phil nw.

Dawlish Today, 10:53 Post #174 Cumulonimbus Group: Members Posts: 1,925 Joined: 24-November 05 From: Guess! Member No.: 4,727 QUOTE(phil n.warks. @ 7 Nov 2006, 10:03 AM) Hi AM, Thankyou for that link,i have Bookmarked it. Interesting to see quite a large divergence from around the weekend,and some going for cold next week.(London). It illustrates why the sypnotics showing in the models keep changing after about T120hrs. I don't, personally, take any notice of ensembles. The charts will always change T+120+ and, in fact, to 13th March, despite the variability implied by the ensembles, that High pressure over the UK has been constantly there, for a week...... Hi Dawlish, To save space i have just quoted part of your post. I usually look at the Ensembles when the models chop and change so much as they have been doing lately. Differences are some times observed earlier than T120hrs. and this signals caution when interpreting the sypnotics. There are times,especially,in settled conditions,where there is little difference way beyond T120 hrs. amongst the members so you would likely see a lot of model agreement further out. Its usefull to observe how many members favour a particular scenario going forward,ie temps.inorder to get an idea of how probable a certain trend is likely to be,say in a few days,for example. I note other posters have already responded to your POV on this quite thoroughly already so i don`t think i need add anymore .

I don`t mind too much how accurate poster`s LRF`s are. I enjoy reading all of them and the debates that ensue. I also appreciate the work and time that are put into their preparation. Although i `m a veteran of the 62/63 winter and have maintained a lifelong interest in Meteorology,especially the Pressure Charts,i still have alot to learn. I am thankfull to regular and more knowledgable posters like SM,GP,SF,Brick. and others(apologies for any ommisions)for their contributions,which help me to understand a little more each year. Kind Regards to you all.

Looks like you`re right according to met office radar i`m in the firing line,20miles east of B`ham. Temp.26c,very muggy and dark leaden sky.

Hi G.P., I just wish to add my thanks and admiration for your detailed and knowlegable post.It must have took a lot of research and i `m sure everyone who has read it appreciates the effort you have made .

Hi AC, Just seen your posts after mine.Yes it looks like i just missed the snow,but next to Abingdon i must live in the least snowiest part of the UK,lol. Best regards,Phil.

I have seen rain/sleet this afternoon but no snow yet .

A period of steady rain/sleet just stopped,lasted for 2 hrs approx.

My guess is for an April CET of 9.6 C I ve got a feeling that a lot of High pressure will be around UK this year continuing the pattern of last 18 months or so. I `m looking at a predominantly south/south west feed around a Biscay / European high pressure belt becoming more prominent later in the month as the Atlantic lows weaken and stay further west and north. We will still get the occasional colder day with rain but generally a settled and rather warm April i think.