Blessed Weather

Article published today in the Telegraph Online 'Ski & Snowboard' section. Extracts: Do not panic about lack of snow in the Alps yet, say forecasters It is not yet time to press the panic button over the lack of snow in the Alps this season, according to specialist ski weather forecasters. Many Alpine resorts, particularly in France, have seen very little snow so far this winter, with most slopes below 2,000m remaining green, an unusual state of affairs for this point in December. But the poor start to the season is only as rare as one in six and it is not yet time to worry, says Fraser Wilkin, of snow forecasting website weathertoski.co.uk. “Some of the best winters haven't got going until well into December. This year is a bit of a concern but it's not quite time to press the panic button..." Paul Wisely, of weather forecasting website myweather2.com, said there are plenty of nerves about the lack of snow but the situation is improving. Full article: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/snowandski/skiing-news/11276610/Do-not-panic-about-lack-of-snow-in-the-Alps-yet-say-forecasters.html

Disappointing to see the potency of the polar maritime incursions from the NW being watered down as the event draws nearer. For example, last week I posted the GFS chart for next Thurs 11th Dec (admittedly FI). A look at todays output from GFS clearly shows the pattern flattening: GFS last week for 11th Dec Today's chart Very patchy snowfall across the Alps this weekend. Most places not seeing enough to enable work on pistes. The Western Alps seem to have fared worst than the Eastern. Below, some webcams shots from today. Val D'Isere not looking good with the Ladies downhill now 2 weeks away. The Galzig Bahn was running in St. Anton but clearly no skiing back to the bottom. This weekends prize for 'most snow' looks like it might go to Katschberg in the SE Alps: Val D'Isere piste front Val D'Isere Vallee du Manchet St. Anton piste front (Galzig bahn) Katschberg The temperatures across the Alps look very respectable (low) this coming week, but as J10 says in his blog posted this weekend, not much snow expected. Snowforecast.com suggesting Val D'Isere 3cm, Wengen 5cm and St. Anton 7cm at mid-mountain. But we keep up hope for heavier snow next weekend, with the GFS showing a low forming over the Southern Alps. Let's see if remains in the output as the week progresses:

Great 1st Blog Julian. Very comprehensive. Many thanks. Now that the snow is finally arriving, let's hope it keeps on coming through the season!

Not good news! And I suspect there's many a piste manager worrying about their opening dates at the moment. Hopefully the next week will see some decent snowfall for most regions of Austria. We have a friend in Spittal in your part of Austria (Carinthia) and they've just posted on Facebook that their first snow of the winter has arrived (pic below). Hopefully as I write you're watching the white stuff fall!

Hi knocker. May I comment on your post. It was the first sentence about the Atlantic express running to schedule and the chart you posted that got me interested. So I thought I would visit the NCEP website and run the 31 day 500hPa geopotential height anomaly for last December 2013 to get a feel for where we are this year. Comparing that output with your ECM EPS mean chart: NCEP Dec 2013 ECM EPS Ensemble mean for 13 Dec2014 If I'm reading the charts correctly, some significant differences with the mean anomaly's your chart shows: - last year's positive heights over Europe replaced with lower heights, - last year's negative heights over NE Canada/Newfoundland replaced with positive heights, - last year's positive heights over Alaska/Aleutians replaced with lower heights. So lots different from last year which IMO suggests this winter will continue to develop differently to last year's Atlantic onslaught?

Having chewed over the timing issue I believe you should carry on with the weekend update Julian. It's unreasonable to expect you (or any of us) to commit to pulling it together during the working week. If I'm able I'll try and give a quick update on a Thurs evening with a chart or two. And no doubt as the season gets under way other posters will again be posting their own views on the upcoming weather as developments that impact the Alps show on the models. And with regards upcoming developments, it's ironic that with the mood in the Mod thread flattening almost as much as the Nth hemisphere pattern, I think there's finally reasonable hope that most of the Alps will get some decent snowfall to lower levels over the next 10 days. It's all thanks to the Azores ridge pulling back sufficiently for troughs to dig into Europe, allowing some chilly PM air to reach the mountains. There's a first attempt this weekend, but I'm keeping my eye on the 11th-12th Dec as both ECM and GFSP suggest this could be a more potent effort. Charts this evening for the 11th: ECM GFS P GFS precipitation

Indeed 95 Degrees. In fact on 25th November Meteo France posted that 2014 likely to be in the top 3 hottest years since the start of the twentieth century. I've translated using Google: The year 2014 will range most likely among the three hottest years in France since the beginning of the twentieth century. Temperatures were remarkably warm since the beginning of the year in France. Over the period from January to October, seven months (out of) ten experienced temperatures above normal. http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites?articleId=18304324 And in a separate post they say this Autumn will be the second warmest since 1900 as a result of a constant flow of winds from the south. http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites?articleId=18290790 Could I too extend a welcome to Eightwinds. Good to have a dedicated "France Weather" thread.

Hi Julian. Great to see your weekly posts back for the season! I particularly enjoyed your "Looking forward synoptically" analysis and I think this (and the "Current position") is what many observers of this thread will be wanting to read as the season progresses. My thinking being, many people heading off to the Alps (and Pyrenees) for a skiing holiday will be wanting to know what the conditions are like over there and what weather they are likely to see during their week's holiday. Of course the problem with this is it ideally requires a "next weeks outlook" post on the Friday before people set off early Saturday. Not ideal for those of us who work Mon - Fri. Anyway, just a thought and it would be good to get other peoples views. Meanwhile.... can we have some snow soon, please!!

Sat in front of my laptop on Nov 29th looking around the resort webcams I think I can safely say that as November's go it's been a pretty poor one for the Alps. Some snow, but mainly for the southern Alps, and then only at height. Weather largely dominated by a mild southerly flow giving above long-term average temperatures. Here's a few webcam shots from today that sum it up: St Anton (St Christoph) Val D'Isere piste front Even the highest resorts are looking a little thin for snow. Val Thorens today at 2,300m There's now only three weeks to go before the first Men's Downhill at Val D'Isere. A change in the weather pattern is badly needed so I'm hoping the recent ECM charts suggesting a cold blast from the north later next week make it to reality.

Hi keithlucky. I agree with knocker's post above. What exactly are you disagreeing with? The WSI blog was looking at mid-Dec and asking "will Artic air return". They put forward a reasoned argument that it won't. You put forward a link reporting on the here-and-now weather which, yes, is snowy for the NE USA and, yes, some further snow is possible into the first couple of days of December. But thereafter, from the 2nd Dec through to the 12th Dec, today's GFS 06z run shows a positive 850hPa temperature anomaly for virtually the whole of the USA and clearly no plunge of Artic air. The charts with the first showing the last of the bitter air moving off towards Newfoundland. 1st Dec 2nd Dec 6th Dec 8th Dec 12th Dec WSI used largely ECM output for their blog, but it looks like the GFS agrees, no Artic plunge in the run up to mid-Dec.

Hands up guys! My geographical ignorance! I didn't realise that Morocco had a decent mountain range in the Atlas Mountains. Wikipedia says: "The highest peak is Toubkal, with an elevation of 4,165 metres (13,665 ft) in southwestern Morocco. The Atlas ranges separate the Mediterranean and Atlantic coastlines from the Sahara Desert". And I thought GFS was going off on one. So I guess living here in Suffolk at the mighty height of 20m above sea level I should probably accept that that Morocco will get snow before me!

^^^ Thank you John, I take your point. I was just wondering whether there were any ramifications from the 11-15 day pattern WSI were suggesting for N.A.

WR sentence in bold - I've just posted a well argued blog from WSI Weatherwise in the North America thread that says another plunge of frigid air into NE America won't happen in the run up to mid-Dec. Maybe our resident 'upstream expert' Nick S. could comment as to whether he thinks this is good/bad/indifferent to us as Dec unfolds. (Sorry mods if not suitable to this thread). Post #3479 in this thread https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/32704-north-american-weather-usa-canada/page-174

What the heck!!! Now this just isn't fair! Some of us are sat here in the UK patiently waiting for our first snow of the winter and that totally reliable model, the GFS, is showing snow for Morocco on the 6th Dec!! How can Morocco have snow before us??!!

There's a well presented argument with some interesting charts in the latest WSI Weatherwise Blog suggesting that North America won't be going back into the freezer in the run up to mid-December. Headline: In a season filled with significant model volatility and poor performance in the 11-15 day range, one may view the current warm trends in the current medium range forecast with a good degree of skepticism. After all, we all remember how calls for a warm November in late October flipped suddenly and dramatically as the month turned. Is there room for such a big change now? Full blog: http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/mid-december-warmth-prevails-or-another-cold-surprise/

Hi Knocker. Hope you don't mind but I'd like to put a positive spin on the sentence I've highlighted. We've all been moaning about lack of real cold in Europe to tap into, and on a number of occasions in FI the GFS has teased that the Siberian PV might drop a lobe down into Europe but it's never materialised. So I was taken with your chart as, IMO, it shows the reason the Siberian PV seems to have disappeared is that it's drained down into Europe, finally bringing that much needed cold air? So this could be good news for coldies, but your final sentence "one run" is noted! I've marked the chart:

Not a good week of weather coming up for the Alps. We’ve been stuck in the same pattern for some weeks now – trough near the UK, high pressure block to the east with a resultant predominantly southerly flow across the mountains. There will be some moderate precipitation around mid-week but this will fall as rain apart from on the highest slopes. GFS precipitation chart for Thurs 27th Example freezing levels this coming week: Sun 23rd Wed 26th Fri 28th West Alpe d’Huez 3,500m 2,600m 2,500m Mid Wengen 3,500m 2,600m 2,300m East Katschberg 3,300m 2,200m 2,150m The GEFS mean temp anomaly at 850 hPa highlights the warmth of the southerly flow: Today Fri 28th Two charts for next Friday 28th show the long southerly draw all the way from North Africa: GFS P 850 hPa ECM SLP With lots of chopping and changing with the model output at the moment there's little point in speculating about developments beyond the coming week, but hopefully this time next week we will be looking at a more favourable picture!

Meteo France have today (20th Nov) posted on their website that 6 resorts are partly opening this weekend as a result of the recent snowfall. So ignoring glacier skiing, this is 5 French resorts more than normal for this early in the season. It seems to confirm that the 'stuck' pattern over the last couple of weeks (UK trough with a S-S/W flow over Europe) hasn't been all bad and appears to have benefitted some resorts in the Southern Alps. Alps: Skiing snow already The weekend of November 22-23, six ski resorts open part of their ski area. These resorts - La Clusaz, Montgenèvre, Alpe d'Huez, Courchevel, Val Thorens and Tignes - has benefited from recent falls and relatively abundant snow. Val Thorens, Europe's highest resort, is usually the only open so early in the season. The first significant snow fall of the winter season 2014-2015 occurred on November 4 all the French Alps, where they fell between 15 and 40 cm of snow above 2000m. Further falls occurred between 14 and 18 November, first above 2 300-2 500 meters, then gradually at altitudes less high, up to 1 000-1 200 meters. Above 2 300-2 500 meters, they brought from 50 to 100 cm over a majority of additional mass. Consequence: a thicker than normal snowpack for the season (except in some massive Savoie), especially in the Southern Alps and south of the Isere. http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites?articleId=18084138

There's a big difference between the GFS P and ECM at Day10. GFS P has a sub-975mb low sat in France, the Azores ridge cutting off further feeds from a weak PV lobe on the Canadian side and the main PV clearly on the Siberian side. Indeed the Azores ridge and Scandi high looking like having a possible handshake. Meanwhile the ECM fills the euro low and has a much stronger looking Canadian PV lobe continuing to feed the UK trough. Very very different at Day10 and either or neither could happen with continued chops & changes the only certainty! GFS P 30th Nov ECM 30th Nov

Hi jonboy, Not sure you are correct with what you are saying. Here's the latest bulletin from NSICD National Snow and Ice Data Center for Oct 2014: Overview of Conditions Sea ice extent in October averaged 8.06 million square kilometers (3.11 million square miles). This is 850,000 square kilometers (328,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 long-term average of 8.91 million square kilometers (3.44 million square miles) and 1.29 million square kilometers (498,000 square miles) above the record low for the month observed in 2007. ....Arctic sea ice extent for October 2014 was the 6th lowest in the satellite record. Through 2014, the linear rate of decline for October Arctic ice extent over the satellite record is -6.9% per decade. ....Projections of climate change through the rest of the century show amplified warming in the Arctic compared to the rest of the planet. Full bulletin: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Guten Tag carinthian. Always great to read updates from someone actually there in the mountains! All to often a person can read the skimpy updates from websites such as Ski Club of GB and snowforecast.com (and also model output) and get the wrong impression about the weather in the different regions of the Alps. As you say, a nice surprise to see Katschberg managing to get in on the snow action as the models were suggesting it wouldn't fall as far east as you. Can this snowfall survive the warmer blip forecast for the coming weekend and early next week and help form the piste base for the coming season? Hope so. What date does Katschberg open for the season?

Interesting blog from Dr. Jeff Masters' posted today on Weather Underground about the incredible snowfalls of the last 36 hours. Extracts: Buffalo Belted With Five Feet of Snow; Is Jet Stream Weirdness to Blame? America's remarkable mid-November Arctic blast continued Wednesday morning, with hundreds of daily record low temperatures falling again. Charlotte, North Carolina bottomed out at 14°F, the coldest temperature ever measured so early in the season... ....Is the jet stream getting weird? This week's intense cold blast is being triggered by an unusually extreme jet stream pattern.... If Arctic changes are truly to blame for wacky jet stream behavior, losing the remaining 50 percent of the Arctic sea-ice coverage between now and 2030 will bring even greater antics. Full blog: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2863

Absolutely brilliant!! And when us snow starved people of Britain finally get a stonking cold beasterly later this December, travelling across the North Sea which is currently at 13C - 14C (+4C above the long term temp for this time of year) we'll get our very own 'lake effect' with buckets of snow. (And then I woke up.... )

For those heading for the Alps this coming season, you may be interested in the venues and dates for the FIS (International Ski Federation) Downhill Races - either to miss them and the crowds they attract, or on a more positive note, to "be there" and soak up the fantastic atmosphere! Here's hoping none of the events need to be pulled this season through lack of snow!! DECEMBER 20 December 2014 12:15 Downhill | Men Val Gardena / Groeden (ITA) 20 December 2014 10:30 Downhill | Ladies Val d'Isere (FRA) 28 December 2014 11:45 Downhill | Men Santa Caterina Valfurva (ITA) JANUARY 10 January 2015 11:30 Downhill | Ladies Bad Kleinkirchheim (AUT) 16 January 2015 10:30 Downhill | Men Wengen (SUI) 17 January 2015 12:30 Downhill | Men Wengen (SUI) 17 January 2015 10:30 Downhill | Ladies Cortina d Ampezzo (ITA) 24 January 2015 10:15 Downhill | Ladies St. Moritz (SUI) 24 January 2015 11:45 Downhill | Men Kitzbuehel (AUT) FEBRUARY 21 February 2015 11:30 Downhill | Men Saalbach (AUT) 28 February 2015 11:45 Downhill | Men Garmisch Partenkirchen (GER) 28 February 2015 11:45 Downhill | Men Garmisch Partenkirchen (GER) MARCH 07 March 2015 12:00 Downhill | Men Kvitfjell (NOR) 07 March 2015 10:45 Downhill | Ladies Garmisch Partenkirchen (GER) 18 March 2015 09:30 Downhill | Men Meribel (FRA) 18 March 2015 11:30 Downhill | Ladies Meribel (FRA)

Good to see snow falling again this weekend. The webcams at bergfex.com are simply brilliant at being able to follow the weather and snow conditions develop on an hour by hour basis for virtually all resorts in the Alps. http://www.bergfex.com/oesterreich/ It’s the only site I’m aware of that gives you a full archive of all the webcam shots taken that day, and then back for 180 days! For example, here’s the weather and snow fall for yesterday, Saturday 15th Nov, in Les Menuires at 1,850m in the 3 Vallees, France. The forecast was snow showers with freezing level falling from 2,250m during the day to 1,600m by Saturday night, captured superbly by the webcams: 08.00 and no snow 12.00 snow showers settling on the tops 17.00 settling nicely in the resort! Sunday 10.45 looking more like it! And the weather the week ahead? Well it starts off in the all too familiar pattern with rain/snow early in the week, then later on as high pressure noses in over Scandinavia the weather dries up as the flow switches from a southerly direction to an easterly direction and the sun comes out. Freezing level around 1,600m at first, rising to 3,000m later in the week. But if ECM is correct hopefully falling again soon after. ECM Mon 17th Nov S-S/W flow Fri 21st Nov E-N/E flow setting in? We still await the first Alps-wide, down-to-lower-level dump of snow.