Timmytour
-
Posts
3,169 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
1
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Timmytour
-
-
3 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:
Towards the 192 hour mark you can see the improvement.
Really like this,
I guess as long as that low that travels from west to east of Greenland stays hugging its coast, things will continue to look positive. I wouldn't be enormously surprised however if at least some of its energy gets thrown a lot closer to the UK in the process than shown above.....-
3
-
-
On 02/06/2021 at 13:47, Timmytour said:
From a purely selfish point of view I'm not hoping for a hot June, not just becasue it would scupper my CET prediction, but frustratingly I have not used the past few months to lose the few stone I could do with losing, and, as a result, I know the heat would be uncomfortable!
I must admit however the models aren't holding out a lot of hope for me at present. However I'm pinning my hopes on the recent solar flares that recently glanced us to start mixing up things and produce a change that the models will hook onto in the next couple of daysLooks like GFS op is picking up quicker than ECM on the changes brought about by the recent solar flare grazing....would expect ECM and other GFS ensembles to have taken this into consideration by tomorrow morning's runs <wild speculation on my part!>
-
I agree RJS that 3% might be excessive, but remember that even after a mild first five days of February when the average Daily CET (5.4C) was even higher than the monthly CET ended up being (5.1C), the percentage for February to get above 4.9C was already down to 8%......!!!
-
1 hour ago, 38.7°C said:
GFS 12z looks like a downgrade temps not as eye catching as previous runs for warmth. Still dry though.
It's just the start....
5 hours ago, Timmytour said:However I'm pinning my hopes on the recent solar flares that recently glanced us to start mixing up things and produce a change that the models will hook onto in the next couple of days
<evil laugh>
-
1
-
-
3 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:
First projection for June
The chances of finishing:
Close to average (14.2C to 15.2C) is at 37.3%
Above average (>15.2C) is at 45.8%
Below average (<14.2C) is at 16.9%The period of the 2nd to the 7th is forecast to average 16.6C, 2.8C above the 91-20 average.
I'm really surprised at that below average percentage. Would expect to see that fall to less than 3% by the end of this week....
-
1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
The worst for here is, if it is positioned to the NE, or anywhere to the NW or W, dragging filth in from the north sea
From a purely selfish point of view I'm not hoping for a hot June, not just becasue it would scupper my CET prediction, but frustratingly I have not used the past few months to lose the few stone I could do with losing, and, as a result, I know the heat would be uncomfortable!
I must admit however the models aren't holding out a lot of hope for me at present. However I'm pinning my hopes on the recent solar flares that recently glanced us to start mixing up things and produce a change that the models will hook onto in the next couple of days-
1
-
-
Good job I'm not being stalked by anyone in denial that Climate Change exists and is warming up our climate dramatically! Otherwise they would no doubt be quickly latching onto such posts of mine as the following posted in the Annual CET thread!!!!
Anyway, as I think has already been noted, the rolling twelve month mean CET has now fallen below 10C . I wonder when the next time it will rise above 10C will be? By my reckoning it would require a June of 1976 proportions to get us back to 10C. That would certainly be something as I don't think we've had any other June apart from 1976 in over 160 years that would do the trick! Although curiously there were SIX of them in the preceding 100 years that would do the trick!!
-
Not so much a year, but in the decade 1790 to 1799, the month of April produced three of its ever coldest months (ie in the coldest 10% of Aprils) while also producing five of its warmest months!
Of the 22 Aprils since 1659 that have had a mean CET of 10C or more, 4 of them came in that 1770-79 decade, 4 of them came in the 1940-49 decade, and 5 of them have come this century.... the four periods alone accounting for nearly 60% of such Aprils.
-
2
-
-
1 hour ago, Frigid said:
Wouldn't surprise me to see the warmest UK June for 45 years from looking at the models. Reminiscent of June 18
I hope you are right though the last time we started a year with five months delivering an aggregate monthly mean CET of less than 33C (this year is 31.9C) with a flamin' June was in 1970 and that followed a very warm May.
We are due a warm June I suppose. I think it's a remarkable month for CET. Since 1970 we have had six Junes that have have registered in the top ten percent of warmest Junes, registering a mean of 15.7C or more. But, very much against the tendency of recent decades, we have had in that time the same number of month that have registered in the top ten percent of coldest Junes as well, coming in at 13C or below.And while the warmest June in all that time (1976) was still a full 1.2C below the warmest June of all time (1846) , the June of 1972 was the coldest June there has been in the last 335 years, only 0.3C warmer than 1675 and as cold as 1909 and 1916.
Seems to be a nice monthly mean CET correlation between 1972 and 2021 at present....
But before anyone gets worried, the max CET in June 1972 only reached 18C on two days so I think that's blown out of the water already!!
-
4
-
1
-
-
50 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:
I think anyone thinking that a sub 9*C annual CET is possible for 2021 is asking too much, as at this stage of 2021 so far, it would require something like a second half like 1993, or a repeat of Dec 2010 at the end of the year, both of which are very unlikely.
One point of note worth mentioning is that the rolling 12 month CET up to the end of May 2021, following the cool April and May we have just had, now stands at 9.87*C. I believe that this is the first time since autumn 2015 that the rolling CET has gone under 10*C.
Not so sure anything particularly out of the ordinary is required, hence my comparison to 1915. While it did deliver us a cool July and a cold November, the average across Nov and December was nothing remarkable . And this year has already given us the coldest May and April in many years so the coldest July for 33 years couldn't be ruled out!
-
1
-
-
The coldest UK May for 25 years following on from the coldest UK April for 35 years.
Is Covid doing the business for us on climate change? :)-
1
-
-
A comparison of Daily Max CETs between 2021 (no of days) and the average of all other years of this century
-
2
-
2
-
-
On 01/05/2021 at 13:55, Timmytour said:
Updating this comparison of 1915 v 2021
It will be going some to get under the 9C mark as only 4 years where that was achieved have had a four month start that has been warmer than this year .... 1676, 1813, 1817 and 1890.
1915 remains the closest to it and was just 0.3C colder in its aggregate monthly mean CETS upto April. So we would need a year that carries on in a vein slightly colder than 1915. 1915 had a cool July and a cold November, but noting too untoward other than those two months.
Coming in at 10.1C, May has been by no means a let down in the quest for a sub 9C Annual Mean CET , and the overall comparisons with 1915 remain good, though there seems to be no correlation in the daily pattern of weather.
May 1915 ended on a very cool note, precisely the opposite of May 2021. But 1915 produced a June that was, while not particularly warm, was not outside the general average, so the warm start that June 2021 is making is not causing any undue alarm to the Seekers of the Sub 9C Brigade!
-
1
-
-
25 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:
Completely agree .... we are here to view and discuss what the models are showing, not to ignore and change because that will come whether we talk about it or not.
tbh i dont see how it cannot be ignored...Not sure if this is meant to say a potential breakdown can't be ignored, or the double negative is designed to portray your confidence that it can be ignored!
I like the thought of the latter to which I think you and JH have been alluding of late
-
1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:
The GEFS 12z mean looks jolly decent in the near future / mid future / longer future!! ...more ridgy / less troughy! ...some cracking perturbations too!...fingers crossed
Let's hope it's at least close to the mark. But I can't help thinking Karl, you've had your fingers crossed for so long now they might well be stuck like that!
-
2
-
-
Rolling thirty year average of aggregate mean CETs for each season from 1688
All seasons showing a definite uptick for the past few decades
The rolling 30 year averages as a percentage of the overall average (1659 - 2020)
The biggest impact by some way is on the winter season. It's not good news for the many of this forum who are lovers of cold and snow as well and hot and sunny because the season that appears to have responded the least is summer. The consistency of summer is fairly remarkable when compared to the other seasons, with all years falling within a band of fractionally over 8 percentage points (between 96.3% to 104.5%), whereas spring and autumn span a range of over 20 percentage points and winter over 56 percentage points
The rises that have taken place have been most notable in the last 30 years. In fact the rolling 30 years average means for Spring and Summer in 1991 were pretty much bag on the overall 332 year average. This cold Spring may have come as a bit of shock to us as we have been getting so used to our Springs getting warmer of late....
-
1
-
1
-
-
10 minutes ago, Relativistic said:
I'm guessing you mean two months (being April and May). Over the entire record, only the Spring of 1837 has managed an aggregate below 17C.
Not my intention but that's what I did! It's so obvious an error when pointed out, so my apologies!
So a CET of 10.5C would give us an aggregate of 24.1C for the three months. The second coldest of this century after 2013 which contained that remarkably cold March, but also a May which only made 10.4C.
Before that such cold springs were not that uncommon. Only 1996 in the nineties but there were four consecutive years in the 1980s that were colder
-
2
-
-
1 hour ago, Stevew said:
Interesting to note the predominance of low temperatures for much of the spring. How might 2021 CET for March-May compare to other cold springs?
The warm up in March probably saves it from records. The aggregate monthly mean CET for the three months has only fallen below 17C five times since 1900. If we get a mean CET of 10.5C for May, this year will make it six times. It will be the first time since 1986 and using this measure no Spring since 1941 would have been colder.
Incidentally, if we get a mean CET of 10.6C for May, the aggregate for the three months will be exactly 17C. This hasn't occurred since 1680..... we could get it for the first time in 341 years!-
2
-
2
-
-
14.5C and 56mm please
-
42 minutes ago, Britneyfan said:
Models will always chop and change each run, the more they do that the more uncertainty there is, and they are also at the bottom end of the ensembles, who knows this evenings run could show something completely different, don’t take each model run too seriously
So true....I mean look at a couple of weeks ago when people were moaning about what the models were showing then and look what we've ended up with!!!!!
Tbh I rarely see anyone on here outside of winter take one model run as gospel.... any sense of pessimism on here I would put down to what they are seeing the models put up consistently and pretty much in accordance with each other. Yes of course it can all change and there's not a soul on here who I would think doesn't recognise that, but they are commenting on what the models are showing more than what they want them to show.-
1
-
-
1 hour ago, Alderc said:
It’s really not a good position if such a pool heat gets locked in so early to the east. Without getting ahead of ourselves it could really tricky for that pattern to shift.
maybe we can expect a nice June, a not-so-nice rest of the summer and a cracking November and December! :)
-
1
-
-
On 16/02/2021 at 20:00, Timmytour said:
Will we ever get an annual CET below 9C again? It might be argued that climate change will have put paid to it, but I'm not so sure. Such years seem to come in clusters. Mot recently we've had 1979 / 1985 / 1986 and before that 1956 / 1962 / 1963 .... a remarkably similar sequence of successive years following a six year wait! The latter cluster was more impressive with another such year registering just two years later in 1965
While 2010 was the last time we had such a year, which ended a run of 23 years and we are now currently on a run of 10 years. But 1956 marked the end of a 33 year run while 1979 marked the end of an 13 year run so perhaps the run we are on isn't completely out of the "new" normal. But prior to 1956 the longest ever such wait had been 14 years, culminating in the winters of 1740 and 1879.
In earlier years there is undoubtedly a greater frequency of them, not just I suspect the respect of the cooler climate that existed back then, but also down to things like volcanic actions. While there were a couple of VEI 5 volcanic eruptions around 1955 to 1957 I can't pinpoint a similar reasons for the cluster that began in 1979. Maybe the eruptions of the Icelandic volcano in late March and early April 2010 had an impact on that particular year, but it had already started on a pretty cold note.
I think we will see one in the none too distant future....and perhaps a small cluster of them. The combined CET for Jan and Feb looks like it might end up cooler than it was in 1962 despite the milder end to February currently showing on the models, so it's possible that this could be the year!
If we end up failing to get an annual mean CET below 9C this year, I don't think, looking at the current modelling, that I will be blaming May for it!
-
2
-
-
4 hours ago, Snow Shoes said:
I think there is a risk that those predictions could now be largely off-set by the effects of the increasingly weakening Gulf Stream (with potential in the future for temperatures in UK to steadily decline )
Weakest Gulf Stream in 1,000 years could bring more 'extreme' winters to UK and Europe, says study
NEWS.SKY.COMScientists say there has been a dramatic slowdown in the flow of ocean currents that play a vital part in the world's climate...
I think I'd be more inclined to believe this had the winters of the last thirty years not been considerably warmer than the winters of the previous thirty years...The average monthly CET for the months of December, January and February is over 0.85C greater for winters beginning 1991 to 2000 than it was for 1960 to 1990. The corresponding increase for the months of June, July and August by comparison is only 0.7C.
-
1 hour ago, DCee said:
Very grim 2021 so far and no change for the rest of the month. This is the worse i have ever seen for warmth and projected warmth.
Global warming certainly doesnt help the UK with warmth or longer settled periods thats for sure. More energy in the system leads to less seasons. Feels like we are moving to two seasons; spring and autumn. So less cold in winter and less prolonged warmth in summer.
Future doesnt bode well for UK weather.
That weather we had for the best part of three months last year just after lockdown was introduced, including one of the warmest Aprils on record, must have all been a figment of my imagination!!
-
1
-
June 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
1978 provides us with an example of how a June can go downhill very quickly. A lovely first four days in which the mean averaged nearly 18.5C turned into a month which, a week later, gave a rare June day outside of the first ten days in which the daily mean did not exceed 10C.