phil nw.

Yes indeed TWS.I think there are hints as early as T132hrs. fax. Also good points made by GP with ECM 500`s and that GFS chart. Certainly a lot of scope for the models to further change towards the Easterly scenario later next week.

Hi again Andy, Yes,seems as if you will see it going to snow soon.I am getting heavy snow now and it looks as if its starting to settle.

It stated as rain/sleet here but now turning to snow and getting heavier. I think it takes an hr. or so for cooling to take place. You should be ok soon.

Light sleet and snow in the last hr.slight thawing of lying snow .

Yes indeed,just 6 miles from you. I reckon its given another cm or so in the last hr.

Snow intesified in the last hr--moderate to heavy now.Another cm or so in last hour or so and freezing on ground now.

Looking at radar although its fragmenting there`s still a fair bit of Snow around the Midlands,still snowing here. http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=holiday&amp...oop3uur&URL I have approx 6.cms now.

Snowing moderately.0c.approx 6cms. now. Been snowing off and on since about 5.30am.Here are some pics. i took about 2hrs. ago. A reasonable fall of Snow--enough to entertain all the youngsters--including my Grandchildren who are all off school today.

Some progress North East again albeit slowly. http://www.meteo24.com/uk/index.php?go=4&geoItem=uk_rad PPN close to South Coast now right along towards Sussex/Kent.

Looking at recent radar the ppn band seems to have almost halted its progression and is stalling on the Welsh Borders at present.Signs of it tilting more to a SouthEast/NorthWest alignment. http://www.meteo24.com/uk/index.php?go=4&geoItem=uk_rad. Could be an all day event for some central parts tommorow.

That will do nicely thankyou!

Thanks to Steve M for a clear and informative post. Of course I hope you have got it spot on ,considering my location,lol.

I guess we have some margin of error around here Winston if the Snow band moves a little North or South we should see some eitherways.

Hi Tamara, Well this would give many of us a good Snow set.up,slow moving band too.Crikey for the first time this Winter even i have a chance stuck here in the heart of England. All we need now is for the ECM to behave itself and i might start rubbing my hands,lol.

I noticed that too and had to blink.If that came off then Snow for many i would think.

Hi Nick, Yes subtle differences even at 36/48hrs.the development and track of that trough to the SW still not certain.

A move back towards ECM and UKMO by 12Z GFS which means a better chance of a transistional Snow event for many parts of the UK except perhaps the South West and the extreme South. Even after Friday there`s still a lot of PM air in the mix of the following lows and this could mean further Snow in the North,especially the Highlands which could have a few days of lying snow from these systems. It`s good to see a few days of Winter sypnotics at any rate even if we don`t all get the lying Snow this time.

The Atlantic air will probably get across by the weekend but really still not much milder and there`s quite a lot of PM air in the mix afterwards.

Hi Nick, Looking at 2m temps for later next week show its quite cold at surface even though at times many places are in 0 to -5c 850`s. Illustrates your point about residual cold air even though on the face of it no real cold feed on those days. The one concern about chances for Snow maybe the air drying out a little if the block asserts itself too much. Notice too Nick that the air off the Atlantic is only marginally warmer and more Cold air lurking further West on that Jet pattern. So plenty to focus on for a good while yet,it seems.

A different northern hemisphere pattern at last now seems to be evolving compared to the earlier part of winter with a more tranditional looking Winter set up projected.ie,some higher pressure to the North and a more Southerly tracking jet for a while. I expect cold zonality to be the dominant pattern in Feb. but this will allow for a some milder days but overall a colder month i think. I am going for just a little above normal at 5.4c

I tend to agree with you Steve.The growing season is extending well into "Autumn" these days.

Just thought i would post this , It highlights what Corinthian has said about the abnormally warm temps. in N.E. Europe and its Arctic seas.

Hi Nick, In contrast the end of the big freeze in 1963 ,early March was very gradual.We had a few sunny days on a gentle South Easterly with frosty nights.The daytime max`s increased a little day by day before the High declined to our East and the Atlantic fronts brought rain and South Westerly`s by about 4/5th March.By this time the Snow had all but gone. The first time the Atlantic had `won `the battle since December 1962!

Yes brings back memories.I was in High School then Tamara and Snow lay for 66 days here.We could arrange sledging sessions every evening after school without fail.We just took it for granted that the snow would be there. That was when I first kept a daily weather log having had my interest sparked by the exceptional conditions which started just after Christmas. I would settle for just a week or 2 of that this winter,if only just to give the youngsters an idea the pleasure and fun that can be had from crisp snow.At least it may drag them away from their playstations. :unsure: :blink:

Thanks Brick,interesting stuff.There`s been much discussion about the Arctic Oscolation in various threads lately and the connection to the upper atmospheric temps.Its good to learn a little more about why and how these temps. change periodically.