Timmytour

I can hear Mama Cass singing "it's getting better"!

I can understand how it might be cold enough for the hail that has fallen around Man City's ground before the game to still be hanging around, but I would have thought that on the pitch at least the undersoil heating would have put paid to it?

Apologies....repeating this post from the April CET as it may be something I'd want to come back to check on its progress and it would get lost in there (mind you I may be happy to see it get lost by the end of this month!)

mmm...a few days to use up as holiday this year and the last full week of May is tempting me. More views of improvements like this might lead me to jump the gun and go for it!

A little table of values of monthly mean CETs of May to December from years that are not far removed in aggregate terms for January to April from where we are at the moment, followed by picks for the rest of this year that could end up in an annual CET of under 9C For a couple of years I've shaved a few points off to allow for the fact that there is not otherwise enough leverage to bring the overall CET below 9c I've shown where the monthly mean is either part of its coldest 10% or its warmest 10%. I've then tried to look at the values in 2021 for the rest of the year that could bring us an annual CET under 9C . It's unlikely we will get another month that joins April as a coldest 10% member bearing in mind we've only had three such months all century and the last year we had more than once such month was in 1991 when both February and June registered in their coldest 10%. So while the picks used for the rest of the year are never really particularly warm, they are avoiding the extremely cold options....

You guys are showing a distinct lack of ambition. In the Annual CET thread I've been wondering if we could get below 9C this year :)

Updating this comparison of 1915 v 2021 It will be going some to get under the 9C mark as only 4 years where that was achieved have had a four month start that has been warmer than this year .... 1676, 1813, 1817 and 1890. 1915 remains the closest to it and was just 0.3C colder in its aggregate monthly mean CETS upto April. So we would need a year that carries on in a vein slightly colder than 1915. 1915 had a cool July and a cold November, but noting too untoward other than those two months.

April 2021 is the first month since March 2013 to register in the coldest 10% of mean CET's for the month Along with December 2010 it is only the third such month this century to register in its coldest 10%

Coldest four month start to a year for 8 years and 8th coldest start to a year since 1990. The last time there were two successive starts that were colder was in 1986 and 1987, so next year could bring an end to a 35 year run. Remarkable when you consider that in the 10 years between and including 1978 and 1987, only 1981 and 1982 were warmer!

I'm definitely going for a CET of 5.9C for December this year.....

I expect May will finish a few points above 10C, but its remarkable how - in the 20th century - a May with a mean CET of less than 10C used to come along once every decade, but no more than once every decade! Normally these infrequent occurences usually turn up - when they do - with some clustering associated with them. 1902 8.9C 1923 9.2C 1935 9.9C 1941 9.4C 1955 9.7C 1968 9.8C 1975 9.9C 1984 9.9C 1996 9.1C Only the "onesies" missed out last century as they did again this century. But the "noughties" also missed out this year giving us the longest wait for a sub-10C May we've had since the start of the 20th Century. That said we did have a wait of 22 years near the start of the 20th, so perhaps we are due one this year to end a 25 year drought? I'll be gutted I didn't change my guess if that's what happens!!! And though before 1900 they came along on a far more regular basis, it's worth remembering that exactly 300 years ago we got a sub 10C May which was the first one of the 18th century.......

What is the optimum Annual CET for the UK? Obviously we have seen it increase considerably in the latter years, and no doubt this corresponds with the increase in global temperatures. I'm not sure how far back the measurement of global temperatures goes back, but thanks to the UK mean annual CET records we can see how the rolling 30 year average annual CET has increased dramatically since the early 1980s... The rise in the last 40 years measures almost 0.8C - almost as dramatic as the rise that took place in the 40 year period in the years between 1700 and 1739 during which the rise measured almost as much as a 1C The rolling 30 year mean reached a peak in 1739 that was not reached again until 1947. The average in 1739 - a high point for over 250 years, was similar to what it was in 1981 - which has now become the low point of the last 40 years. Where we are currently in terms of annual CET is aligned to fears about the earth getting too warm. But I wonder what the reaction of anybody tracking the CETS during the years of the earlier 18th century would have been? Was that known to have also corresponded with an increase in global temperatures? Would, given similar measuring and communication abilities, the period have sparked off fears about the earth warming up too much back then? If it were possible for man to control overall global temperatures by setting the rolling 30 year average annual mean CET for the UK, where would you set it? I'm tempted to go with where it was in 1700 to increase the chances of getting my favourite type of weather, but I guess pitching it around the levels it was in 1739 and 1981 would be about right......

Worth remembering at this stage after a cold April and a cool outlook for the start of May, that 1983 provided us with an equally cold April and a cool May as well as a cool June. But boy how it made up for it in the July and August of that year!!!

My technical reading of this is that we can expect a warm up (in the sense it will be of any significance) around the 17th May. This is based on the assumption we will be allowed back inside the pubs on that date and that's just how the weather Gods roll :)

I did too. But I'm sure she would have covered it. She usually covers all bases :)

Sorry cos I know BFTV is right, but one final comment on this from me.... but are global temperatures rising to the degree they are (not doubted by me) because of the relative lack of volcanic activity? In other words would the rises we are seeing now have been activated in the late 19th century had it had as little volcanic activity as the 20th century saw? Back on CET... We had three Aprils with a mean CET of 6.2C in the five years from 1887.......not something I'd be wishing for now!!

Well that put me in my place! What exactly is "it" supposed to be in this context? I know the explosions of Mount Tambora in 1815 and Krakatau’ in 1883 were supposed to have had an impact on the climate worldwide. Perhaps as a climate scientist you could clarify whether or not it did? And if they did reduce temperatures, does that mean the world would be warmer by the amount they did, if the explosions had not taken place? Or, alternatively,if such explosions had taken place in the similar stages of the 20th century, would the earth still be as warm as it is now?

Did she not put up a post some time ago that suggested April could be dry and relatively cool?

The science of climate change has never changed. The extent to which is has been discovered has. I'm sure that is much more to discover in regard to volcanos, but of course there is relatively little recent experience to collate data on and test theories out since the ways of measuring impacts became feasible. Exploring the relationship between the levels of Sulpher Dioxide expelled by volcanos - which is not related to their VEI - is in its relative infancy with a paper published in 2014 suggesting a link to climatic conditions. The Manaro Voui volcano on the island of Ambae in the nation of Vanuatu in the South Pacific Ocean injected three times the amount of sulphur dioxide into the upper troposphere and stratosphere than all combined worldwide eruptions in 2017. Yet it won't be known how much was expelled into the air in say the 1930s and 1940s when the earth apparently cooled for 20-25 years. I think the CET records of the UK are great and there is no question they show a considerable warming from the late 1980s onwards. I will listen and take note of what scientists discover, but will always exercise a little caution into buying into their conclusions, especially when they are based on new ways we have to measure stuff that was never measured before. The next scientific discovery is always just around the corner and can sometimes contrast with conclusions drawn from a previous discovery.

May 1833 is not one any of us would have experienced, but must have been quite a bizarre month because, to this day, it still remains comfortably over 1C above the next nearest mean CET for the month. In fact the month of May, similar to June has its top 5 CET months all dating more than 170 years ago, but 1833 stands out almost to the same degree as December 2015 does, and perhaps is more remarkable for not being of the present warming era ..

No one's talking about ignoring science. I've not seen much scientific evidence to suggest that any actions we undertake would stop or reverse the changes that are taking place. I personally believe a couple of volcanic explosions of 6 on the VEI scale will do 100 times more to reverse global warming more than the globally pooled resources of man could achieve in 40 years. I am reminded of the media frenzy about how Man discovered the hole in the ozone layer, how Man detemined Man was responsible for it, how Man identified what Man had to do to repair it and how Man lauded Man for shrinking it. Forty years later on from Man discovering it we learn that actually Nature plays a huge part in it, and that last year was the biggest the hole has ever been measured to be!! So why has all that hype about how dangerous it would be for man died down???? A comment was made in here that our current weather conditions may be a result of the lack of aviation activity in particular. As Roger says, while here is not the place best to address such an issue, it would be foolish to assume such a thing. Just, as I am sure, any climate scientist would vehemently deny that just because all five of the warmest Junes we have had happened more than 44 years ago and four of them happened more than 175 years ago, it means that things are not getting warmer now.......

I imagine quite a few of us in here recall a time when the world was doomed if Man did not take action to stop the hole in the Ozone layer he had discovered Man had caused from getting bigger. My recall of it is hazy I fully admit, but you do come across sights like this that give praise for the way the world came together to take decisive action... Back from the brink: how the world rapidly sealed a deal to save the ozone layer WWW.RAPIDTRANSITION.ORG As a chorus of questions rises about whether the world can act quickly enough to prevent climate breakdown, one lesson from recent history suggests rapid action is possible. The ozone layer, a... To quote from the site.... All very good. However I believe what wasn't known upon its discovery which is known now, is that the hole in the ozone layer is actually a naturally occurring phenomenom, In fact the article above looks a little strange when you read about what happened a year and a half later.. Record-breaking 2020 ozone hole closes PUBLIC.WMO.INT The record-breaking 2020 Antarctic ozone hole finally closed at the end of December after an exceptional season due to naturally occurring meteorological conditions and the continued presence of ozone depleting... What makes me curious is the difference that was seen between 2019 - one of the smallest holes to have registered - and 2020 which saw one of the biggest ever. And the latter came in a time when the industrial activity of the world was probably the lowest it had been for some years Anyway.....that aside, in the forty years of measuring the size of the hole over the Antarctic that occurs annually (so I believe) - and the one that occurs on a leer scale over the Arctic - has any correlation been established between the size of the holes and any knock-on effect of the weather? Or is it simply the size and strength of the pole vortexes which determine the size of the hole. Are SSWs more likely to occur in times of larger holes and a weaker vortex, and even if it were the case, would the size of the hole play any significant part or would the strength of the vortex be the dominant factor?

There is nothing that will ever be said to be "proof" of climate change reversing. The article below outlines unusual events that have happened in the world that have taken place after a year of air travel reduced to levels last seen in the 1980s. There is nothing in terms of our climate or weather that is increasing with more intensity than the reporting of it, and the need to associate it with impending disaster. If the weather events of 1920-1930 had been presented with the same amount of sensationalism as every weather events of the last ten years has been, the idea of climate change rapidly overwhelming the world would have become an easy sell back then at a time when hardly a plane was to be seen in the sky. My tuppence Europe's unusually warm week breaks temperature records | Europe | The Guardian WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM Mild end to February saw Germany record sharpest temperature rise in a week, going from -23.8C to 18.1C

I literally meant the finish, looking at the 30th :)

Well both March and February turned out to be considerably warmer than it looked like they would finish after 20 days of the month, but I think we can be reasonably certain now that April will not have such a dramatic turnaround. Nevertheless despite its coolness it, along with March has not played ball with my 1713 comparison, so now I have moved onto 1915 - which produced an annual CET of 8.96C - as my next comparison for a sub 9C year. It looks like this April which I've estimated finishing at 6.8C will put them back on track though both taking a different daily path!