Timmytour
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Posts posted by Timmytour
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I really don't understand why an adjustment downward of 0.5C needs to be made.
Now a 2.5C downward one would be much more in tune with what my estimate for the month was.....-
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3 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:
I think that the estimated provisional Hadley CET could be a little high this month - the Net Weather CET tracker is currently on 18.19*C, and this has for many years often been slightly higher than the final confirmed Hadley CET in general. Metcheck have their tracker figure at just under 17.6 which has over the years often been close to the final Hadley CET, sometimes a little higher, sometimes a little lower.
This July has really been a warm month overall mainly due to a heatwave from about the 16th to 23rd, away from that spell the rest of this month has otherwise felt fairly average and nothing outstanding. It has felt very much similar to July 2019 where an otherwise average month contained a notable five day heatwave.
Not sure I go along completely with your second paragraph. I think prior to the heatwave the month was exceptionally warm when considering the cloudy weather that accompanied it for many of us. I think this is what has given the month a lot of its impetus which the heatwave was able to build on. I've been struck with how warm the nights have been all month.
While very nice, I'm not sure the heatwave was particularly exceptional, bar the minima. For example it's pretty much certain that this month will end up a fair bit warmer than July 2019, but the latter delivered up a five day period of successive daily means above 20C and a maximum in excess of anything we saw this July..
I think the longest sustained run of daily mean CETs at or above 20C was between the 8th and 17th July in 1983. followed by 9 in August 2003 and runs of 8 in the Augusts of 1947, 1995 and 1997 and the July of 1976.
It wouldn't surprise me if this July makes it into that list as well, not so much because of the heatwave but because of the relative high minima that we've seen. -
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6 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:A touch of frost possible over the weekend in the far North in the Glen's by the weekend, And Northern areas into Monday morning.
We could refer to it as an Arctic plume......
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12 hours ago, damianslaw said:
August statistically has always been duller than June and July and more often than not May.. also wetter on average, quite often notably so. I'm never surprised to see unsettled conditions in August, expect them more than any point since March.
In terms of average daily max temps, this is how July and August split into four quarters fare, ranked 1-4 (or Hot to Cold) in terms of the warmest
The warmest period is split fairly evenly between the first three quarters, with the first half of August just pipping the first half of July for second place.
However there is a slight tendency for the second half of August to be warmer than the the first half of August in the years where the second half of July is the warmest quarter, as it is nigh on certain to be this year. That said, when the second half of July is the warmest, the first half of July is the coldest as often as the two halves of August combined.
Got a feeling however this year, looking at the models, we are heading for a 2-1-4-3 pattern similar to 2001
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On 12/07/2021 at 22:58, A Face like Thunder said:
Thank you for this Weather-history, most interesting. The figure for Martinstown, Dorset, was astonishing and was (I believe) a record rainfall and the only time that 10+ inches of rain fell in a 24 hour period in the 20th century (correct me if I'm wrong). I wonder what caused this terrible rainfall and loss of life? Presumably a low pressure system of some sort. We had 4 ins of rain in Dorset in 24 hours when we camped there at the end of July 1978, and thought that was bad, but July 1955 was on another scale.
And they had nothing to blame it on back then......
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40 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
Looks like we’re getting some agreement on next week. Early part of the week probably not too bad - cool with a few light showers around…..before the real trouble arrives towards the middle of the week. Could be quite a deep low swinging across the UK. All 3 models show it in different forms, so we will have to keep an eye on that as it develops.
I believe the proper Netweather term for the bit I've highlighted in bold is "nae bad"
Mind you, I've not seen it used much of late which is probably a fair indication of where the model output has been heading these past few days!-
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It was my first day of freedom yesterday after a spell of imprisonment for catching Covid so I wandered down the the local yesterday afternoon where one of my favorite local singers was booked to perform in the outside garden
Before doing so, knowing I was unlikely to be returning before the hours of darkness, I closed the windows in my kitchen and pulled down the blind.
While I was in the pub, fortunately within a marquee, right on cue as she began her performance, the heavens opened and I mean opened. I would struglle to recall a time when I have seen it rain with as much intensity for as long as it did. In fact, incredibly, it eased up while she was on her break and then came again with the same intensity and duration when she started up again!
I duly started making up for lost time in the pub and eventually at some point in time arrived home, a fact I am only aware of through the knowledge that I woke up in my bed this morning!
Upon opening the blind in the kitchen, I was astounded at the number of house flies that had accumulated behind it! I opened the window and nearly all disappeared, though a couple of unlucky ones ended up getting closer to the window than I imagine they would have liked to get!
I've not come across this before. I only moved here last year so hadn't experienced summer rain like that before with the blinds closed. However, a couple of months ago we had torrential rain, a day after which I noticed some earth below my back door and then a load of ants responsible for putting it there. Going across to the shop to get some ant powder, I met a mate who was in there to do the same having come across the same problem in his house!
I presume the collection of flies within the blinds, and the intrusion of ants into my house, were connected with the respective downpours. Is this a fair assumption on my part and, if so, is there an explanation of some sorts for it I can understand the ants I suppose but does heavy rain encourage flies into seeking refuge in a house even more than they usually do?
Are there any other peculiar traits concerning weather extremes and nature in this country? -
2 hours ago, Uncle_Barty said:
Matt Hugo pouring cold water on any suggestions of a better outlook on Twitter.
Tropics MJO/La Nina pointing towards a "disctintly average - poor" August.
If his record on better outlooks is as good as his record on cold outlooks, I'd say that's cause for optimism.....
meanwhile the models that didn't account for the development of a low pressure system off the beach of Florida appear to have been on the money....
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19 minutes ago, emmett garland said:
there is no place like home when the sun shines.
Couldn't agree more...I say the same about Kerry and for that matter Devon and Cornwall.
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28 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:
Personally I think its risky to write of 2-3 or maybe 4 weeks of a season based on current output,thank God Exeter are not going this way currently. I eventually see the troughs lifting with an improving picture towards the South....Hell if we don't see another summery spell next month I will Happily retire to the amateur forecasting home
Matt I'm guessing by the first map that ECM is discounting the possibility suggested by NHC here?
Or if such a system did end up forming, would it have blown out by 3rd August anyway?-
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10 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:
Yeah I know. Ireland summers are usually damp and wet, and not all that warm.
I speak from experience, as we used to visit my grandmother’s brother in cork in summers of 85, 89, 90, 91, 93. All of which were poor.
My classic was going for a five week holiday in Kerry as a kid which I thought beforehand was great! Only it was the summer of 1976 and when I went back after the summer holidays I was the only white kid in school!
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43 minutes ago, emmett garland said:
Here Dublin apart from May which was dreadful we have had a very decent spell with very dry weather and abundant sunshine. I can honestly say it feels like we are having a london summer and you are having a scottish one.
Working from home just outside London while regularly listening to Radio Kerry it's been very bizarre on quite a few days over this summer to listen to them talking about beautiful sunshine and warmth while I'm listening to the rain pouring down outside. At times I've had to pinch myself to remember they are broadcasting from Kerry! also, I find it incredible that, after just two of three days of fne warm weather, they invariably start talking about water shortages. What on earth happens to all the water out there! I know from the experience of many fortnight holidays spent out there that it comes in abundance!
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19 hours ago, Alderc said:
Feel much better, have cancelled Torquay next weekend and replaced it with Dubrovnik (well a little town about 4miles north) for 4nights. Looks like being low to mid 30s with overnight lows in the mid 20s and SSTs currently sat around 26C - much more appealing.
11 hours ago, East Lancs Rain said:Sounds like disgusting horrendous heat to me but if that's what you enjoy.... I'd much rather have Torquay myself. Anyway, 4 miles north??? With SST's of 26C it must be somewhere abroad!
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10 hours ago, Alderc said:I did say swapped Torquay for Dubrovnik…..so yes abroad.
10 hours ago, East Lancs Rain said:It was just the four miles north bit that confused me... Four miles north of where?
Just a wild stab in the dark here, but I'm going to guess that Alderc was referring to a place about 4 miles north of Dubrovnik
I've scrutinized his original post in minute detail and believe I've stumbled across a clue that has been left in the subtext which would be hard for anyone to have picked up apart from most people. -
11 hours ago, Man Without Beard said:
Wait, hotter than July 2013? That heatwave nearly lasted 3 weeks!
I think the average daily Min CET in 2013 was less than 13C. I'm guessing we've hardly had a min that low this month!
The nights have been the biggest driver of such a relatively high mean CET -
We sure did have some beautiful weather for the time I had to spend in isolation. I'm allowed back out tomorrow so although the greyness has already come back, I imagine I'll have to wait til them before I see the rain!
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Based on what we've had and what the models currently show, July 16th to 31st looks set to extend its lead as the warmest quarter of July and August, based on average daily max CETs during 2000 -2020
This would make it the 9th time in 22 years so over 40% of the time. With the 1st to 15th August in second place, it kind of puts to rest the gut feeling I had about the weather getting worse when the school summer holidays started!
The strange thing to me is how the first half of July is more often the coldest then it is the hottest! In fact it's been the coldest as many times as the second half of August, when summer is arguably on the wane, though of course the sea temps probably assist the latter.
Following goes on a scale of Hot - Warm - Cool - Cold. to represent order only and not actual temps.....
For Comparison....here's the figures for 1980-2000
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On 23/07/2021 at 08:15, The PIT said:
Sunny Sheffield up to 18.9C +2.6C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.
Possibly the high spot of the month with only a small decline probably until the end of the month.
I would imagine it's not only a high spot of the month for Sheffield, but right up there in the highest spots ever seen?
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26 minutes ago, carinthian said:
I hope there is nothing definite about this long term chart from GFS. However some consistency in its runs showing a southerly tracking jet. This bodes for a period of unsettled conditions in August, especially in Southern Britain and the continent. Who would bet against early frost in Scotland ?
C
Did you ever find the source of the claim from sometime back that predicted a cool August for north west Europe? Looks very close to the money judging by this!
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Clouding over here now from the east.....is that it for the sustained sunshine for some time?
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14 hours ago, mushymanrob said:
But why are the background drivers less clear in summer? They are the same ones apart from the strat influence..
Ive not noticed any different in the anomaly accuracy ..
Talking of which, the latest arent an exact match for yesterdays, but still have a strong greenland high and that is not good news for summer
Sod the rest of summer, I'm gonna start getting excited for winter!
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14.8C and 105mm please
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On 20/07/2021 at 12:44, Timmytour said:
The big standoff at the moment seems to be the Models v St Swithin......
I think it looks like St Swithin's is losing!
If the modelled change of weather at the end of this week for the worse comes off, it will in my opinion follow the pattern that I've noticed over the past 15 years of so (just going by gut feel I hasten to add)
It seems to be that this time of year, coinciding with the schools breaking up for summer, has often seen a marked change in the weather to a pattern that sticks around for a while - like a mini verion of St Swithins.
Unfortunately the change is more often than not for the worse...-
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The big standoff at the moment seems to be the Models v St Swithin......
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Gorgeous day out there and a nick week in prospect. More's the pity I can't go out in it beyond my back garden! I can guarantee it will all change next Sunday when I can!
Taking my washing off the line earlier was like taking it out of a tumble dryer!
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Model output discussion 11th July onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I think there's room for both if it's mooted that things are looking a whole lot better for the second half of August.
I'd expect the anomalies to be picking this up in the next couple of days if that's the case....