Timmytour
-
Posts
3,169 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
1
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Timmytour
-
-
12 hours ago, Weather-history said:
The first half of 2021 has been pretty similiar to that of 1966
1996 2.9 5.7 6.5 7.2 11.0 15.4
2021 3.1 5.1 7.2 6.4 10.1 15.5
July 1966 had a CET of 15.0C....
Certainly been very similar since the middle of May......
-
5
-
-
June marks the 7th successive month without a mean CET registering in it top 10% warmest. That's the longest run we've had since the first seven months of 2016. While both November and December 2015 registered in their warmest 10%, they signalled the end of a run of 11 months from December 2014 without a "warm" month.
We also saw a "cold" month (ie one registering in its coldest 10%) in April. The last time we saw seven months without a warm month that also included a cold month was back in 2013. The very cold March of that year marked the 12th month in a row without a warm month and was followed by another three to register a run of 15 months without one being warm.... the longest such run since the 18 months that started in May 1987.
-
2
-
1
-
-
4 hours ago, The PIT said:
Sunny Sheffield finished on 16.1C +1.4C above normal. Rainfall 23.3mm 30.3% of the monthly average
So a warm very dry month 8th warmest on our records and 10th driest on records since 1955.
How often do you guys finish above the national mean?
-
On 24/06/2021 at 20:25, Jon Snow said:
My advice is never take any operational as gospel!..but by the same token, never take any perturbations as gospel!... ...so the lesson is, never take any chart as gospel...hope that helps! ...on the other hand, early July might be really summery?
Loving the optimism Karl but the start of July was pushed to early July and now it's "not far into July" waiting for those green shoots!
I think restrictions on Covid might get removed first at this rate!-
6
-
-
23 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:
Right folks its a bit Meh at present, the sun hardly made and appearance here since last Wednesday! And the week ahead is shall we say usable....But I feel things should start to improve towards the weekend and more so into next week. This mornings ECM is a peach and it's also backed up by the mean..Forget what GFS shows its clueless...running 4 times a day make it a big show-off!! Ohhhh....look at me I run more than any other model
A little patience required good people, it won't be long before we are locked and loaded for another cracking spell...Trust me @Alderc you will be swinging from the palm trees before much longer mate
Have a top week..get ya beers in for tomorrow night...no dramas,no pressure...no problamo...
I love the optimism of the post.....I hope it works more effectively in summer than it does in winter!! :)
-
7
-
1
-
-
It will certainly take a long time to assess any real long term impact from this, thought the mean CETS from April and May could be seen as a good start for the hypothesis!!!
The first half of June definitely bucked that trend however.... I'm still hoping there is some substance in the theory but it comes in the form of colder winters! -
We seem to be undergoing a little cooling down that seems traditional at this time of year....
-
3
-
-
Going early with a cool and wet shout!
14.9C and 111mm for me please.....
-
23 hours ago, Scorcher said:
108 hours of sunshine here for the first half which is comfortably above average around here- I believe the June average for the month is around 173 hours.
It's certainly quite a bit sunnier than 2007 which has been singled out as another good first half.
Average max of 22C as well which again is well above average for the first half of the month around here.
To me consistently warm is more important than high maxima. Our highest here this month is 25.5C which isn't exceptional but almost every day has reached 20C- only 2 days so far haven't managed it. Much better than some past Junes that had short plumes but were mostly cool otherwise- June 2000 is a prime example. 2019 is another.
The consistent warmth and sunshine without persistent humidity is what will make it memorable for me.
Especially in the year it has taken place......one where I am working from home instead of a London office and so can nip out in the garden for sessions before 12pm and after 2pm to get a bit of colour on myself!-
2
-
-
Struck by the need to turn on lights in the house this morning! It's like the first morning back after being on holiday!
-
1
-
-
16 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:
The current EWP is around 10 mm and the ten-day forecast is about 50 mm, with another 10-20 mm potential in days 11-15. That would get us most of the way to 80 mm for the month.
Current CET projections would see the average falling slowly after mid-week, to the high 15s possibly by end of the month, although low 16s still quite plausible as the degree of cooling is rather slight overall.
I think there's a good chance CET stays above 16C now as you indicate....although daytime temperatures are set to drop by a view degrees, there's nothing untoward in the night time temperatures sufficient enough to pull the mean down by much.
-
On 13/06/2021 at 20:13, East Lancs Rain said:
Why’s that?
Yep, as RJS pointed out that was a confusion of 30 with 13 on my part! Apologies
-
Just looking at the Sheffield v National experience,,,,,,don't often see the former exceed the latter at all let alone by over a half of a degree centigrade.
Could kind of sum up this month...... in CET terms it might end up unremarkably in the mid 15c range, but for those of us on the eastern side of the country, particularly further south, it will live long in pleasant memories I suspect -
Astonishing that it didn't even set a record for the day. Being out in it certainly gave the impression that it would have broken the 30C barrier.
-
1
-
-
Managed to get a little sunshine this morning for the eclipse, but not sure I managed to capture it....
-
2
-
-
The Solar eclipse is stunning! The sky has turned white!
-
4
-
-
From September 1729 to August 1739 there were 21 months that registered mean CETs that fall in the all time warmest 10% for the months concerned, and just one that features in the coldest 10%
In a similar time-frame, from June 2011 to May 2021, the same figures are 38 in the warmest and 2 in the coldest.
Given the time that has elapsed and the warming that has undergone since, I'd say the period in the 18th Century stacks up pretty well!
Which makes me wonder how it all changed so dramatically? The numbers of cold months in the same period following August 1739 was 20, while warm months only mustered 5.
What produced such a difference? Could it have been to do with the plinian eruption of Mount Tarumae in Hokkaido, Japan. in August of 1739 with the relative frequency and severity of subsequent volcanic eruptions keeping temperatures subdued for some time?
Could it happen again?-
1
-
-
I personally hope it survives.....and a few of the latest model runs maybe suggest that enough cloud will persist to keep the max on the day off its own record let alone 30C!
I'm all for quirky records......if it gets to 30C on 30th june then I reckon 50% of the entrants for the December CET comp will be going for 5.9C
-
1
-
-
On 02/06/2021 at 13:12, BornFromTheVoid said:
First projection for June
The chances of finishing:
Close to average (14.2C to 15.2C) is at 37.3%
Above average (>15.2C) is at 45.8%
Below average (<14.2C) is at 16.9%The period of the 2nd to the 7th is forecast to average 16.6C, 2.8C above the 91-20 average.
On 02/06/2021 at 17:09, Timmytour said:I'm really surprised at that below average percentage. Would expect to see that fall to less than 3% by the end of this week....
On 08/06/2021 at 12:12, BornFromTheVoid said:Latest projection for June
The chances of finishing:
Close to average (14.2C to 15.2C) is to 28.1% (2 days ago was 38.6%)
Above average (>15.2C) is to 71.5% (2 days ago was 56.2%)
Below average (<14.2C) is to 0.4% (2 days ago was 5.2%)The period of the 8th to the 13th is forecast to average 17.7C, 3.6C above the 91-20 average.
Took a bit longer than I envisaged.....but it got there and some!
-
Much as I speculated on tomorrow's eclipse having the effect of a butterfly wing on sustained warm and dry weather that was previously being modelled, I'm inclined to think it could equally have an uplifting effect on the weather currently being modelled for next week, whether that is viewed as reasonable or worse than before sliced bread was invented!
-
1
-
-
There will be a partial solar eclipse for much of the Northern hemisphere this Thursday. (I think much of the UK will be impacted from about lunchtime for two or three hours, though to no significant degree).
I wonder what impact, if any, this would have on the max temps for a day on which occurs, especially when it happens at peak heat time!
Moreover, could there be any 'butterfly wing' impact upon the atmosphere as a result of the partial blocking of the sun which could give rise to a whole different set of modeled outcomes for our weather post Thursday?-
5
-
-
Bit taken aback by the rain late last night. I thought we'd esCAPEd the thunderstorms mentioned as possible for late afternoon, but ti seems they decided to arrive a lot later instead!
-
The last 20 days of June lay either side of the longest day. 13th June has not only failed to provide a daily max of 30C or more, it's also provided us with the coldest daily mean of all the 20 days in the last 50 years...with 9.6C in 1978.
(50 years includes this year....however 15th June 1971 was colder!)-
3
-
-
16 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:
Looking further into the GEFS 6z crystal ball!!...the mean improves significantly again following a bit of a wobble, the Azores high flexes its muscles again and well into June the generally summery theme continues..possibly beyond mid month which is as far as we should realistically look?...in my opinion!...anyway, there’s some great output again today, for example, the ECM 0z ensemble mean / op turns into an anticyclonic epic... fingers crossed for much more of the current weather during the next two weeks +!!!
?
Looks good.....what we don't want is a 1978 situation where a lobe of high pressure cuts off and drifts north and east over the UK .
After a lovely first few days to the month, the 13th June 1978 bought us this which gave the UK a daily mean CET of under 10C !! (since which the 18th in 1991 is the only June day outside its first ten days to register below 10C)
-
3
-
July 1934
in Historic Weather
Posted
Imagine high pressure like that staying on the scene all year.....it could provide us with a rerun of 1962-63 (Weather's equivalent of "it's coming home!")
Alternatively it could slip south provide us with one of the warmest Decembers ever, such as happened later in the same year when December 1934 came up with a mean CET of 0.4C above anything else that had been previously recorded for a December, and a record that was not beaten until 2015.