Timmytour

Looks like you finish with a flourish though! :)

Just today I noticed two trees in the field next to where I live which have barely any green on them as yet. I wish I'd got a picture of them at the start of December to show the contrast!

When was the last time the Sheffield figures finished above the UK mean CET? Not far off this month!

Hurricanes Grace and Odette will be the ones to look out for this season..... I'd put them in my team if there was a fantasy hurricane league!

Did the weed-ahead forecast make any mention of a high?

You just know that after last year's perfect weather for sitting outside a pub when we weren't allow to go to the pub, it won't warm up until 17th May when, after five weeks of freezing our KPs outside the pub, we are finally allowed to go inside it!

10.7C and 77mm please

I find such figures unthrilling. The amount of money a disaster costs is not indicative of how worse present disasters are compared to previous ones. It's been thirty years since we have had a volcano erupt with a VEI of 6 or more. The Icelandic one in 2010 was only a relatively small one but the costs associated with it were probably more significant than Mount Pinatubo. Does it mean volcanos are getting worse? Most definitely not! Today Swiss Re have come out with a report that suggests global GDP could drop 18% by 2050 without climate mitigation action with economies in Asia set to be hardest hit. When companies start buying up frozen wasteland in Greenland I start to believe in climate change making as much of a dramatic impact as we keep being told it will make.

Seems to be like a genuine warm up is being put back to May 17th......to coincide with when we are allowed back inside of a pub!

Looking at the current models, it's a good job you said "it almost certainly won't" and not "it will never be" !

is that the A1 corridor?

i agree regarding global impact. I just wonder if the location of La Soufriere might be a factor on on how weather systems that ultimately impact upon us develop. Am I right in believing we are in a fairly deep solar minima now?

La Soufriere Volcano in St Vincent has exploded into life causing havoc for those in St Vincent and even impacting the sunshine and beautiful beaches of Barbados. NPR Cookie Consent and Choices WWW.NPR.ORG Its last three explosions were in 1812, 1902 and 1979 The average annual CET for the ten years preceding each explosion was greater than for the ten years of and succeeding the explosion. I wonder if the comparison of annual CETs for 2021-2030 against 2011-2020 will make it four times in a row?

Avoid the hot numbers!

Tumbling! I think I went about 7.7C for this month. If my recent form is anything to go by, expect to see that as the figure to the 27th, followed by a warm up to 8.5C by the end of the month!

I am throwing caution to the wind now. This is as a result of being flushed with success over my Easter prediction made two months in time which nearly came good, and the feeling that I am, at last, on a roll! (Warning, the roll may have already stopped!) What I am looking at now is how comfortable high pressure is beginning to look over Greenland. So I am rushing into making this prediction. It will be a feature for many months to come. It will wax and wane to some extent but generally have establish a strong presence that will endure to the end of the year and beyond and will rarely be interrupted. I'm not sure, or predicting what this will mean for summer, though I would expect the odd plume or two to develop. i think we could end up having a particularly mild October. But here's what I mainly predict Winter 2021 - 2022 will be a memorable one for those that love the cold and the snow It will be one that sets in earlier than any we have seen for the previous 10 winters and will rival 2010 for severity, and surpass it for longevity. There will be Murr sausages enough for everyone! If I have ever previously made predictions about winter, I've been more inclined to be pessimistic than anything else. But this time I have this feeling in my bones already. I shall spend the summer on Amazon and Ebay, snapping up cheap sledges!

Those damn anomalies are always, but always, spot on in the winter months when they suggest it will be mild as the GFS 10-day and even 5-day outlooks are promising us an English Lapland!

I'm rooting for your anomalies mmr.... I want to be sitting in the pub garden with just a t-shirt on instead of having to dig out the ski gear I bought last year from deep deep storage!

People would be moaning that there is no Scandi high....

I look at the models and think below average. I look at this, remember the last two months, and think something above 10.5C has to be the form horse!

This could turn out to be a month like 1990.,, a month of extremes with highs and low and not many average days. If it all ends up in a May similar to one that followed April 1990 I doubt there will be many complaints! 31st March to 3rd April 1990

Not just people.....the models are guilty of it too!!!

Fingers crossed, but for once I might have posted something in the model forum that wasn't that far out!

Based on what Karl is showing above, the next monthly record to go could be the lowest daily mean CET for an April day (since 1878).....if the 5th ends up colder than the 0.5C registered in 1917.

In the last 142 years there has only been two occasions on which the mean CET for the 5th April has been more than 7C lower than for the 1st April. Oddly they occurred in successive years...1989 and 1990. The models make it look as it this year is going to have a good go at making it the third such occasion.