Blessed Weather

Well it's Christmas Eve and I'm travelling off to my daughter's for the holiday, so could I wish everyone a very Happy Christmas! The models have kept their promise of some snow for the Alps over the Christmas period. It won't be a lot, but I'm sure some snow falling from the skies will help raise the Christmas spirits of everyone over there. 12.00 25th 18.00 25th mid-night

Hi Oakland_Dan. A very warm welcome to the Alps Snow Thread on Netweather. You will thoroughly enjoy your trip to St. Anton in February. The skiing is fantastic with lots of variety and some very challenging runs too (indeed, St. Anton has a reputation of offering more challenging pistes than many resorts in the Alps). The après ski in St. Anton is legendary so make sure you check out the Mooserwirt and Krazy Kanguruh (the fun starts at 3.00pm in the afternoon!). St. Anton is in the Arlberg district which is itself located within the wider ski area known as the Tyrol. Thanks for your link - I'll check that out when I get a moment. You might want to keep an eye on the webcams for St. Anton using the link below. A slow start to snow conditions so far, but the weather charts for this coming weekend suggest the Alps will be finally getting some decent snow to lower levels. http://www.bergfex.com/stanton-stchristoph/webcams/

Hi Carinthian - I've just picked up this story from wetter.at today. It seems a storm caused damage just down the road from you in Bad Kleinkirchheim, but it seems to have been a 'localised' event so presumably nothing of note where you are in Katschberg? (Translated using Google with my 'improvements' in brackets). Heavy Storm carried (tiles?) from the house roof A storm in the night on Monday in Carinthia Bad Kleinkirchheim tourist destination (district of Spittal) caused severe property damage. According to media reports, a house was covered and also damaged several barn roofs, uprooted numerous trees. Hurt no one was there. In the tourist and stable roofs were damaged and uprooted trees. The roof of the house was distributed by wind gusts with peaks around 100 km / h over several hundred meters. A total of 20 male volunteer firefighters marched out to remove the damage. http://www.wetter.at/wetter/oesterreich-wetter/Schwerer-Sturm-trug-Hausdach-ab/169808516

This evening's model output seems to have upgraded the snow prospects for the Alps over the Christmas period. If the charts verify it would be a wonderful Christmas present for everyone over there! Here's the 850hPa charts for Boxing Day from the ECM and GFS (P) which are very similar (although the ECM is better as the 850hPa temps are lower which may improve snowfall at lower levels): ECM GFS (P) A cold front moves into the Alps in the early hours of Christmas Day, but temps are too high at this stage for snow except on higher slopes: Precipitation at 13.00 hours 25 Dec Temps at same time However, by 19.00 hours the temps have fallen and precipitation should now be falling as snow to lower levels: Precipitation at 19.00 hours 25 Dec Temps at same time And by the early hours of Boxing Day temps have plummeted as the cold air digs in, and with freezing levels down to around 300 metres snowfall is down to resort level. Unfortunately the precipitation starts to fizzle out as Boxing Day progresses, but a very welcome transformation from green to white at lower levels. Hopefully at 4 days away the models won't back down from this one! I'll be checking the Euro4 model output as we get within range. Precipitation at 01.00 hours 26 Dec Temps at same time

Hi NK. Lower resorts such as Niederau are really suffering at the moment. But don't give up hope for conditions changing before your trip on 3rd Jan. It only takes one good fall of snow and a resort can be transformed. If you've been watching the Mod Thread you have probably noticed that good charts keep appearing (and disappearing!) so there is still time. Take a look at this evening's GFS(P) 12z run for the 28th Dec. Lovely! That would transform the Alps! Making a call on Borovets weather going forward is a tough call! The only pointers I can give you are firstly that on the 'reviews' page of the Ski Club of GB, the 2nd, 3rd and 4th posts all moan about lack of snow (but two were from last winter, so maybe unfair as that was a stinker?). http://www.skiclub.co.uk/skiclub/skiresorts/resortreviews.aspx/Borovets#.VJXLEVAN8Bg And secondly the snow record for Borovets suggest that Feb would be the best bet for a trip there: Chart from igluski.com http://www.igluski.com/bulgaria/borovets-snow-history_23499

Very comprehensive J10, thanks. Just wish the outlook could have been better for those off to the mountains this coming week!

To all those off to the Alps in the morning, have a great week! And here's a bit of hope that Christmas Day might actually bring something festive - Meteo France have said on their website today: Thursday 25, disruption should press further south as the day (progresses), bringing with it cooler air. Slightly down, temperatures should be closer to normal. The snow could return at mid mountain. Full post: http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites?articleId=19565967 GFS 12 z today gives support to their statement: Snow over the Alps?

A dreadful situation Carinthian. And with all the background signals back in the Autumn (e-QBO, SAI, etc) I don't think any of us would have predicted this. And worryingly, the official prognosis coming out of Austria, published on wetter.at yesterday, is very downbeat. They can't even see an improvement in January, with February the first “bit of winterâ€!! I struggle to see how the UK can go into the freezer if the Alps remain in a mild regime? To me it sounds like our ‘friend’ the Azores high sticks around Iberia? Here's the report, translated using Google with my ‘improvements’ in brackets: Long-term projections (forecasts) indicate ready to go back to warm weather. After the Golden October and the warmest November since measurements began, also lacks any trace of the winter in December. Months ago ZAMG (Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics) pointed out the (coming) season forecasts for the heat, they had been right. And now it's just in this key it continues: Especially in December, and certainly January will very likely (be) warmer than average, 50 and 60 percent certainty. It was not until February to be a bit of winter. So it continues trembling in the ski resort where the snow is already in short supply. The warmest autumn of all time: November was already the ninth month of this year, which was warmer than average. That it was too warm by almost 4 degrees, could best be identified by the lack of snow. Overall, the fall (Autumn) was the warmest since records began 247 years ago! For the first time no zero temperatures: In some regions of Austria there were for the first time since records began in the autumn without frost. At 39 climate stations of the ZAMG no freezing temperatures were measured, including in Linz, Innsbruck and St. Pölten. Normally already expect the first frost days in October in most of Austria. Full article in Austrian http://www.wetter.at/wetter/oesterreich-wetter/Faellt-der-Winter-heuer-aus/169324693

The records continue to tumble. Meteo France post on their website today (translated using Google - I'm sure Eightwinds can translate more accurately!): 2014 the warmest year in France since 1900? The annual average temperature in 2014 in France should exceed by more than 1.2 ° C normal (reference period 1981-2010), probably 2014 positioning at the forefront of the hottest years since 1900..... http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites?articleId=19501872

Well you couldn't write the script!! After days and days of frantic effort to get the Val D'Isere course ready for the Ladies Downhill this weekend as a result of the poor depth of natural snowfall, today's first training session had to be cancelled because there was....... TOO MUCH SNOW!!! The post from the FIS today: Val d'Isère, France – After a long wait, winter has finally turned up in the Tarentaise valley. Fifteen to twenty centimetres of snow fell overnight and didn't give the jury and the organisers any other options but to cancel the first ladies downhill training run on Thursday. “With this amount of snow, we need between six and eight hours of work to get the slope ready,†explained FIS Race Director Atle Skaardal. “We will now focus everything on a great training run tomorrow. According to the forecast, the weather should play along.†The weather has been quite unpredictable these days. Let's hope the forecast for tomorrow is reliable. Today's photo of the finish line

Never say never seaside 60; keep pushing against skiing retirement! I'm 62 and the youngster amongst my skiing mates! The other year I watched one of them bounce 200 yards down a black mogul run! His spectacles, goggles, poles and skis were scattered everywhere and it took me and several passing skiers on the piste 30 minutes to re-unite said equipment with my friend! Thankfully only pride seriously hurt!

Hi seaside 60, welcome to the thread. It's not a good start to the season in the Alps, but looking at one of the piste front webcams at Les Gets this afternoon, at least there's snow down to the bottom. Although today's +4C and rain won't be doing it much good! If you're off skiing this season and would like a weather & conditions update before you go, please put a post in here with resort and dates and I'm sure someone will respond. Les Gets piste front this afternoon

Report published by NOAA Climate.gov on 16th Dec (extracts): Reflectivity of Greenland Ice Sheet in late summer hit new low in 2014 The Arctic Report Card: Update for 2014 states that the Greenland Ice Sheet's overall 2014 summer reflectivity was the second lowest (exceeded only by 2012) since MODIS records began in the year 2000. Greenland Ice Sheet reflectivity has dropped as air temperatures in the Arctic have risen. The Arctic Report Card: Update for 2014 reads, "Data from January-July 2014 suggest that 2014 might become the warmest year in the Arctic since the beginning of the 20th century." Compared to the 1981-2010 average for surface melting, June-July-August 2014 melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet was above normal across most of the ice sheet. By August 21, 2014, surface melt surpassed the 1981-2010 average by two standard deviations. http://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/reflectivity-greenland-ice-sheet-late-summer-hit-new-low-2014

A quick mid-week update on conditions in the Alps. The active warm front noted in J10's blog last weekend is now pushing into the mountains. I'm afraid any hopes that freezing levels might not rise as much as was then forecast have turned out to be wishful thinking. Any snow on the front edge of the precipitation turns to rain over the next 24 hours as the freezing level rises to around 3,000m in the west Alps and around 2,700m further east. GFS 850hPa shows overall picture Netweather Alps Precip chart 18.00 today Euro4 for 18.00 shows snow on the leading edge A look at the Netweather Alps Temperature charts over the next 24 hours shows the rapid rise in freezing levels: At 18.00 hours today At 18.00 hours tomorrow (18th Dec) Finally, the weather summary chart for Wengen (courtesy of snowforecast.com) confirms precipitation expected to turn from snow to rain with freezing level rising above the top lift: To end on a more positive note, today's GFS output shows the -5C 850hPa isotherm back over most of the Alps this coming weekend, so at the very least snow cannons will be able to operate. The GFS also signs of another plunge of cold air for the Alps on Christmas Day - fingers crossed for those heading off for Christmas. All eyes on J10's blog this coming weekend!

Some good news from the FIS, with the green light given for the first Men's Downhill race from Val Gardena and the Super G from Alta Badia: "After a last snow control which took place this Sunday morning FIS officials have confirmed the Audi FIS Ski World Cup races scheduled in Val Gardena/Groeden (ITA) on 19th-20th December 2014 and Alta Badia (ITA) on 21st December 2014." With the poor natural snow, an incredible effort was put into getting the resort ready: "A total of 50 staff members, six snow cats and 65 snow cannons have been in use since December 10th to finish the racing profile on the Saslong course." Great photo of work going on through the night to get the finish area ready:

Some mixed messages over the last 48 hours about how Austrian ski resorts are coping with current snow conditions. The ‘good news’ article posted today: “Since last weekend many ski resorts have opened the lifts and slopes. Although the large amounts of snow are not there yet, many well-known ski resorts have opened the season: Ski Openings took place in almost all provinces at the weekend…†I’ve copied the list of resorts open, with their lower/upper depths and number of lifts open, into this chart: Full article in Austrian http://www.wetter.at/wetter/oesterreich-wetter/Skisaion-20142015-ist-eroeffnet/168955033 The ‘bad news’ article on the Sat 13 Dec reveals that in the Vorarlberg region only a few resorts managed to open (mentioning Lech and Damuels). “Only in a few places (in) Vorarlberg (were) permitted (by) the snow cover to start the ski season this weekend. In all other ski resorts Vorarlberg the plants were provisionally out of service - either too little or no snow, too warm for artificial snowmaking. Meteorologists give Vorarlberg lift operators and tourism earners no hope of rapid change: The foehn windy mountain weather holds.†Full article in Austrian http://www.wetter.at/wetter/oesterreich-wetter/Start-der-Ski-Saison-in-Vorarlberg/168767146 Footnote: Carinthian - nice to see Katschberg in 3rd place with snow depth!

Terrific photos Carinthian. Is that you stood next to the cannon? Julian's question spurred me into doing a quick search and I found an interesting but old article (2011) about Ischgl spending Euro1m on snow cannons: The Austrian resort of Ischgl has just spend € 1million to make enough snow to open. Elsewhere ski resorts are making as much as they can as Mother Nature fails to provide. The snow cannon is an integral part of the mountain landscape but comes at a cost. Last weekend Ischgl opened with 25 lifts running and 81kms of slopes. It didn't happen by accident. 1,000 cannons were working round the clock pumping out snow. The resort used up 650,000 cubic meters of water to open. It was a massive operation. Full article http://www.planetski.eu/news/3290

Nice one Knocker! I didn't mean to sound quite so condescending - apologies. I'm glad you are posting again - just look at the healthy debate you have generated in the last 12 hours alone! As long as people respond with a reasoned counter argument if they disagree, and keep personal digs out of it, then that's what a vibrant forum is all about! Well following your "interesting" anomaly chart from last night, I have to say this morning's ECM-GFS 8 to 10 Day Mean Height Anomaly chart for the 3 days up to Christmas Eve leaves me very under-whelmed! Looks like a bog standard westerly flow off the Atlantic.

Hi Knocker. I don't always agree with your posts but tonight I think your analysis (in both posts) is spot on. The anomaly chart for 28th Dec (copied below) is indeed very interesting, suggesting the UK could be in a bitter Northerly flow if it verified. Of course, it's a very long way off but it does tally with the thinking of several posters on here that the first real cold spell will arrive from the North. Softly, softly but is a trend developing?

Hi John. Several skiing websites are reporting that First remains closed and the site below says "valley run closed". But there's conflicting dates given on the websites for the official opening date, varying from 6th Dec according to onthesnow.co.uk to 20th Dec by skiresortinfo below (if correct the latter would explain why it's closed!). http://www.skiresort.info/ski-resort/grindelwaldfirst/snow-report/

Thanks Julian. Shame to see decent amounts of precipitation finally arrive mid-week, only to be largely wasted with freezing levels so high. As you say, one to watch as even a modest lowering of freezing levels would transform many resorts.

Hi frozencanals - It may not look too good based on model output today, but who knows what the weather will actually turn out to be during the week you are in Gaissau-Hintersee? So fingers crossed. But even if it is a bit green when you get are, there is a stunning 'fix' for any lack of snow if you travel down the road to the Kitzsteinhorn glacier. Admittedly it's one and a half hours drive away, but in the grand scheme of a weeks holiday it's not that far for a day trip and it's SO well worth it! It truly is an amazing day out. The cable car's (there's two) lift you from the valley (at the end of the valley from Kaprun) up to the glacier. The skiing up there is great fun and even if you don't ski you can take another cable car up to the mountain peak restaurant at 10,500ft and enjoy lunch and spectacular views from the roof-top viewing terrace. If you do go, pick the sunniest day of your stay, as any cloud and you could be immersed in clag! A couple of photos from my last visit: Higher pistes and snow park View from rooftop terrace Website: http://www.kitzsteinhorn.at/en/information/weather

Here's one way of making sure a lack of snow doesn't spoil the party! Davos (Switzerland) host the Cross Country Skiing World Cup this coming weekend and have just spent 3 days bringing snow in by lorry so the race can go ahead! Anyone fancy starting up a 'snow haulage' company with me and selling 'snow IMBY' offers in the Model thread? On a more sensible note, Meteo France published a snow conditions update on their website today (translated using Google). Worst conditions since 2006, but at least with the lower temps the snow cannons are now operating and conditions are improving. Update on the snow in the French mountains at December 10, 2014 Northern Alps - The last snowfall occurred on the night of Monday to Tuesday, 9 December. They involved almost all the mountain from 500 to 600m above sea level, reaching 10 to 20 cm above 1000m. Below 2000m, there was often no prior layer due to the mildness of November. It prevented artificial snow production, but now possible with the cooling in recent days. Thus, the snow conditions are poor on most mountains of the Alps: - 10 to 20 cm of fresh snow at 1500m, - 10 to 30 cm of snow at 2000m, - 2500m, snow depth is more consistent, generally between 50 and 80cm. In the Northern Alps, snow is normal only above 2300 meters and remains heavily loss on all ranges below this altitude. Not since December 2006 to find such a general deficit to 10 December. Southern Alps - The last snowfall date of Tuesday, December 9, amounts vary from a few centimeters to 25 cm along the Italian border. - At 2000m, the thickness of snow cover is generally between 25 and 35 cm in northern slope. - At 2500m, there is often a significant layer of 1 meter sometimes more than 1.50m. Pyrenees - The snow was minimal for the Pyrenees until Monday, December 8. Only the mountains of the Pyrenees-Orientales above 2000m enjoyed snow. Snow thicknesses from 20 cm to 1500m, 1800m 30 cm and 40 cm from 2000m. The snow depth is now in line with average season. For those who speak French. the full report: http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites?articleId=19194864

Hi Ali1977 - I share your concerns as I’m off to Germany for a skiing holiday on the 4th January. I can tell you I’ve been depressing myself of late with my posts! I’d much prefer to be posting good news and lots of snowy webcam shots! But there’s plenty of time for things to change and posts such as those from Recretos and Fergieweather today give rise for cautious optimism that the models might be looking very different two weeks from now. Hi J10 - yes, I can certainly recall Val D'Isere being pulled before. Probably going back to those awful mild winters in the 90's and 00's. But more promising news tonight! The FIS website has posted today that "conditions have improved in the last few days" and that local organising authorities are "remaining hopeful, yet cautious for the events scheduled just before Christmas" with Val d’Isere "given a positive snow control" (progress check-point) for the Ladies race. So well done to the guys in the resort. Carinthian - looks like your part of the Alps is doing better than most... second year running?!!! In the meantime there’s some more light snow heading for the Alps this evening (just a shame the front is fizzling out as it moves SE). Euro4 midday today: 06.00 am Thurs 11th

^^ Nice one J10!! It was a bit of a Corporal Jones headline from the Telegraph (probably intended, but it went over my head!). Fingers crossed that more snow falls this week than both of us suggest above. Unfortunately I've just learnt that the FIS has pulled this coming weekend's (13th/14th Dec) slalom and giant slalom competitions from Val D'Isere and Courchevel due to lack of snow. They've moved the competitions to Sweden. I rather suspect that unless the next 7 days brings some good snowfall to Val D'Isere, the women's downhill set for the 20th Dec is in jeopardy too. I understand that Val Gardena has faired much better for snow so might be in a better position to run the men's downhill on the same date. Edit: Just checked the Meteo France forecast for Val D'Isere out to Mon 15th Dec and there's only a couple of days with showery snow, so at this point in time, not looking promising for the downhill race to be held there on the 20th.