Blessed Weather

According to the BBC1 weather forecast at lunchtime today there's every chance of some snow falling on the tops of the Scottish mountains next week. Output from this mornings GFS 06z certainly supports the Met Office's thoughts. Here's a chart showing the height of the 0c isotherm for next Thurs 21st (but note that there are similar charts from Mon right through to Thurs). Virtually the whole of Scotland has the 0c isotherm height at 1,500 metres or approx. 4,500 feet. With Ben Nevis at 4,409 feet that's one mountain top that looks likely to turn white!

Next week not looking ideal for camping in the Cairngorms! Tonight's ECM 12z T850 hPa output showing the 0c isotherm reaching the far north of Scotland on Monday and staying for an unwelcome 4 days until Thurs 21st before upper temps finally recover on Friday. Great for skiing in January, not so clever for hill walkers in August!

I thoroughly enjoy this thread and the terrific posts from many members (too many to list). But I do get disappointed when people who have posted their interpretation of model output (even if it is in FI) get impolite comments from others. So today's "discussion" amongst posters causes me to ask a model output related question please. I read many posts that refer to "upper air pattern" and comments along the lines of "until the upper air pattern indicates X", then model output suggesting Y should be ignored. But don't the numeric weather predictions of the models take into account the upper air patterns in their mathematical calculations to predict the weather?? Ready to be shot down...

Probably uses the same base source (Ostia)? But as it's a chart from the Met Off, it's possibly the better bet for following SST's this Autumn/Winter? Thanks for the link Evening Thunder. It's interesting how one vigorous low pressure system can impact the sea surface temps quite so much (but I guess that's a consequence of the shallow nature of the waters off the UK). With the next week forecast to see strong, cold N. Westerly's blowing, the SST's could continue their decline.

Thanks for sharing the link Mike. If we get a cold blast from the East this winter, the above average sea temps in the North Sea (if maintained) could trigger some heavy convective snow showers if we're lucky (assuming you're a snow lover of course!). It'll be worth tracking the SST anomalies as the winter progresses. Here's the chart for today, 13th August 2014, showing North Sea temps +2c to +3c above the long term average for this time of year:

Seems to be a technical problem with the GEM output shown on Netweather tonight? The run is for the period 7th July to 12th July. Meanwhile, as others have pointed out, the cold upper air is now building in the Artic. Tonight's ECM 12z T850 for Fri 22nd Aug showing the growth of -5c and -10c uppers in that part of the world, and unfortunately for those looking for a return to warmth later in August, the 0c isotherm reaches down to the Shetland Isles.

Yes, all the forecasts for Essex and Suffolk had the overnight band of thunderstorms well west of us snowsummer. Just a band of cloud for us! Well early this morning I thought my alarm clock had malfunctioned! Woke up with it so dark outside I thought it was still night-time. Then we had a short (20 minute) but intense thunderstorm with all the bells and whistles. I guess the models (and the Met Off by their own admission) are struggling with the exact locale of storms as they flood north off the continent. Take tonight's model output for 6.00 a.m. Saturday. GFS 12z would have East Anglia heading for a deluge, whereas the Euro4 model has it all missing us. Which do think will be nearer the mark? GFS Euro4 Edit - It's 9.30 Fri evening and I've just looked at the rainfall radar. Showing storms heading north across the SE and heading for E. Anglia. They're weren't shown on Euro4, so much maligned GFS precipitation charts might be heading for a win here!

Someone who shares my hate of dull, grey, leaden skies! After a pretty good week of sun and warmth here in Suffolk, I, many others in the model thread, and the UKMO, thought (from the model output) that the East coast would be plagued by grey skies and cool winds off the North Sea this weekend. But it's actually turned out a great Saturday afternoon here. Plenty of sun for the majority of the afternoon, a very reasonable 18.5C and a lovely sunny evening to end the day!

I think many of us are very jealous of you carinthian. It certainly does look a wonderful ski resort. I hope you're enjoying a fantastic last weekend of skiing. For many resorts this is indeed the last weekend of the season. There will soon be only a handful of higher resorts left open, so I guess it's (sadly) time to say goodbye to the 2013/2014 skiing season. As J10 posted earlier, a strange season that got going late, then the snow coming thick and fast, but at the end spoiled somewhat by a milder than average March and April, unfortunately in a year where Easter fell late. For those resorts that are staying open a while longer, the forecast for the next week is far from perfect. Here is the forecast from the Oberland Wetter service for Austrian resorts. They predict the freezing level will not fall below 2,400m during the week. The Chamonix weather service paints a similar picture for the Haut Savoie region of France. Until next midweek, we find ourselves in front of a low-pressure area located over West Europe in a changeable, partly slightly foehny south-westerly weather current. Mild, but also repeatedly humid, unstably layered air masses will reach us. April-like weather conditions with repeated sunny spells are forecast. In the second half of the week, the low-pressure area will move from West to Central Europe, subsequently the influence of low-pressure will increase in the Alpine regions. Thick clouds will prevail, heavy precipitation is temporarily forecast, however, a significant decrease in temperature is probably not expected. As this is probably my last post of the season could I thank J10 for his excellent weekly weather & ski conditions updates. Finally, my nomination for the "webcam shot of the season" award goes to this beautiful night-time image from the webcam on the mountain across Lake Zell that looks back towards Zell am See ski resort. In the distance on the left you can see the lights from the facilities at the top of the Kitzsteinhorn glacier. A fantastic image and illustrates why, day or night, winter or summer, for me it's always a privilege to be in the mountains. Roll on next season!

Having posted about lower slopes struggling in some resorts and how this season's weather & snowfall has played out in the Alps, I recalled the posts earlier in the season from fellow poster, Carinthian, from Katschberg in Austria. At one stage (was it February?) that area was enjoying a real purple patch of weather when low pressure was stuck over Italy and the snow kept falling in the Italian and Southern Alps, giving impressive accumulations. Well having looked at the webcams for Katschberg today, the resort is looking in GREAT shape for this stage of the season! The skiing there must be fantastic, lots of snow and (from what I could see) hardly any people on the slopes. Note to self - must get to Katschberg for a skiing holiday soon!! Here's a couple of webcam shots. The first looking down on the resort showing all the runs looking great. The second at the bottom of one of the runs. Just look at the depth of snow remaining to the right of the piste!

I think you're right J10. In many ways a strange season for the Alps. As you say, the snow arrived late. Then it came thick and fast. But all too often the freezing level was just a little too high to allow lower pistes to accumulate the sort of impressive depths building a few hundred metres higher up the mountain. Then finally we end up with a very mild March in a season that needed to last late into April due to the timing of Easter this year. Nevertheless, judging from your snow depths reports and looking around the webcams on higher slopes, I'm fairly sure people heading off to the Alps for Easter will still have a fabulous time with plenty of good skiing, even if the final run back into some resorts bears more resemblance to a slush puppy than a piste by the afternoons!

As always, excellent posts above from J10 with lots of info and some good news on a number of fronts, including the piste depths holding up despite the temperatures, and colder air making inroads from the north/north west this week. Indeed, today's 850 Hpa charts from model output (GFS and ECM) show the 0c isotherm line getting further south past the Alps than forecasts were suggesting a few days ago. Hopefully the lower temperatures will slow lower piste deterioration and give some fresh snow above 1800 metres. I think (on reflection) that my earlier post saying "some resorts will now struggle to stay open" gave the wrong impression. Resorts such as Feldberg in Germany and La Bresse in France have no set closing dates, so will close as conditions dictate. And other resorts that have now closed had reached their "close by" date. Other "main stream" resorts with published closing dates yet to be reached are (from what I can see) only struggling with lower pistes. So, I think what I should have said was that some resorts will struggle to keep some of their lower slopes open. To illustrate what I meant, I've grabbed a few webcam shots from today to illustrate my point, but I must emphasise that even in these resorts, there is still great skiing to be found on the higher pistes. First of all La Clusaz, were I skied in January of this year. The webcam shows the runs back into the town. This resort is scheduled to stay open until 27th April. Next Les Menuires in the 3 Valleys. This shot is at the bottom of one of the nicest and longest blue runs in the Alps, starting at the top station (from where the telecabin arrives from Val Thorens) and descending all the way down into the apartments and bars of Les Menuires. This resort is scheduled to stay open until 25th April. Finally, the piste front at Les Gets. The resort is scheduled to stay open until 13th April, so only a few more days to go here. To summarise, some lower slopes struggling, but upper slopes still providing good skiing. I for one have great admiration for the guys who maintain the pistes in the resorts we visit - they do a fantastic job, particularly in late season with conditions such as currently being experienced.

The mild weather in the Alps is starting to take its toll. After the last week of double digit temperatures for most resorts the coming week looks equally as mild. Snow is disappearing fast on lower slopes and some resorts will now struggle to stay open. Indeed, some lower resorts have now closed for the season. Higher resorts still have an abundance of depth on their upper slopes, so good skiing still to be enjoyed at resorts such as Tignes, Val Thorens and Obergurgl. So a mixed picture for people heading to the Alps for Easter - hopefully you've booked a high altitude resort! Below, tonight's ECM 850 Hpa chart for next Tues showing the +10c isotherm covering the Alps (which will probably be the warmest day of the week, but unfortunately no cold air to reverse the thaw expected all week).

With pollution and Sahara dust making the headlines this week, I was wondering if any other visitors to the Alps this last month have noticed any discolouration of the snow? When I was in Val Cenis (Savoie, France) in mid-March it was very noticeable, with a severe discolouration making the snow look a browny, pink colour. This was very noticeable from high chair lifts or telecabins as the pistes were white due to pisting effectively churning up the snow, whilst surrounding mountain side was coloured. In 45 years of skiing I've not seen anything like it before. I found the following research that suggests the effect of this is a faster snow melt as the particles absorb heat from the sun. (Open in a new tab or the link will take you away from NW website - sorry, using iPad and can't see option for link to open new page). http://ncar.ucar.edu/press/behind-the-scenes-pollution-speeds-up-snow-melt-in-europe-asia

A mild week coming up for the Alps. The first half of the week will be sunny with day time highs easily reaching +12c to +14c in many resorts, max's peaking mid-week. But at least overnight lows will drop to 0c or below at the start of the week, allowing runs to be pisted and freeze overnight, so enjoyable skiing to be had in the mornings. However, from mid-week the weather looks set to turn more unsettled with showers or patchy outbreaks of rain possible at resort level. Whilst day-time highs will drop to single figures, this unsettled weather may unfortunately stop overnight lows from dropping below freezing. Not such good news for maintaining lower pistes. But as other posters have reported, there's great snow depths in many resorts, so if you are heading off to the mountains in the closing weeks of the season, all is far from lost! Tonight's ECM 850 Hpa chart for mid-week shows the +10c isotherm widely across the Alps.

Many thanks J10. I understand. So when you hit the "vote post up" button it gives the poster a count of one on their "reputation" score. Must be software from the good old US of America!! I think the "Like" button was better - did what it said on the tin! And you could see who liked a post. Anyway, cheers for replying.

Good to see this weeks colder, snowy spell in the Alps. It's come at just the right time to allow the resorts to repair pistes and top-up their snow stock-piles to get them through to Easter. In fairness, the models, particularly GFS, have been forecasting a cold spell for around the 22nd for some time - and for once the FI forecasts appear to have verified. What was fascinating to watch in Val Cenis was how the pisteurs had built up massive piles of snow around the mountain during the good times (usually under a snow cannon) and then, as required, pushed the stock-pile around the piste to repair thin/muddy areas, thus maintaining the piste in good condition. By the way, can anyone tell me what's happened to the "like" button? And what are the new "reputation" and "vote post up" buttons for. Thanks.

Photo from piste side bar here in Val Cenis at 4.30 today.

Whoops. Date in my post should have been Mon 17th. Shouldn't post from the bar after a few beers!! Even warmer today at +16c. Like a summers day. But pistes holding well above 2,000m even in the afternoon. Nose very red!! I should have read J10's post about sun cream!

Mon 11th March - a great days skiing here in Val Cenis in the Savoie, French Alps. It's been wall-to-wall sunshine and temps reached +15c in the village at 1,450 metres. We get on the pistes at 9 in the morning and ski until 2 pm. Then it's a long lunch and a ski back to the village through slush. At least the overnight lows are 0c, so the pistes are in great condition again by morning. Well done the pisteurs!!

Well it's turned out to be a warmer week in the Alps than forecasts were suggesting at this time last week. Many resorts have seen temperatures well into double digits, with lows struggling to get to freezing on a couple of nights, e.g. St. Anton at 1,350m reached 14c on a couple of days. The cool northerly airflow forecast to come down the flank of the high pressure centred over the UK slipped too far east, missing the Alps. I'm skiing in Val Cenis in the southern French Alps next week and have been watching both ECM and (particularly) GFS models toying with the idea of a cold northerly blast to bring a welcome lowering of temperatures. But looking at the latest runs today, the coldest air (-5c isotherm on the 850 Hpa charts) is once again dropping down too far east of the Alps. In fact the +10c isotherm is over the southern Alps for a couple of days next week, so I'm chucking out the thick fleeces and packing tee-shirts!

Hi York-snow. As J10's weekly forecast above suggests, next week does cool off a little in the middle of the week. This is confirmed by Austrian website wetter.at that has Sunday +9c max falling to Weds +5c max, then rising to +9c again by week end. http://www.wetter.at/wetter/oesterreich/tirol/sankt-anton-am-arlberg/prognose/9-tage Overnight lows from Mon to Fri all below zero (with Tue & Wed coldest at -4c). In my experience, those sorts of temps won't do too much damage to pistes on North facing slopes. Great skiing in the morning, turning a little soft by the afternoon. (Typical spring skiing). So should be a good week's skiing in St Anton for anyone there next week! Your posts says you aren't there until the 29th March? Lots of twists and turns in the weather before then. For instance, tonight's GFS 12z run suggests a cold blast for the Alps around the 21st March. But that's way out in fantasy land and at this stage who knows what end-March will bring! By the way, the best après ski I've ever enjoyed in the Alps was at the Mooserwirt bar on the slopes 500 metres above St Anton. The place rocks from 4 pm!!

Well I for one am very jealous of anyone setting off this weekend for a week's skiing in the Alps. There's cross-model agreement that the Alps will enjoy a settled week with plenty of sunshine. After all the recent snowfall (particularly in the French Alps) the skiing should be fantastic and the sunshine should be perfect for enjoying lunch and a beer on the mountain restaurant terrace! And with the high pressure near the UK feeding cool easterlies across the Alps for the majority of the week, temperatures won't be silly warm to spoil the pistes. Here's the ECM 12z chart for mid-week:

Hi Tim, I guess a frustrating week with regard model output watching for your ski trip to Andorra, with the AH threatening to torpedo the originally favourable forecasts. I don't think it looks too bad though, with decent snowfall setting in tomorrow (Fri 28th) and, whilst easing, continuing into your arrival day on Sat 1st Mar. So hopefully you'll get there with some white stuff falling! A few charts below from the Met Office. First the pressure chart showing the front arriving Friday and then two Euro4 charts for Spain showing Friday and early Saturday's projected snowfall.