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Timmytour

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Posts posted by Timmytour

    Spring 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    15 hours ago, damianslaw said:

    A more traditional spring this year in terms of timing of leaf appearance and general growth, we've become accustomed to very early starts by and large, with some exceptions, 2010, 2013 notably so and 2018. I remember back to 1996 that was a very late start - barely any green growth well into May.

     

    Just today I noticed two trees in the field next to where I live which have barely any green on them as yet.  I wish I'd got a picture of them at the start of December to show the contrast!

    April 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Earthshine said:

    Yep cold belongs in winter.  Especially now with pubs and cafes openeing I think we all deserve some warmer weather after what has been an absolutely horrid winter.

    You just know that after last year's perfect weather for sitting outside a pub when we weren't allow to go to the pub, it won't warm up until 17th May when, after five weeks of freezing our KPs outside the pub,  we are finally allowed to go inside it!

    • Like 3

    2020 officially saw a record number of $1 billion weather and climate disasters.

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    I find such figures unthrilling.   The amount of money a disaster costs is not indicative of how worse present disasters are compared to previous ones.

    It's been thirty years since we have had a volcano erupt with a VEI of  6 or more.   The Icelandic one in 2010 was only  a relatively small one but the costs associated with it were probably more significant than Mount Pinatubo.

    Does it mean volcanos are getting worse?   Most definitely not!

    Today Swiss Re have come out with a report that suggests global GDP could drop 18% by 2050 without climate mitigation action with economies in Asia set to be hardest hit.

    When companies start buying up frozen wasteland in Greenland I start to believe in climate change making as much of a dramatic impact as we keep being told it will make.

     

     

     

    Annual CET

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    On 11/03/2021 at 02:28, Relativistic said:

    It almost certainly won't be as cool as April or July 1713 this year. The last time the respective months were as cold were in 1922 and 1965. The other months are doable but it's hard to sustain prolonged below-average periods these days (the last time we did have such a period was precisely three centuries after 1713).

    Looking at the current models, it's a good job you said "it almost certainly won't" and not "it will never be" !  

    • Like 3

    La Soufriere Volcano

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    La Soufriere Volcano in St Vincent has exploded into life causing havoc for those in St Vincent and even impacting the sunshine and beautiful beaches of Barbados.

     

    Its last three explosions were in 1812, 1902 and 1979

    The average annual CET for the ten years preceding each explosion was greater than for the ten years of and succeeding the explosion.

    I wonder if the comparison of annual CETs for 2021-2030 against 2011-2020 will make it four times in a row? 

     

    • Like 3

    April 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    6 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

    6.2c to the 6th

    0.3c below the 61 to 90 average
    1.4c below the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 8.8c on the 1st
    Current low this month 6.2c on the 6th

    Tumbling!

    I think I went about 7.7C for this month.  If my recent form is anything to go by, expect to see that as the figure to the 27th, followed by a warm up to 8.5C by the end of the month!

    • Like 2

    Going Early With A Winter 2021 - 2022 Prediction

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I am throwing caution to the wind now.

    This is as a result of being flushed with success over my Easter prediction made two months in time which nearly came good, and the feeling that I am, at last, on a roll!  (Warning, the roll may have already stopped!)

    What I am looking at now is how comfortable high pressure is beginning to look over Greenland.  So I am rushing into making this prediction.  It will be a feature for many months to come.  It will wax and wane to some extent but generally have establish a strong presence that will endure to the end of the year and beyond and will rarely be interrupted. I'm not sure, or predicting what this will mean for summer, though I would expect the odd plume or two to develop.  i think we could end up having a particularly mild October.  But here's what I mainly predict

    Winter 2021 - 2022 will be a memorable one for those that love the cold and the snow

    It will be one that sets in earlier than any we have seen for the previous 10 winters and will rival 2010 for severity, and surpass it for longevity. There will be Murr sausages enough for everyone!

    If I have ever previously made predictions about winter, I've been more inclined to be pessimistic than anything else.  But this time I have this feeling in my bones already. I shall spend the summer on Amazon and Ebay, snapping up cheap sledges!

     

     

    • Like 4

    Model output discussion 10/02/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

    .............. looks like @bluearmys words of caution to me yesterday were well founded as REALLY frustratingly the anomalies have backed down from the milder southern high pressure prediction yesterday. What pees me off is that 80% of the time they are bang on or close to "right" and the time they arent is the time we really need them to be right. This cold is killing wildlife, sadly.

    Those damn anomalies are always, but always, spot on in the winter months when they suggest it will be mild as the GFS  10-day and even 5-day outlooks are promising us an English Lapland! 

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion 10/02/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    another anomaly vs op battle is emerging, because the noaa charts do not support the gfs re-load of the northerlies a la 1975 style via high pressure to our west after next weekend

     

    814day_03warm.gif

    I'm rooting for your anomalies mmr.... I want to be sitting in the pub garden with just a t-shirt on instead of having to dig out the ski gear I bought last year from deep deep storage!  

    • Like 4

    April 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

    First projections for April

    AprilProj1.thumb.png.25299713e25bf15ed4e4034748cb4eb4.png  AprilProb1.thumb.png.5f0065c1819922d9742ca8edb91b6e0f.png

    The chances of finishing:
    Close to average (8.5C to 9.5C) is 22.2% 
    Above average (>9.5C) is 6.0% 
    Below average (<8.5C) is 71.8% 

    GFS for the 1st to 6th looks like averaging about 5.8C, or 2.3C above the 91-20 average

    I look at the models and think below average.

    I look at this, remember the last two months, and think something above 10.5C has to be the form horse!

    • Like 2

    March 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    On 08/03/2021 at 12:19, BornFromTheVoid said:

    Latest update

    Mar8Project.thumb.png.ccbd78c6a9c76a323f0470d8b6b3bfe1.png Mar8Pob.thumb.png.ae158e59b9686720bc5a05e5a9e46493.png

    The chances of finishing:
    Close to average (6.2 to 7.2C) is to 29.4% (4 days ago was 23.8%)
    Above average (>7.2C) is to 2.8% (4 days ago was 3.6%)
    Below average (<6.2C) is to 67.7% (4 days ago was 72.6%)

    GFS for the 8th to 13th looks like averaging about 6.2C, or 0.5C below the 91-20 average

     

    8 hours ago, Relativistic said:

    And it's mad how so many people assume they know -- or are at least very confident of -- the outcome of a month when there are 14+ days left. Not singling anyone out here, as such comments have been made on these threads for years.

     

    Not just people.....the models are guilty of it too!!! 

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion 10/02/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

    Daily temperature record thats stood since 1927 appears to have gone, twas 23.9, 24c recorded at Hillingdon?

    Based on what Karl is showing above,  the next monthly record to go could be the lowest daily mean CET for an April day (since 1878).....if the 5th ends up colder than the 0.5C registered in 1917. 

    • Like 4

    Model output discussion 10/02/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    In the last 142 years there has only been two occasions on which the mean CET for the 5th April has been more than 7C lower than for the 1st April.

    Oddly they occurred in successive years...1989 and 1990.

    The models make it look as it this year is going to have a good go at making it the third such occasion.

     

    • Like 3
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