I'd also like an explanation as to how the GEFS had the ECM pattern for days and has now ditched it! Is it something to do with the GFS tending to overblow lows in the D5-D8 period? Or is the ECM again showing its weakness for overdoing Scandi heights between D5 and D8, something which has crept into the model in the past couple of years?

    Not sure I've ever seen such a big D9 difference on the mean charts. ECM has a 1036mb mean Scandi high (probably near 1040mb) - GEFS, well, it's more like April than February

    . EDM1-216.GIF?16-12  gens-21-1-216.png

    Nightmare

    If you turn the gfs one upside down its actually very similar to the ecm?

     

    All down to interpretation!?

    Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, mpkio2 said:

     

    Hello all once again!!! :)

    Well, it sure has been a roller-coaster of an experience looking at the model's struggle with the upcoming blocking in the Arctic, eh? Talk about causing some drama!!!! :wallbash::diablo:

    I haven't been really active on here because, as I stated above in my earlier posts from a week ago, I expected the models to "flip-flop" around with the upcoming pattern and descending AO - it happens every time when a pattern like this wants to set up, with inter-runs saying "mild" :aggressive: one run and "cold" :cold: the next...or even, as we#ve seen over the past few days, the models lock onto a pattern, only to latch on to a new one a few runs later!

    As I said above, I was cautious about the "amplified" colder runs, because of how the models struggle with these set-ups. And sure enough, the models were off from what they were predicting (Post Day 5 period onwards)(Though correct with blocking in Arctic around Greenland!):

    12z GFS 10/11 T216:
    gfsnh-0-216_wdt9.png

    12z ECM 10/11 T216:
    ECH1-0_oid0.GIF

    And what actually transpired....

    12z ECM 19/11 T0:
    ECH1-0_hza4.GIF

    :nonono:

    The models couldn't predict the west -NAO setting up instead the EAST -NAO that all of us coldies want, and thus, a new pattern has occurred to take place. It's these kinds of details and teleconnection and atmospheric changes that are currently taking place causing the models to struggle, with wild model violaty output all over the shot.

    I'm encouraged by the recent 12z ECM and its evolution to a colder outlook for the UK...

    12z ECM 19/11 T120:
    ECH1-120_htd4.GIF

    Very nice!!! :)

    But how much faith can we put into one run? :cc_confused:

    A new trend has to follow before I can believe anything that's going to show up in the coming days' runs.

    So, I'm not believing anything post t96, because pattern change can easily take place during these unpredictable and unstable model times!

    Always optimistic, but cautious too.... :D:nea:

    ~mpkio2~

     

    lol 100% accuracy by ECM on that account ;) 

    Hurricane Ophelia

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, crimsone said:

    Ex-Ophelia has had a max gust (last time I looked) at about 118 mph... compared to '87 having 115 mph.

    '87 went down to 960mb, while Ex-Ophelia has recorded 959mb

    Haven't seen a max mean wind for Ex-Ophelia yet, but in '87 it was 72.5mph (1dp)

    The storms are of similar strength.

    ............not sure if the '87 storm had a twister though, unlike the one spotted today in Ireland!

     

    • Like 2

    SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by stratty

    28 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

    I've seen this too a few times, once the temperatures fall to near freezing then the snow starts to stick. I remember such an occasion in the 80's when it poured with rain all day at 6C. As the evening wore on the temperatures dropped rapidly and the rain turned to snow. Come the next morning everything was covered in a good 10cm of snow and it was an ice day.

    ...........I remember a day like this too, back in the 80s. I think was in March (late in the season) and on a Sunday(???!!!) -I'd love to see an archive chart for this, as it really was raining hard all morning but then it was like someone had switched the snowmachine on and within half an hour it was a magical winter wonderland and just kept going all evening. One of those lovely snow day memories from the past that still keeps me enthused today! :)

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