Timmytour

Brian Glaze....the Doctor Harold Shipman of meteorologists! In the article In this article two weeks ago.... UK weather forecast: Britain to bask in balmy 20C heat as chart turns orange - new maps | Weather | News | Express.co.uk WWW.EXPRESS.CO.UK BRITAIN could bask in 20C heat this month, a forecaster has claimed, as weather maps show the country turn orange in the balmy temperatures.

Everything will change when we get one, or maybe even more really significant volcanos erupting!!! Hope we find this volcano before it goes off again...! The massive volcano that scientists can't find WWW.BBC.COM It was the biggest eruption for 700 years but scientists still can't find the volcano responsible.

Three days on the same page tells its own story! To think just six weeks ago the longest a page seemed to last was three minutes!!

It's the year after, 1997, I remember for being drab. Moved into a house and my future father-in-law (without any consultation with me!) came round while I was at work and laid a new lawn! His instructions were to keep it well watered. I thought the weather would do that naturally but I remember i being a long dry March and April without it being particularly nice! I got married at the end of April and of course that's when it decided to start raining! On the honeymoon in Italy I remember hearing reports of it snowing during the Mayday bank holiday back home.

I'm on a work call. Colleague living in Berkshire has been talking about what a lovely day it is. Chorus of groans from us more towards the east. I've had to stick the heating on....

Looking at the months in the 21st Century as they rank in order of warmest to coldest out of the 362 years (for Jan and Feb) that we have mean CET monthly data for... HOT = Ranks in top 20 Warm = Goes up to top 75 Above Average = Goes up to top 181 Below Average = Up to the top 250 Cold = In the coldest 112 years October stands out with the most "HOT" months, no cold months and only one month out of 21 that has not made the top half of the warmest Octobers. November is not far behind. Every month has had at least 15 years of "Above Average" or better. But. compared to other months in the warming stakes, February, April, June and July are the most disappointing, However April at least has produced a fair few "HOT" months with June the most disappointing in that respect.

I remember doing a lot of walking in March and April 2012 and most of it in lovely weather. I was off work then but started a job in May, so I probably didn't notice the summer as much!

Assuming the 5.1C stays stead and becomes the mean CET for the first 14 days of March, then the difference in Mean CET between the first 14 days of March and the first 14 days of January converts to this... As in so many other measurements the rise in the mean is noticeable between the late Seventies and early 2000s, though is less pronounced, with, of course, the rise in January temperatures offsetting the difference. I would say as well the growth in the difference that can be seen takes place earlier than some other indicators. However, the's been a steady decline in the last few years back down to the levels of 100 years ago, to before the point in time where there was a sustained period of a much smaller average difference. I wonder if its indicative of a change back as it's something I've seen regularly in such charts. I don't mean we are reverting to the equivalent temperatures of 100 years ago, but it's more in relation to the patterns settling down again after the significant temperature rises of the 1990 and early 2000s. Maybe global warming has peaked?

Some models are coming out with runs which would give March every chance of producing a second half of the month (16 days) colder than the first half of the month. But this is by no means an unusual occurrence.... The above diagram shows the difference in the average mean CET between the second half of March and the first half of March with the dips below zero representing those years with colder second halves. It might actually be said we are due a March with a colder second half, as we have now had 5 consecutive years without one. Since 1878, the longest such run was one of 10 years which ended in 1952. There has only been one other run of more than 6 years (7 years ending in 1975) and, in addition to those two runs, only two others have gone more than 5, with the current run threatening to make it the fifth such run. Maybe you wouldn't expect to see it so such much the other way around but there has been, in the same time-frame, a run of 6 and two others of 4 with the most recent ending in 1981. In fact that more recent run came in a period that saw 8 of of 11 months of March produce a warmer first half, a run that started in 1975 after the aforementioned run of 7 years of successive warmer 2nd halves. That run of 8 in 11 is the principal reason that by 1994 we had seen a 20 years period that delivered over 50% of colder second halves, the only time that has happened.

just noticed I left that information out! Sorry Roger I'm using thirty year rolling averages

Comparing the three lots of 10 day periods in March upto 2020 (ignoring the 31st) .....the rolling mean CETs from 1907 are.... I wonder what it was in the atmosphere in the forty years between 1940 and 1980 that created the degree of differences that existed then that don't exist to anywhere near the same extent before or afterwards? From the late 80s all periods show the relentless march upwards though it's notable that the last ten days is only just catching up with previous highs, the middle ten days is soaring to new heights and is remarkably very closely aligned to the last ten days, and though it too reached new heights, the first ten days seems to have peaked just after the turn of the century. But nevertheless it's noticeable that the first ten days of March is in a similar position to where the last ten days of March was 100 years ago

Ok........at present my curiosity regarding the possibility that this year will provide us with the next sub 9C Annual mean CET - and the first since 2010 - has got me looking currently at the year of 1713. For the comparison figures to date I am only basing March on the first 9 days of 2021, but some model runs currently suggest that it might not rise substantially from its present value.... If 2021 was going to follow 1713 it would put most months in the 30th percentile of their mean CETs, with April, July and November particularly cold relative to their norms. That said, September in 1713 was relatively warm even by today's standards and October and December were not far off the long term average.

I think if the last 9 days of February had been replaced with the first 9 days of March, the mean CET for February would have ended up below 4C

A relatively chilly first 10 days of March. more commensurate with the 30 post-war years than the last thirty years....

To be updated as and when..... THIS SIDE OF SUMMER Last Day Heating On For 24 Hours..... 14th February ...I don;t envisage putting it on again for 24 hours until we are on the other side of October at least. Last Day Heating Put On For Even Part Of Day...... 10th April.... I think we will certainly experience another cool to cold spell and I don't rule out a white Easter. Working From home makes it that little bit more necessary to have the heating on when there;s a slight chill so this year will probably stretch out further than most. AFTER SUMMER First Day Heating Goes On After Summer Recess...... 20th November..... I'm guessing I'll be back in an office by day by then and it won't really feel the need to switch the heating back on until the first frosty night of the winter comes along

There's no chance of there being a winter nirvana while Knocker is back posting on this thread......but it is good to have added confidence in what the weather is actually going to be like over the coming few days now is he back with his thoughts on the models!

I know what you mean......even my early attempt at reverse psychology failed.....or was too successful!

There was an upward movement in annual CETs in the 20th century compared to the 19th century, but the extent of the shift upwards from the early 1990s has been remarkable!

February was 2C warmer than January. Since 1800 there is around a 24% frequency of Februarys which were at least 2C greater than January. The last thirty years have a percentage which has climbed up to 20% which - outside of the weird 75 year period from the late 1700s - is pretty standard fare. A rolling 30 year record low of just 10% was reached in the late 70s and the experience of that probably colours the expectations of quite a few on here I expect. However it's now happened three times in the last five years which is the first time that's happened since 1883 and perhaps indicative that we are heading for rolling 30 years peak frequencies not seen this side of the Second World War! Rolling 30 year frequency of February CETs at least 2C warmer than Januarys

February tuning out to be the warmest month of the winter. Who'd've thunk that back on the first weekend of the month!!!!

Well I honestly thought after I put up this thread that I had put the curse on the theory that I was laying out. After 18 mild Decembers since 1987 (ie a CET => 5C) had only produced one cold January ( =< 3.5C ) and one cold February, which occurred in separate years, I felt confident that our chances of seeing a cold January and February following on from the 19th such mild December was slim. Lo and behold January came in cold, followed by what looked like it was going to be a freezing cold February. But of course the turnaround in February has been amazing! To think it now could end up being the warmest month of the winter is little short of astonishing.....who would have been brave enough to forecast that as we went into the first weekend of the month???!!! So despite picking a year to outline something that hadn't happened for 19 years, only to see it then happen, I remain confident that, in our current climatic pattern, the theory that a mild December will be followed by two winter months that are not particularly cold is one that still holds water. What was a 5.5% frequency over the last 33 years has now just under 8% in the last 34 years, but it certainly remains low enough for me to lean towards erring on the mild side of my CET predictions for the first two months of the year, if the preceding December has come in mild. Unless we get an explosive volcanic eruption in the meantime!

Based on what's happened in the last 250 plus years of a declining flow, I would not be convinced that winters are going to get colder!! The science of Climate Change is in the collated statistics of what has happened. I find there to be very little validated science in many predictions that are made regarding what will happen as a result of Climate Change

Funny enough last week I felt I had a cold coming on but out of an abundance of caution went to have a Covid test - which was negative. I got Covid at the back end of last March in a mild form and actually felt pretty good after it. And I couldn't remember having a cold since. This was a bit of a temperature and a slight "head cold" feeling. It disappeared at the weekend but came back again during this week and with a streaming nose to boot for a little while. I still think it's just a cold but my sister, a former nurse, suggested it might be hay fever because it went and came back. I've never considered myself prone to hayfever before so perhaps there is something to that. But I have always thought people who suffered from it had blocked noses. I honestly cannot remember the last time my nose was too blocked to breath through it, which funnily enough was something I used to get a lot with or without a cold or hay fever! I still think I've got a bit of a common or garden cold that is struggling to reach its natural end, but seeing your comments about hayfever did get me thinking.

Do people traditionally get caught out by the number of days in February for their March guess? As in they see its the 26th of the month and, in automated mind mode, still think there's four or five days of model watching left before they need to submit their guess?

Indeed..,, for many who would usually go skiing in late February / March, the Covid lockdown might be a little bit of a blessing in disguise! I see the temperatures in Ischgl where I've been the last two years out of three are 13C today and around 9C to 11C with no snow for the rest of the week. While I know that doesn't necessarily impact that harshly on conditions further up the mountains, I'd feel mighty disappointed if I didn't see it snowing in my resort going at this time of the year!! Even up top it's 3C today! Seems to be a notable decline in temps in a week or so, so perhaps the cold block has one more show of strength left in it......